Rugby games don’t come much more important than this. At the
end of the 6 Nations Championship, one of England or Wales will lift the
title, with a Grand Slam on the cards with an English victory, and only a
second title since 2003 will come with a defeat of less than 7 points, although
it will be the hollowest of victories in the rapidly progressive Stuart
Lancaster era. As for Wales, the Championship is somehow still within reach
with a victory of 7 points. England haven’t lost a test match by double figures
since 2011, but the very last side to inflict defeat upon them by such a margin
were the Welsh at the Millennium Stadium; And to top it all off, former Wales
coach Warren Gatland has said that a ‘third of his squad’ – some 12 places –
for the Lions tour to Australia is still up for grabs. Colossal looks like an understatement.
At the end of the first championship Saturday few would have
believed Wales – who had also suffered a truly dire Summer and Autumn-after
their Grand Slam triumph last year - were in with a chance of coming second,
let alone retaining their title, following a truly inept first half against
Ireland. However barring that 40 minutes, the reality of the situation is that
Wales have played as well as, if not better than, any of the sides in the championship
including England, and it may not be an overstatement to suggest that they’ve
reached the same level which saw them win their third Grand Slam in 5 seasons
since week one.
The 16-6 victory in Paris and 26-9 win against Italy wasn’t
pretty but underlined the mental strength that Wales have regained after such a
disappointing period and with well over 40 points in their last 2 matches and 7
tries over the whole tournament. Their defeat against Ireland is the only 6
Nations match they’ve lost in the last 2 years, and that even came with the
team at a mental low and several key figures missing.
For England to be in this position after the disaster that
was the 2011 World Cup is a great achievement alone, and the pre tournament
favourites have at the very least built upon that spectacular demolition of New
Zealand, which some people suggested Flattered them in the circumstances. An
early demolition of Scotland – which included plenty of attacking rugby
supplied with proper intent – suggested really good signs for England contain
in the same vein but that fluency hasn’t been seen in any of the three games
since. Conditions against Ireland weren’t conducive to any kind of running
rugby but they were outplayed for long periods by France and looked as dire as
they’ve ever been against Italy last weekend.
A lot of this is explained by the fact that Since
Lancaster’s appointment as coach, England have become a team adept at
controlling situations at the end of close games, but it’s a big worry that
Wales’s one defeat in the last two years in the 6 Nations Championship came at
the hands of an Ireland side which ran the ball from wing to wing for 40
minutes and any overly conservative play could be severely punished. In this
context it should also be noted that a tremendous Irish backrow and forward
performance bought them the quick ball they needed to play with such
confidence.
Since week 1 England haven’t been the force in the loose
they were against the All Blacks or Scotland, and going against the uber mobile
Welsh backrow of Tipuric, Warburton and Faletau which has dismantled each
counterpart it’s faced, and while only a fool would try and pick holes in
Robshaw, Croft and Wood as individuals, they’ve not combined well as a three so
far this championship in term of providing a platform for the backs. Owen
Farell and Ben Youngs have done an excellent job so far and should prove far
more incisive than Care and Flood were against Italy, but barring Alex Goode,
England have struggled to create all championship and even against Italy they
butchered several certain tries early on.
It shouldn’t be forgotten that England have made huge
progress over the last 18 months, but in Wales they face the acid test of the
progress they’ve made over that period and the finest of margins will decide
today’s match. With that in mind, a bet on the match outcome doesn’t appeal
given our hefty outright stake on England to take the title and also to score
the unlikely 28 points they’d need to cover a points mark of 119. Wales have every
chance of wrecking England’s Grand Slam hopes but whatever the occasion it
promises to be a tight one and the best bet may be the 8/13 on less than 3.5
tries. England have scored just twice
since their opening win against Scotland, while Wales themselves may be the
highest tryscorer but have scored no more than twice in one game since the
first day. A closed roof should see both teams try to run it but no points will
be passed up and under 2.5 also makes appeal; there are also some powerful
stats to suggest looking closely at England/Wales in the HT/FT and trading the
draw is a must.
Advice
3 pts under 3.5 tries (8/13 general)
1 pt Under 2.5 tries (13/8 Ladbrokes)
Already Advised
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