QEII Stakes 2012

3.30 Ascot

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Sponsored By Qipco (British Champions Mile) (Group 1) (Str) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner £567,100

Advice: 3 pts Elusive Kate w/o Excelebration and Cityscape (13/8 Hills), 2 pts win Excelebration (10/11 general)

Carlton House: Not quite reaped the riches that his 4yo campaign has threatened to deliver, although he’s only had three runs and no shame in being beaten by So You Think in Prince Of Wales’s Stakes here; Poor when fourth in Summer Mile but no pace that day proabaly did for his chances and this been the target since; Worries about his speed but on hold by ground, which he has won maiden by eight lengths on; Interesting if not with bit to find.

Cityscape: Top class miler who came good with spectacular Dubai romp; Not won since but had valid excuses on all occasions apart from second to Excelebration (ahead of Elusive Kate by just a neck) in Jacques Le Marois; Firm ground and concession of 3lbs to Wise Dan proabaly did for him at Woodbine latest but soft ground not a worry, and has to be taken seriously here.

Excelebration: One of the most talented milers around, generally regarded as second best miler in the world behind Frankel last season; Since been destroyed twice this season by Frankel, notably when trying to match strides with him in Queen Anne (tired badly on to be beaten 11 lengths); Won seven of his last eight starts without him in the field and with Group 1 wins on ground bordering on heavy, the one they all have to beat, especially after Jacques Le Marois win, when he beat Cityscape and Elusive Kate fair and square.

Indomito: Flattered to be fourth in the Queen Anne, where many paid for trying to chase Frankel (not least Excelebration); Probably better than he was able to show at Deauville but Turkish Group 2 third as good as he is.

Side Glance: Arguably had best ever season, highlight being Queen Anne third (big effort but flattered) and third in York Stakes, form of which has since been boosted by Asfare coming an excellent second in Arlington Million; Since come second twice and others make more appeal here.

Most Improved: Built on earlier promise of Dewhurst third when tough winner of St James’s Palace Stakes (chased strong pace but always doing enough) but substandard 3yo crop and disappointed since, mostly when behind Excelebration and others when last in the Jacques Le Marois; Poorly ridden latest but

Sovereign Debt: Improved hand over first this season, announcing himself as Group performer when close, but in no way unlucky second to Tulius group 3; Eighth in Joel Stakes, but so much more needed.

Elusive Kate:  Had promised much when clear cut winner of Prix Marcel Boussac last year but return had been put back at least two months by soft ground, so incredible effort to come second in Falmouth on seasonal comeback on ground bordering on heavy; Then given excellent ride when completely dictating terms in Rotschild to beat Golden Lilac and once again excellent from the front when third in Jacques Le Marois behind Excelebration and Cityscape; Should go well again.

VERDICT: The only time that EXCELEBRATION has been beaten without Frankel is on his 2yo debut, and he has won two Group 1’s from seven races on all other occasions. He has three wins on soft ground or worse, and when last seen, beat Cityscape and Elusive Kate convincingly, fair and square in the Jacques Le Marois, so is a very strong and deserving favourite even at odds on. Some have anticipated improvement from Carlton House with a strong pace and soft ground, but Elusive Kate was only a neck behind Cityscape in the Jacques Le Marois and looks a very strong favourite in a market without the top 2.