Anyone could tell you that it takes a truly special horse to
win the Melbourne Cup carrying topweight- No horse has carried more than Think
Big's 58.5kg in 1975 to win the Melbourne Cup since metrics were introduced in
1972 – so the task facing Dunaden in retaining his title is a historic one.
However I could also tell you that it takes a special horse to win the Caufield
Cup from the widest draw with top weight, and as such 6/1 quotes about Dunaden
are understandable, for all that he’d have to break the weight carrying record.
 |
| Dunaden is thoroughly deserving of topweight in the Melbourne Cup and should go close despite being too short for an ante-post recommendation |
That said Mikel Dezangles’ stayer is arguably better this
time round than last year. Since winning last year in that dramatic stretch
drive, he’s since taken the Hong Kong Vase and then shown up with the best of
Europe over 12 furlongs in the Grand Prix De Chantilly, Hardwicke and King
George. He’s been outpaced on all three occasions (including his Jockey Club
fourth), but that’s understandable for such a stayer and it’ll take some
performance to stop him winning again, for all that his giant weight and short
price don’t make him much if an ante post proposition.
Americain (far left, with white jacket) is only a couple of points bigger than his
conqueror in not only last year's renewal but the Caulfield Cup, but was as
unlucky as any horse not to win last year and comes here significantly better
off with his conqueror - to the tune of at least 2KG, or 1.5lbs for just over a
length - over a trip which suits him down to the ground. Hopefully this year he
isn't given as much to do by Gerald Mosse (who has had one of his finest
seasons ever of late) in which case the 9/1 still offered by SkyBet,
Boylesports, Stan James and Coral could look rather big by the morning if the
first Tuesday in November.
Mount Athos has had the race earmarked since the summer, and
coming from a stable that has done everything but win this race, so quotes of
around 8/1 are fair, for all that our pick has been there and done it while
having also had the required prep in the country which is such a help when it
comes to International raiders.
We can’t do a proper Melbourne Cup preview of any kind
without drawing attention to the fact that Red Cadeux – who could so easily
have been the defending Champion for this year but for a nose – is around 3lbs
better off with Dunaden, but their subsequent European meetings have suggested
that Mikel Dezangles’s stayer is clearly the superior horse and while Ed Dunlop’s
charge is double the price, A better drawn Americain looks to be a bigger
threat.
Considering Americain’s win two years ago, Shahwardi’s
Herbert Power Stakes win has to be taken very seriously. Another testament of
Alain De Royer Dupre’s remarkable skills when improving horses, the very fact
he’s come from second in a 12 furlong amateur riders race at Chantilly to
winning that Group 2 so well has to be respect, for all that Gatewood may well
have won had he gotten a clear run that day.
Green Moon has run in the right races to be considered on a
trends basis – three winners in the last 11 years ran in the Dato' Tan Chin Nam
Stakes, while the four Turnbull Stakes winners have placings of 4014 – but he
runs in the Cox Plate tomorrow and it remains to be seen if this is a target,
and even then he might well leave his race at Monee Valley. Galileo’s Choice –
ain impressive winner of both his starts on the Flat this year following a
light campaign over hurdles during the winter is also tempting - given Dermot
Weld’s brilliant season so far and is worth a second look.
I can’t see Maluckyday improving enough from his flat
Geelong Cup showing to take a hand, so of the first 10 in the market, that leaves
My Quest For Peace as the value alternative at 25/1. Fifth in the Caulfield Cup
– a race that 5 of 10 winners ran in before last year, finishing 14230 – he’s
been largely ignored despite his fifth in the Caulfield Cup. Admittedly he had
a great draw compared to Duanden and Amercain, but it was his first run since
winning at Glorious Goodwood, where he had Gatewood behind in a strong Group 3
field. With Cumani having such a great record in the race barring winning, 25/1
looks to be a generous offer.
Gatewood might not even get into the race but his effort in
coming a close second to Masterstroke at Deauville was a marker for just how
far he's come this season and his impressive Geelong Cup win – one of the
strongest Cup trials for travelling raiders who want to have a crack at the
race, having been taken Dunaden and Americain on their way to recent Cup glory,
along with second Bauer in 2009 - over fellow traveller and strong Group 2
second Brigantin shows that Australian racing suits him down to the ground.
Even the hastily reduced 12/1 would be worth having onside, as he'll be right
at the bottom of the weights should he make the lineup, but he's only 36th on
the list and needs more than 12 to drop out to make it into the race. Brigantin
(30th) wouldn't have enjoyed how the
Geelong panned out and should enjoy a step back upto 2 miles, for all that he
too needs a few to drop out, along with
Lost In The Moment (29th), Prairie Star
(31st), Shahwardi (32nd) and Ibicenco (42nd).
Advice
2 pts each/way Americain (9/1 general)
1 pt each/way My Quest For Peace (25/1 Bet365)
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