This is only the 4th stage of the Volta a
Catalunya but with this being one of the only two mountain stages any gaps
today are highly likely to be defended until the end with stage 5’s Category 1
climb coming long before the finish, so today should see an all out fight
between the four top quality Grand Tour contenders who currently have a gap on
the rest. Any one of Alejandro Valverde, Joaquin Rodriguez and Bradley Wiggins
could easily land today’s stage and the crucial bonus seconds that come with
it, but they were al left for dead by Nairo Quintana (above) late on yesterday and the
Colombian looks to be the best value to take his second stage win today. The
main help towards Valverde’s bid for glory overall this week, Quintana beat
today’s favourite by 6 seconds yesterday and on a similar stage – today’s Port
Aine finale may by some 6KM longer but parts at 12% will prove a nasty test for
many – he should take the beating. The worry from a betting perspective would
be that Valverde will want the 10 second winning bonus, but at some 30 seconds
back Quintana doesn’t present a huge threat to their position and looks too big
at 4/1 with Bet365 or the 24/5 offered by Pinnacle. Either Joaquin Rodriguez or
Alejandro Valverde could win, but they were beaten fair and square and make no
appeal at 2/1. At 9/1, Bradley Wiggins does make some appeal and was fanatic in
settling the race alight in the final kilometre, but with our outright investment
safely nestled a good result today will do, with the rest looking to be a step
behind as far as winning is concerned.
Advice
1 pt Nairo Quintana (4/1Bet365, 24/5 Pinnacle)
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