It’s been long known as ‘The Race to the Sun’, and for many,
the long road to the Tour De France begins today with Paris Nice, the first
major stage race of the European season and one with a history of being a key
Tour guide even this early in the season, with two time winner Alberto Contador
and Bradley Wiggins having done the double in recent years.
This is the first real European test for those looking to stake
their claim for the overall title at this year’s Tour, and last year’s fifth
Tejay Van Garderen (left) looks a worthy favourite to end what’s becoming a
frustrating succession of near misses in stage races with victory here. Also
fifth in last year’s edition of Paris Nice, Van Garderen underlined his
reputation as arguably the most promising young talent in road racing when
upstaging teammate and defending Champion Cadel Evans on his way to fifth in
last year’s Tour off the back of an exceptional first week time trial – when
beaten by only Wiggins, Froome, and Cancellara – while also showing his prowess
on the last summit finish and in the final time trial, beating Evans on all
three occasions and eventually finishing two places and more than four minutes ahead in fifth.
Evans himself was said to be sick at the time and has
reaffirmed his leadership challenge for this year, but Van Garderen is one of
the most progressive talents in world cycling and has a record that is nigh on
impeccable in terms of consistency and improvement; Since 2011 he has finished
2nd in the Volta Ao Algarve, 3rd in the USA Pro Cycling
Challenge, 5th at the Tour Of California, 7th in the
Volta Ao Algarve, 5th in this last year, 2nd in the USA Pro Cycling
Challenge, 4th in the Tour Of California and then 5th in
the Tour De France. He was a long way behind key rival Lieuwe Westra in last
year’s renewal but all the signs point towards him being a much improved rider
now than he was last year, when he lost 1:15 on the final time trial up the
C’ol d’Eze, and he should be far more prominent upon the uphill finish towards
Nice – where Westra was a surprise winner for many of the big names - than he
was last year, with an impressive BMC team (including Gilbert) potentially
riding for him.
The potential worry is that he may struggle for pacing – a
key issue of his in the past – on the Col D’Eze (one of just two stages that
will really change the race) but he’s a year older and wiser and his second
place finish in the Tour De San Luiz - including a strong time trial, along
with excellent finishes on all the summit finishes - was hugely encouraging considering
that was all the way back in January.
Even with Froome, Wiggins, and Contador absent, Van Garderen
has a fierce battle on his hands thanks to the presence of young talents Lieuwe
Westra, Robert Gesink, and the absurdly overpriced Andrew Talansky, all of whom
have top class stage race records. Considering his Romandie second – where
Wiggins had no more than a second in hand at the finish of the Time Trial - and
Vuelta A Espana 7th from last year, it’s amazing to see Talansky as
big as 14/1 for this prize, even in the light of a low key reappearance at the
Tour Mediterranean. A strong time trialist who can handle any gradient of
climb, he needs serious considering, even moreso at 14/1 considering he has the
fourth best grand tour finish here.
Westra arguably has the best early season form courtesy of
his third in the Volta Ao Alargave, where he was third to the top of the Alto
do Malhão behind Sergio Henao and Rui Costa before being unable to live with
Tony Martin, which was understandable over the flat course. The ¾ for a top 3 finish looks well worth
taking if you want to support him although 9/2 for a win is extremely tempting
on last year’s form.
Gesink was a place and around a minute ahead of Talansky in
Spain last year and had it not been for rotten injury luck, would probably have
often closer than fifth or sixth to a grand tour, and with his strong time
trialling ability proven – it helped him win last year’s Tour Of California – he
makes the favourite’s choice very difficult.
Of the others, Nario Quinatana is an explosive talent but
would want a stiffer test over the week for his talents, and Richie Porte is
well suited towards this kind of stage race as his Volta Al Algarve win last
year, but it’s Thomas De Gendt (left) who deserves attention at an astonishing 80/1 He
didn’t set the world alight at the Volta Al Algarve, but his Giro second is the
best finish of any here in a grand tour and his stage win last year was
exceptional. The 16/1 he podiums is the most tempting price on offer so far,
and he looks worth supporting in match bet markets, not least to beat Andreas
Kloden, who should not be as short as 1/2 to beat him over the course of the
week.
Advice
2 pts win Tejay Van Garderen (7/2 general)
1 pt Thomas De Gendt top 3 finish (16/1 Sportingbet)
Match Bets
6 pts Liewue Westra to beat Richie Porte (4/5 Hills)
1 pt Thomas De Gendt to beat Andreas Kloden (7/5
Sportingbet)
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