They say that good things come to those who wait and
Clermont – who have probably had more than enough of waiting for a first
Heineken Cup title – can land it in their 101st year to make it a
truly special anniversary for the small town. The perennial bridesmaids have
slowly but surely began to turn promise and talent into actual success,
breaking a straight run of three runners up finishes in the Top 14 when beating
Clermont in the title, having found extra reserves to turn over Toulon in the
semi-final after extra time, and their record in Europe has also improved
sharply over the last five years.
Challenge Cup winners in 2007, Clermont were beaten
Challenge Cup semi-finalists two years ago when unlucky enough to draw Leinster
in the pool stages but reached the semi-finalist last year only to be so
cruelly denied 19-15 by the three time winners and favourites for a fourth
title this year in one of the great European contests. That defeat was fair and
square but the intense game that Leinster received (had it not been for Wesley
Fofana’s try being misgrounded then it may well have been them who went onto
beat Ulster) shows Clermont’s power and poise on the biggest stages in Europe.
Beaten semi-finalists by a total of just 7 points on two occasions when looking
unstoppable last year, they’ve replaced leaving giants Lionel Faure and Alexandre
Audebert with like for like replacements in Damien Couhly and Benson Stanley,
although the key addition may well be Napolioni Nalaga, who returns after a
stint with the Western Force in Super Rugby. It was upon the back of his tries
that Clermont went to the top 14 title in 2010 (that being the last of four consecutive
finals) and his return after a conspicuous absence is a huge boost to a side
already chock full of talent.
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| Wesley Fofana provides verve and power in equal measure for the improving and dangerous Clermont |
Their star studded back division of Aurelien Rougerie, Morgan
Parra, Wesley Fofana and Julien Malzieu - along with Welsh star Lee Byrne and Sitiveni
Sivivatu is amongst the strongest in Europe. Parra is one of the finest recent
fly halves in the game, Rougerie arguably already has the same status, Fofana
was the most impressive French player by a mile in last year’s 6 Nations until
he got moved out onto the wing for their practically unwinnable final game
against Wales and Juilen Mazileu has a record of record of 12 tries from just
29 European appearances. This doesn’t even take into account the fine and
experienced David Skrela, who needs just 17 points to become only the seventh
player to reach Europe’s 500 point club.
Lee Bryne has recovered some of the form which had seen him talked
about as one of the best full backs in the world before injuries curtailed his
run with the National side – his single handed destruction of Saracens remains
one of the finest performances of last year’s competition. Sitiveni Sivivatu is
just one of many class finishers in the side, while John Marcel Boutttin is no slack
finisher either.
Their forward line has enough grunt to put pressure on any
pack in Europe – Leinster had never been under so much pressure in a knockout
situation last year – and the Frenchmen are the only side who have even beaten
Leinster in 18 games through the competition. A December double pool header
between the two is sure to be one of the moments of the tournament and does
give the danger of an away draw, but Clermont are a much improved outfit to the
one that lost three quarter finals away from home in recent years (one when
going down by just a point to Leinster) and destroyed Saracens at Vicarage Road
last year, so it’s not the end of the world if they can’t top their own pool. At 8/1 they look a fantastic outright bet and the 5/1 on them reaching the final is well worth some ante post insurance as well.
Reigning champions Leinster are obvious favourites and
extremely tempting at 4/1 for a side that have lost just once in their last 18
games in this competition. They’ve ‘been there, done it and got the T-Shirt’ to
say and 4/1 could begin to look very large approaching the latter stages of the
tournament.
As the old adage goes, ‘Don’t fix it if it aint broke’ and
nothing’s changed at Joe Schmidt’s ledger side, so they once again have to be
the favourite with a settled squad. At the top of the list is Jonathan Sexton –
the best fly half in the competition - while the near ageless Brian O’Driscoll continues
to run the show at centre alongside his partner in crime Gordon D’Arcy to create
the most deadly gameline passing partnership in Europe, while Rob Kearney is a
lock for Lions fullback based on the form that he’s shown in Europe over the
past three years.
Isa Nacewa’s explosive talent brought a new dimension to the
Irishmen last season while the grunt of the Irish pack which can stop the best
in the world when they get it right on the day (see their epic win over Australia
in the Rugby World Cup including Cian Healy, Sean O’Brien, Jamie Heaslip and
Mike Ross, has always proved vital on the road (not forgetting Richard Strauss)
Any side that can bring in Cronin and Van Der Merwe off the bench must have
some squad and it’s only in the technical sense that we’re betting against Leinster
retaining it for a third straight title.
