Qatar Prix Chaudenday 2012

11.55 Longchamp

Qatar Prix Chaudenay (Group 2) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner €114,420

Advice: 1 pt win Verema (7/1 Blue Sq, 888 Sport), 1 pt win Top Trip (4/1 general)

Canticum: Progressed with each of his four runs, most notably when a neck behind Verema over C&D in Prix Lutece, having previously been just a nose behind Only A Pleasure on first tart in Listed competition; Likely that soft ground might bring out better performance so should be considered.

Shantaram: Would have to be right up there on basis of his early season form which saw him run Derby runner up and Grand Prix De Paris fourth Main Sequence to a half-length, and since underlined that with two victories, one the Group 3 Bahrain trophy, both on soft ground at Newmarket; That said, does want it much faster than it’ll be today but should be there or thereabouts nevertheless.

Tenebaum: Already won over 1m6f on heavy ground, so no worries on score of either ground or the trip here; Quite impressive when 13/10 favourite and defeating older horses Prix De Reux from wide draw but not so good in admittedly harder Grand Prix De Deauville while placed emphases on speed and got blocked in his run late; Should go well here.

Smoky Hill: From last year’s winning yard and won over this trip on heavy ground but that only a minor event and extremely hard to see him making the jump in class.

Only a Pleasure;  Meant to be second string of Fabre contenders but was only just behind Verema and Canitcum in Group 3 last time; Not sure that he’d really be keen on soft ground (does have the one win on it) but not dismissed at all.

Mysterious Man: Looked very progressive when he was blocked for a run when posting career best fourth off 80 in the Melrose at York last time out; Should improve once again for that but this a vastly different task and needs more

Valdo Bere: Well behind Verema, Canticum, and Only A Pleasure latest and looks well exposed here despite decent  enough form earlier in the season.

Les Beaufs: Way he was easily held at Listed level suggests that he has an awful lot to find here.

Top Trip: Beaten by Prix Du Jockey Club winner Kesampour with ease but found his form at longer trips, sweeping home for relatively easy Group 2 win at Chantilly (1m3f) before fifth in Jockey Club’ Should be taken into account that he had to come widest of all from last to first and hardly had ideal trips since in Grand Prix De Paris and Deauville, so should take the beating here with this trip and ground not going to be a bother.

Verema: Finished behind four of her rivals in Listed Prix Michel Houyvet but turned that form on its head returned back to more running track when beating Canticum by a neck to land the Prix De Lutece over course and distance; Should go well here for trainer with fine record in this event and fancied.

Pale Mimosa: Raced just the once as a 2yo but deeply impressive when landing Galway maiden by 16 lengths and then when taking York Listed event in quite impressive style from Sequence; Runner up let the form down when only sixth next time out but clearly going forward, should stay the trip, will handle the ground and should go well.

VERDICT:  At the start of Arc weekend the ground is said to be no worse or better than soft, although some more rain is forecast before the big day. The two day de facto European Championship start with the longest race for 3 year olds in France, and the Aga Khan’s VEREMA might be the value to continue his fantastic record at this meeting. Since 1996 the Aga Khan has had 4 runners in this trained by Alain De Royer Dupre, and three have won with the other coming second, and Verema won the very race used by those to prepare for this event in the Prix Lutece (beating Canticum and Only A Pleasure) over this course and distance. 7/1 looks a very generous offering along with the 11/8 for a first 3 spot. As a saver, TOP TRIP makes more appeal than Tenebaum given the distance between them in the Grand Prix De Dauville, with the ground not a worry and the distance sure to help him this yet. Pale Mimosa, Tenebaum and Shantaram are all respected.