Qatar Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner €2,288,400
Advice: 1 pt win Sanois (9/1 general), Shareta, 16/1 Sportingbet),
Kesampour (89 PMU)
Already advised: 1 pt Orfevre to win Prix Foy and Arc (8/1
Totesport, 16 Sept)
Sea Moon: Looked as if he was set for the big things that
last year had promised when super impressive Hardwicke winner at Royal Ascot
but not quite as good in King George (behind St Nicolas Abbey) when given lot
of ground to make up; Can do better than that here and not without potential
but not sure he wants the ground this soft to show best despite 2yo win on
heavy and has landed very poor draw in stall 16; Others preferred. 
St Nicolas Abbey: Completed revival of sorts when empathic
winner of Breeders Cup Turf last year after fifth in 2011 renewal of this; Just
the one win since but that close to career best when super impressive in
Coronation Cup in midseason, and no shame in either of his three defeats since;
Withdrawal of Danedream and Nathaniel make him one of form horses but ground
has gone well against him. 
Meandre: Sixth in this last year but has gotten better
since, improving from first pair of defeats to defeat well below par Shareta
and Danedream at Saint Cloud before winning German Group 1; Just a length
behind Orfevre in Prix Foy and form chance but winner from that day just as
likely to come forward. 
Mikhail Glinka: Always been capable (Group race successes at
Meydan and Baden Baden in March and August respectively) but this far too hard.
Robin Hood: Pacemaker: 
Orfevre: Japanese Triple Crown winner (first since 2005 when
Deep Impact, 3rd in this race without a prep, did so) who added
Arima Kinen to that list to underline his class n world stage; This season not
quite gone to plan but would have won Hanshin Dahiten but for erratic running
style and two length defeat of Rulership in Tarazuka Kinen suggests that poor
showing inbetween can be written off;
Had prep run here in Prix Foy and quite impressive in winning cosily 
Aventino: Orfevre’s pacemaker.
Shareta: Third to Galikova in Vermille and then second in
last year’s renewal at 66/1 when belying pacemaker status; Has actually kept
that form going through this year, second of four in Grand Prix De Cloud when
ahead of Galikova, herself making her seasonal debut (strong edition in
hindsight, not run to suit) before outstaying The Fugue when taking deserved
Group 1 win in Yorkshire Oaks before then being most impressive winner on Arc
trials day with Vermille romp; Lot going for her this year and does handle cut
although she’s one of many who would have liked it better than this. 
Haya Landa: Once ahead of Shareta this year (Chantilly in
April over 10f on ground that was also testing) but no Group race win yet so
impossible to fancy. 
Solemia: Hard to see her playing a major role based on the
act that Shareta had her so easily held when third in Vermille last time
despite her succession of career bests after career best this season. 
Bayir: Made it four from 5 in impressive style when quickening
away smarty to land to land the Secratariat Stakes at Arlington, adding to the
Prix Eugene Adam, both races over 1m2f; Second in Niel but well outspeed and no
soft ground form of note, so hard to fancy here. 
Kesampour: Always been highly rated (Derby was said to be
high on agenda at one point) and lost no castle when giving away his unbeaten
record in the Prix Du Jockey Club, coming wide when fourth behind Saonis; Well
beaten in Prix Niel last time and hard to fancy on that basis, although he does
have three wins o testing ground to his name which means that he is of a second
interest here. 
Camelot: Long been touted as future superstar since last
Autumn and lived upto those expectations with superb wins in Guineas and Derby,
utterly thrashing opponents in latter, which left him on verge of historical
Triple Crown only for him to find Encke too good at the end; Theory that pace
was too slow hard to agree with in hindsight given his Guineas win and hard to
think he didn’t have every chance; Had looked outstanding 3yo beforehand but
none of his generation won all aged Group 1 and while he may have gotten plum
draw in 5 and assistance of Frankie Dettori, hard race in St Leger the last way
he’d have wanted to prepare for this in ideal world and ground has turned well
against him of late; Extremely opposable favourite. 
Masterstroke: Bred for this (Grandson of 1993 winner Ubran
Sea, dam half-sister to 2009 winner Sea The Stars); Can’t fail to be impressed
by way he closed down solid yardstick in Gatewood for Grand Prix De Deauville
win but that still requires more and draw in 17 a horror pick; Has won on soft,
now sure how he copes with this surface. 
Ernest Hemingway: Had arrived at Dante with big reputation
thanks to 10 length AW April maiden win but flopped at York and not seen since;
Likely pacemaker. 
Sanois: One of success stories of this season, moving from
AW wins to Group 1 success when finding clearest route to win Prix Du Jockey
Club; Doubts over that form (many others, especially subsequent Group 1 winner
Imperial Monarch) given nature of the race but impressive Niel win showed it
was no fluke and as such, very attractive proposition for this, even moreso
until the rain came down; Classic generation not great but does have fine turn
of foot, and has won on ground described as very soft; Still interesting. 
Yellow And Green: Best
of 3yo fillies in Vermille when making steady late ground to finfish fourth,
that continuing a good run of form which had seen her win Group 2 beforehand;
Good draw and might be in better shape turning for home today, but untested on
anything softer than good and hard to support today. 
Great Heavens: In here (supplemented) upon news of
Nathaniel’s withdrawal from race earlier this week; One of the most progressive
horses this season, moving from maiden win through the ranks to Group 1 success
in Irish Oaks, impressing more each time with her powerful finish; All of this
come on slow ground, although most notably has come into her own on testing
ground, winning Lancashire and Irish Oaks on soft ground; Still has some
improving to do but ground come for her like no other so has to be considered.
VERDICT: The complexion of Europe’s best race has rarely
changed so much in the last week, with the withdrawals of Danedream, Snow Fairy
and Nathaniel robbing the race of the three most popular contenders beforehand.
This had seemingly left the road clear for ante post fancy ORFEVRE to claim an
elusive first Arc success for Japan following his clear cut success in the Prix
Foy, but then he conspired to get stall 18 and an autumn deluge turned the
ground to heavy. Admittedly he has won a Japanese Derby on soft ground,
Dalakahani won on sticky ground from a wide draw and three of the horses on his
inside (Aventino, Ernest Hemingway, and Robin Hood) but it’s still
disconcerting, although the 8/1 double on him winning his trial and today is a
nice posse to be in. With a draw of stall 5 – there have been just two winners ,
Frankie Dettori on board and a decision taken to run, Camelot is now favourite
but he’s one of the most opposable of recent years. This year’s 3yos haven’t
won a single all aged Group 1, only 1 horse from his Derby has won since, and a
hard race in the St Leger left him no excuses for defeat (a route which no
horse has used since Alleged in 1977), while to top it all off, the ground has
turned against him spectacularly – he has a win on soft to heavy, but he was
all out and rolling form side to side to beat Born To Sea in a small Irish
Derby field. He looks more like a place lay than a winner. The trends point to SANOIS
as a saver and he’s selected on the basis of his Niel win and rapid improvement
this year, although his heavy ground form isn’t what it could be either and
might blunt his turn of foot. SHARETA has soft ground form this (which can be
upgraded give as it came over 10 furlongs), was second in this last year, and
looks a better horse this time round, so looks worth saving on at the least,
while KESAMPOUR might not be the worst outsider at a staggering near 90/1 on
the PMU. He has three wins on soft to heavy, including when beating Sanois
before the Jockey Club. The one horse who is actually going to enjoy the ground
is Great Heavens, who must come into consideration.
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