Finding the top try scorer is always one of the trickiest
parts of betting in the Heineken Cup and this season’s tournament being as well
contested as ever, there are an outstanding list of candidates who could be
considered strong contenders for the list. Trying to narrow one down is very
difficult but the winners of this ward since 2006/07 have all had one thing in
common; They either played for the finalists, or had the lowest ranked team (usually
an Italian newcomer) during the pool stages. Predicting the finalists is never
easy and matter of opinion, although it will be no surprise to see Leinster
make yet another showpiece appearance. The
Irishmen – who should improve a lot on their opening performance when pushed
all the way by Exeter Chiefs – have only Isa Nacewa at 50/1 or less, something
that reflects their ‘pool of death’ with Clermont, Ospreys and Exeter Chiefs.
Nacewa’s dynamism does make him a tempting proposition even at that price,
although the incredible difficulty of his pool and the injuries Leinster
currently carry make it hard to recommend him.
Clermont will have to deal with the same problem, but having
backed them to go to the final it seems silly not to get at least one of their
backline onside. With so much choices, anyone of the 5 outside backs could be
considered, but 66/1 about Wesley Fofana (below) can’t be ignored. France’s biggest
threat by far during the 6 Nations, until being moved onto the win for their
last match against Wales, Fofana was close to the heart of everything that
Clermont did last season and in physical games, is sure to be one of the bigger
threats that the Frenchmen have in trying to break down the Scarlets, Leinster,
and Chiefs though the middle of the park. Centres have done well in this competition
before – Brian O’Driscoll once top scored in this competition with 5 tries – so
he seems to be a bet to nothing.
Naipolioni Nalaga’s return to Clermont this season gives an
already immense backline even more potential strength in the backs and while
that’s reflected in a price of just 14/1, he and Sivaitatu are hard to separate.
Nalaga had already scored 3 tries in the Top 14 though, and as such gets a
tight vote, although either would be a big runner.
Toulon don’t have an absolute banker in their group for a
try romp, but they’ve scored 248 points so far in the Top 14 and can be expected
to win all of their games in Pool 6, thus securing a home ranking at the end of
the pool stages. Matt Giteau has the most tries of anyone from the club so far,
but Delon Armitage shined against Montpellier with his two tries and should get
plenty of opportunities both home and away, so makes a lot of appeal seeing as
he may well go deep into the competition.
And last but not least, Harlequins Mike Brown, who may not
have got in on the fun against Birratiz at the Stoop on Matchday one, but does
get a double header against debutants Zebre, has to be included. A romp against
a small side has often helped the top Heineken Cup Tryscorer – Timonici Mantanavou
got two against Connacht last year, and Northampton Saint’s Paul Diggin helped
himself to 4 in a 37-0 rout of Edinburgh to seal his title, and Tommy Bowe got
to help himself to two in a rout of Vidana – and Mike Brown’s 7 tries in the
Premiership last season confirms his finishing prowess, so he seems to be a no
brainer at 50/1. Alex Cuthbert may already have three tries to his name, and as
such is an understandable favourite, but looks far too short at just 9/2 with
so many games left. Timonici Matanavou
may be in one of the pools of death, but at the least scored an incredible
eight tries in this competition last year and can’t be as big as 20/1 on that
form. He may have sat out the first game against Leicester but bagged 5 tries
against English opposition last year and leads the Top 14 tryscoring charts.
Advice
1 pt Dylan Armitage (16/1 Ladbrokes)
1 pt Mike Brown (50/1 general)
1 pt Wesley Fofana (66/1 general)
1 pt Naipolioni Nalaga (14/1 Ladbrokes)
1 pt Timonici Matanavou (20/1 Paddy Power)
No comments:
Post a Comment