Toulouse are still the most successful side in the history
of European Rugby and it would be foolish to forget them, for all that the tide
in French Rugby in terms of squad depth seems to have turned towards other big
names in the Top 14. There have been rumours of Guy Noves’s side somehow losing
their touch but only Clermont could keep touch with them last season and they
showed all of their dogged class and experience once again to edge the Top 14 final,
making it two straight wins in a row at home.
They’re good enough to win this if they want to and deserve significant
respect, although their own group is a very tough one with both Leicester and
Ospreys and last year was their poorest Europen campaign since winning the
title in 2010. Had Harlequins not fumbled several chances in already horrendous
conditions at Connaught, then they wouldn’t have made the quarter finals and
they surged ahead against Edinburgh only when they had two extra men on the
field, only to be reeled in and end up deserved losers. With Leicester and Ospreys more than capable of topping them on their off days on the road, and Treviso also not a pushover, they look rickety 6/1 outright shots.
Look to Toulon, beaten by just 6 points in the Top 14 and Challenge
Cup finals of last year, for a second chance of a French winner. Relative maidens
on the European stage – this will be just their second Heineken Cup appearance –
Toulon have a very strong European pedigree for such novices. They’ve twice
finished runners up in the Challenge Cup and their only appearance in the
Heineken Cup saw them beat Munster to the top of their pool, so clearly know
what it takes on the biggest stage of them all.
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| Johnny Wilkinson has players of equal measure around him to spear a strong Heineken Cup challenge |
Those Toulon sides are nowhere near as strong at the current
outfit. Mourad Boudjellal’s desire for the Bouclier de Brennus knows no bounds
and has led to a galacticos style spending spree to bring his side upto speed.
Chris Masoe Nicolas Durand, Freddy Michalak, Maxime Mermoz, Andrew Sheridan, Gethin
Jenkins, Guy and Delon Armitage are all players of the highest quality to complement
a side which had enough to beat Clermont on their way to the final of the
French Top 14, while the creative side of the club has been taken to a new dimension
on paper with the addition of a rejuvenated Federik Michalak from the Sharks to
give real strength in depth to the playmaking role that has been so crucial in
Europe of late.
Johnny Wilkinson has proven that he’s still got what it
takes to decide big games – his winning drop goal in last season’s Challenge
Cup semi-final is typical Wilkinson – and Matt Hayman is also well upto the
highest standard. It’s frankly scary when you consider that this is a side that
already boasted names such as Bastareud (who should provide a special partnership
with Maxime Mermoz at centre), Botha, Bruno, (JM) Fernandez Lobbe, Shaw, Masoe
and Van Niekerk as well. The strength in
a pack that may well consist of Andrew Sheridan, Gethin Jenkins, Bakkies Botha
and Simon Shaw is frightening and with the kickers to put away the chances and
creatively to open the best of Europe, Toulon need serious respecting.
Of the others, Harlequins head a weak looking English challenge on paper
although they were unlucky not to top Toulouse last year after finding the most
horrendous conditions in their crunch encounter with Connacht, having beaten
the French Champions on their own turf. A best of two encounter with Biarritz should
decide things although the Challenge Cup winners are in poorer shape this
season than last and head to the Stoop a vulnerable side. That said, outright
prices of 12’s done like much value on paper. Munster have twice won this competition
recently and still have a strong record but far more value can be found in
counterparts Ulster, who were well beaten finalists last year but still did themselves
proud – especially when beating them convcingly on their and should go close
once again if beating Northampton to their pool – something you sense they’re eminently
capable of given their home record in Europe and how close they pushed Clermont
in the Pools last year.
Leicester are potentially interesting but have fallen into a
Group of death once again, and last season’s Pro 12 winners Ospreys must be respected
but are hard to trust ahead of the big two in their group, let alone going all
the way. Last but not least, it’s amazing to see Edinburgh at 200/1 given their
exploits last year, although those who are tempted by that price should take
the 8/1 they win their pool, although it’s hard to see them turning over
Munster at Ravenhill – which has to be done to win the Group.
Advice
6 pts Clermont (8/1 general)
2 pts Toulon (7/1 general)
2 pts Clermont to reach final (5/1 Skybet, Ladbrokes)
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