Tirreno-Adriatico 2013

The road to the Tour De France is a long and hard one but there are clues aplenty on offer at this year’s Tierrno-Adriatico, with the two outstanding favourites ifor this year’s title in Alberto Contador and Chris Froome (below) going head to head for the third time in a major stage race and the second time this season. The two have given us some fantastic racing so far and should do so this week – although it’s hardly between them, as you’ll see later – although it’s fairly surprising to see Froome the 3/1 second favourite of the two given that he beat Contador by 27 seconds in the Tour Of Oman when the two last met.

Contador’s superb grand tour record in general, along with his Vuelta win last year when he had the Briton 10 minutes in arrears, suggests he is vastly superior to some (or at least tin this context it’s the early season form that counts and Froome’s fitness – the benefit of a far smoother period of winter training than last year – may give him the extra edge he needs so far, while the short, flat time trial at the end is just about long enough to make a proper difference, and we already know plenty about Froome’s prowess in the TT. With an 4 second head start over Contador after the team time trial, and the sheer length of the Prati Di Tivo (14.5 km at 7.1%) sure to suit him the best of the 5 main contenders for the overall victory, making the 3/1 on offer with Ladbrokes and Sportingbet the best bet in the GC.

Cadel Evans’s form in Oman was far more encouraging than anything he showed last year – when he suffered badly with illness and chest infection – and being the best placed of the GC contenders after the TTT, he should be respected here, but Froome had his measure easily in Oman and has done on pretty much each occasion they’ve meet, and in terms of the win, Froome makes more appeal.

Joaquin Rodríguez took the queen stage in the Tour Of Oman and could do so here – Stage 5’s numerous punchy climbs and short, but very sharp finish should also suit him – but the final ITT may be likely to see him crumble at nearly 10KM with no rises of any note, so he looks a better bet for those two stages rather than the overall. Considering he’s targeting the Giro D’Italia this year, one would hope to see an improved performance from last year’s winner Vincenzo Nibali, who won courtesy of going solo up the Titti Di Pravo and then having just enougb in the final time trial, but he was a long way off the pace in Oman and looks like he hasn’t come to the boil just yet.

Advice

2 pts Chris Froome (3/1 Ladbrokes,  Sportingbet)