Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Supreme Novices' Hurdle

2.05 Cheltenham Festival (Day 1, Race 1)

William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £68,340

Ante Post: 1 pt each/way My Tent Or Yours (20/1 Paddy Power,29 December) 1 pt each/way Dodging Bullets (20/1 Coral, 16/1 general, 16November)

Advice: 1 pt each/way Champagne Fever (6/1 Hills, Skybet, 7/1 general)

Cause Of Causes: Finally landed big handicap at third time of asking, winning from far back in valuable 2m event at Ascot by 4l from Petit Robin, but long way behind My Tent Or Yours at Newbuy and hard to expect that to change.

Champagne Fever: The outstanding bumper horse of last season, compensating for Leopardstown reverse in emphatic fashion before winning Cheltenham and Punchestown bumpers last year, showing remarkable attitude and impressive range of speed and stamina (won from the front on good at Cheltenham, and destroyed others in near untraceable ground over C&D); Blotted copybook over hurdles when slowing to a standstill at Naas but found to be wrong there and earlier form (pushed Jezki to one and half lengths over just two miles; Could have gone harder from front) confirmed when winning Deloitte Hurdle in good style from the front; Worry that he would want further but very hard to get past, few other front runners, and soft ground could be making of his challenge; Big chance.

Cheltenian: Champion Bumper winner two years ago (form looked moderate at the time, but Cinders and Ashes and Aupcharlie come out of it) who made excellent reappearance at Doncaster in strong novice hurdle, finding lack of fitness just against him; Not impossible for him to do it but bounce factor (ran only 20 days previously) and ground (never run on worse than good to soft) potentially against him.

Dodging Bullets:  Fourth in the Triumph last year when he went like best horse in the race for much of the home straight only to falter late on (had been keen early and was then exposed when hitting the front ); Won twice in early season, doing it well when beating River Maigue in C&D Grade 2 on that one’s hurdling debut, giving 8lbs in slowly run race (not to suit) and better against when third in Christmas Hurdle, all the more creditable considering that his best form has been on  faster ground beforehand; Can take a hand but worry that he’s not been seen this year.

Fire King: Pulled up on hurdling debut and shouldn’t be good enough.

Jezki: Horse of major potential in bumpers last season (2-3, only defeat at Cheltenham) and most impressive over hurdles in going 4-4 so far, , winning Royal Bond with smart turn of foot form last season’s Champion Bumper horse Champagne Fever despite some slack jumping at times, and then blistering the opposition over Christmas at Leopardstown; Obvious chance on that form but wworry he’s not been seen since then and this far tougher.

My Tent Or Yours: Leading bumper horse last term when second in valuable events here and at Aintree (form boosted since) and looked set for same heights over hurdles when able to trash subsequent double graded winner Taquin Du Sequil at Ascot (did get weight over ideal trip but won despite pulling very hard); Same talent couldn’t get him out of trouble here when beaten by stablemate but ridden poorly there, as evidence by easy Huntingdon win and Betfiar Hurdle win off mark of 149 deeply impressive; That route been used by two recent horses for similar connections to go close here and without a doubt the one to beat; Soft ground not totally ideal, but two wins from two and seems at east on surface; Should go very close.

Ostentation: Flying too high.

Pique Sous: Third in 2012 Champion Bumper behind Champagne Fever but not run as well since, beaten on hurdling debut at 1/3 and then making amends in fairly dire race at Thurles next time; Won well at Dundalk but others preferred for this and not sure this round would suit.

Puffin Billy: Looked special when winning first four starts by combined distance of 35 lengths (varying ground from good to soft – heavy) so disappointing that he was so below par at Exeter latest with foot problem; Clearly talented but had beaten little beforehand and has to answer those questions today.

River Maigue: Built on bumper promise tenfold with nice hurdle second to Dodging Bullets (was having first start over hurdles, but getting 7lbs) and impressive win since at Kempton; Beaten by Triumph hope Far West at Ascot latest but that was a farcial race and hard to beelvie that was true form; Can go well.

Un Atout: Subject of glowing reports even before he won bumper by 24 lengths at 2/7, and two hurdles starts taught us nothing more about him, although one can’t fail to be impressed by style of his victory on both occasions; Ground turning soft a big plus for him here although this his stiffest test by quite some way; Can still go well.

VERDICT: The anticipation is over for another year, although the ground is set to be the softest for many years. Ante post tip and hot favourite My Tent Or Yours still has a fantastic chance and does have two wins from two starts on soft (including his Betfair Hurdle romp) and should take the beating, but can’t be backed at just 2/1 today given the horrendous record of festival favourites in this race (Cue Card, Cousin Vinny and Duguib have all beaten taking excellent credentials into this race); One could hardly put you off him but the value has gone. Jezki holds solid claims based on his two Grade 1 wins but he’s not been seen this year and might struggle to hold earlier form with CHAMPAGNE FEVER, who looks every inch a stayer but has had a miracle with the ground and will be mighty hard to pass going front he front in a race with few front runners. At 6/1 with Hills (who pay 5 places each/way at ¼ the odds, an absolute credit in a race with just 12 runners) he looks an each/way bet to nothing and his proven form (especially his bumper win last year) gets him the vote over stablemate Un Atout. Dodging Bullets was another very strong antepost fancy, but he too hasn't been seen this year and would prefer better ground although his chances are not to be discounted.