Barcelona have become synomonus with European glory over the
last 5 seasons but on all the evidence seen so far, are very much the underdogs
to get to the last 16 against AC Milan tonight following their 2-0 reverse in
Italy two weeks ago. That wasn’t the first time the Catalans have been turned
over on foreign soil – before the game we explored their poor record against
sides in knockout football on foreign soil – but Sulley Muntari’s late goal has
put an entirely different complexion upon tonight’s tie.
In the last decade, four teams have gone with a similar lead
to Milan's into the second leg, and on each occasion they made it through to
the next round. Among teams with any sort of two-goal over that period, (2-0,
3-1 or 4-2) 10/12 have won the tie. Barcelona’s task tonight is simple. Win by
three goals, or go out. In realistic football terms, this means two things;
They must win 3-0, or 4-1 – other scores are possible but very difficult to
fathom. For a team of Barcelona’s quality, scoring 3 is not impossible, but at
the same time their much overlooked defensive deficiencies make it hard to
believe that Milan don’t have a very high chance of scoring at least once
tonight.
In their 13 home La Liga games this season they’ve conceded
just 10 goals, but they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in nine of those games
despite winning 12 of them. In the group stages of the Champions League, both
Celtic and Benfica scored too. Barcelona had 72% of possession in the first
leg, but only had one shot on target and never threatened Christian Abbati’s
goal barring one half shot from Andres Iniesta late on. Barca have not scored
more than twice in any of their four games since the first leg either, although
two of those were against Real Madrid, a side that have worked out the
defensive model required to shut Barcelona down to an absolute tee. However at
the weekend they struggled badly in getting two goals – one of them a late one
thanks to Lionel Messi – against a Depor side far inferior to this Milan one.
Messi will be on from the start here and Xavi’s recovery
from fitness is a massive boost, but long story short, Barcelona have a
mountain on to quality and no result in the history of matches between these
two would see Barcelona go through. The 4/6 on Milan to qualify looks solid,
but an even better offer is Bet Victor’s moneyback guarantee that all correct
score, first/last goalscorer, and scorecast bets will be refunded if Barcelona fail
to quality. With the home side having to go all out from the first minute gaps
should surely be present, and a dutch of the 3 and 2-1 home scores could literally
be a bet to nothing at their respective prices.
Advice
1 pt 2-1 Barcelona (19/2 Bet Victor)
1 pt 3-1 Barcelona (10/1 Bet Victor)
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