3.20 Cheltenham Festival
Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) (Class
1) (4YO plus)
Winner £227,800
Advice: 1 pt each/way Grandouet (9/1 general)
Balder Succes: Never saw the best of him as he fell at
Cheltenham and Punchestown Festivals but there was plenty to like about him
beforehand, winning three starts on the bridle; Not the same horse this season
and easy enough to pass over. 
Binocular: Outstanding when winning this race in 2010 (third
the year before) but never got into things when out of his ground last year and
been seen just once since, when clearly in need of run behind Hurricane Fly at
Leopardstown; Never beaten that rival in his three meetings and ground turned
against him in latter days (best on fast surface) and percentage call to
oppose.
Cinders And Ashes: Impressive when falttening the last yet
still winning Supreme Novices Hurdle last year, although disappointing in two
starts since; Had no answer to either Countywide
Flame or Darlan this term, although connections argued that he didn’t like heavy
ground (won as a novice on it with ease); Hard to get too enthusiastic. 
Courywide Flame: Stayed best of all to win the Triumph
Hurdle last year (form working out OK) and performances have been outstanding
since, barring his defeat as favourite in the Christmas Hurdle when they didn’t
go fast enough for him early on; Outsped by Rock On Ruby on better ground at
Doncaster and while he has more going for him here, looks exposed now. 
Grandouet: Always been talented and began to come of age
properly last season with impressive wins in Haydock conditions hurdle and also
a dominant display in last year’s International Hurdle; Only had the one runs
since thanks to leg problems but that a hugely encouraging second to Zarkandar
giving 4lbs in International Hurdle; Worry that he missed his intended prep in
Kingwell but still has a massive chance 
Hurricane Fly: So impressive in Ireland for so long and
finally made it to Festival when winning 2011 Champion Hurdle from Peddlers
Cross; Testament to class that he’s been beaten only once since, but that a convincing
defeat (5 and a half-length second) to Rock On Ruby last year in this; Wins
since haven’t proved much – beaten just nine horses – but ground won’t be a
problem and not unduly at the mercy of any pace situation in race; Still opposable
on balance though. 
Khyber Kim: Runner up when Binocular destroyed them in 2010
(then won Aintree Hurdle impressively) but never got back the same form since
and now 11yo; Reappearance run behind Zarkandar was a fine one but got 8lbs and
beaten easily; Other days for him and appears past his prime. 
Rock On Ruby: Largely unheralded until his excellent win in
this last year, where he followed decent gallop set from Overturn and never
looked like being caught; Race fell kindly for him on that occasion but no
denying that connections only had eyes on repeat since and no hint of a fluke
last year; International Hurdle run best ingored as he clearly badly needed it
but soft ground very much his nemesis and that’s the worry today.
Zarkdandar: Disappointed badly when fifth but united by what
was only a steady gallop and then found to be sick, like many of stable’s main
horses afterwards (fell at Aintree); Three wins from three this season,
including a hard fought 2 length win over Grandouet (with Rock On Ruby well
behind) here in December (Old Course) on heavy ground; Badly in with both those
horses and been noted that he wants a test of stamina but recent rain will make
it so and hard not to think he’s got and outstanding chance with everything in
his favour.
VERDICT: The recent rain is a big positive for those who believe
that Hurricane Fly is ‘back to his best’, although on the formbook he’s proven
nothing since and it’s hard to believe that he’s a bombproof favourite.
ZARKANDAR was disappointing last year but today’s test couldn’t be more
different and with the ground having
turned against Rock On Ruby and GRANDOUET having missed his prep (albeit
being well worth a saver), he looks to have the perfect chance to make amends,
with his preparation this year having gone to a tee; 7/2 is still a decent
price if you didn’;t get on through the season, with the 14/1 we took in
December leaving us sitting pretty now. The lack of potential pace is a worry,
but it’s worth remembering that he won a race that had no pace and he should be
close to the front, if not leading, today. Grandouet missed his prep in the
Kingwell but he still looks overpriced on a bare reading of the form and makes
each/way appeal.
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