Tuesday 2 October 2012

Champions League 2012/13: Group A


Dynamo Kiev (500/1 Tournament, 20/1 Group)
2011-12 Champions League: Lost 1-4 on aggregate to Rubin Kazan in third qualifying round, DNQ for group stages
Manager: Yuri Syomin
Captain: Oleksandr Shovkovskiy

It’s been a long time since Dynamo Kiev lost 4-2 in that classic semi-final to Bayern Munich and they look set to make it another year without reaching the knockout stages of this season despite strengthening the side significantly over the summer.

The additions of Taye Taiwo, Raffael, Marco Ruben, Miguel Veloso, Niko Kranjcar, and Andriy Bogdanov add a whole new feel to the side in midfield and attack, giving them the thrust they’ve lost out on to over the past seasons in Shakhtar domestically. There’s still a core of Ukrainian national team players in there – Yarmolenko and Gusev to name but two – but they looked a step or two behind in the Euros and a lot comes down to their forward duo of Andriy Yarmolenko and Brown Ideye, Scorers of 13 goals apiece last season while both netting once during the playoff.

They were slightly fortunate to get past Feynoord and Mochengladbach – a Luke De Jong own goal really tipped the scales in their favour late in the first leg - on their way here and that steep step up in class was emphasises when PSG tore them apart on Matchday one, ending the game early and raring to a dominant win.

Verdict: Added over the summer but not good enough to take on the best. Group stage exit and maybe Europa League

Dynamo Zagreb (2000/1 Tournament, 80/1 Group)
2011-12 Champions League: 4th place in Group D, DNQ for knockout stages
Manager: Ante Čačić, (second season)
Captain: Sammir

Few teams have suffered as humiliating a group stage campaign as Zagreb, when they went into the history books for losing all of their games last year with a goal difference of -19, with some even asking about match fixing after their 7-1 humiliation at the hands of Lyon. No team has had a worse campaign in the history of the competition and they didn’t exactly get off to the greatest start pre-season when losing hugely influential playmaker and scorer of one of Dinamo's crucial first-leg goals against Maribor, Milan Badelj, to Hamburg, leaving far too much responsibility upon the shoulders of penalty taking Captain Sammita and the trigger happy Duje Cop, who scored in two of the last three Champions League games for Dinamo this summer.

Winners of the Croatian Championships since 2006, Zagreb are a well-established side at home but have struggled badly on the big stage and with no major additions apart from Cop, look set to struggle this year as well as they did last time around if their opening day 2-0 defeat to Porto is anything to go by, with Paris St Germain and trips to Kiev to come.

Advice: Might not be as humiliated as they were last season but may still end up pointless. Group stage exit

Paris St Germain (20/1 Tournament, 8/11 Group)
2011-12 Champions League: DNQ
Manager: Carlo Ancelotti
Captain: Mamadou Sakho

Ever since Nasser Al-Khelaifi's Qatar Sports Investments took over 70% of the club's shares last summer, he’s had this very competition on the list from the start of his tenure at the head of the club, and if their opening day 4-1 win against Kiev was anything to go by, then they’re very well prepared for their assault at the competition after an eight year absence.

A massive spending spree over the past two summers has brought world class quality to the side which is looking to establish themselves as top dogs in not just France but also Europe following the arrivals of Ezequiel Lavezzi, Marco Verratti, Thiago Silva and Zlatan Ibrahimovi all from Serie A, adding to a side which could already boast quality such as Javier Pastore and French internationals Jeremy Menez and Nene, who was second top scorer in Ligue 1 last season and already had three goals this time around.

The arrivals of Silva and Ibrahimovic give PSG arguably the best centre back and striker in world football and it was clear that during a stuttering start to the season (only made his first appearance against Kiev) that his influence was missed and a centre back pairing with Alex already looks like a formidable one based on a run of three straight wins to nil in Ligue 1. Gregory Van Der Wiel’s arrival gives Ancelotti extra width down the flanks with the solid Christophe Jallet as an alternative, while ex Barcelona’s Maxwell has proven to be a solid addition already.

Marco Veratti had always been highly rated in Italy when playing for Pescara but he’s lit up the French league so far and is arguably one of the finest young talents on Europe based on his showings so far, linking excellently with Gameiro and namely Ibrahimovic upfront. Pastore remains as good as ever and Napoli’s Lavezzi astoundingly remains in reserve, which highlights the depth in the squad. PSG were knocked out of the Europa League by Bilbao last year but under two time winner Carlo Ancelotti a long run through the competition should not be beyond the Parisians.

Verdict: Making their return after long absence but have had few, if any, stronger squads in their history. Should be well upto the quarter finals mark and possibly further if avoiding absolute cream of the crop

Porto (6/4 Group, 80/1 Tournament)
2011-12 Champions League: 3rd place in Group G, DNQ for knockout stages
Manager: Vito Pereira 
Captain: Hulk

European stalwarts Porto – every much the Arsenal of Portugal - have made more than they’ve brought in in every single season since 2004 and they’ve done the same this summer thanks to the protracted transfer saga over Hulk’s eyewatering £39.5million move to Zenit St Petersburg, along with the exodus of Marc Janko, Alvaro Pereira, Fernando Belluschi, and Freddy Guarin.

That’s a lot of talent to lose in just the one summer –Hulk alone had 57 goals in 91 games in the past two seasons – but they’ve still got a talented midfield core which contains Joao Moutinho (one of the top targets of Andre Villas Boas’s reign at Spurs and a massive player in Portugal’s run to the semi-finals of Euro 2012) and Lucho Gonzalez – who already has three domestic goals for  Porto at the time of writing.

Hulk’s a huge absence upfront but Silvestre Varela was very impressive during the Euros for Portugal while James Rodríguez has impressed playing alongside Falcao in the World Cup Qualifiers for Colombia. Both of them should grow stronger as the tournament grows on and with such quality still in their ranks, they should fancy their chances of at least going through the group stages comfortably again.

Verdict: Lost a lot of talent but enough quality left, along with weak group, to make it through. May not go far though 

VERDICT: We’re writing this one matchday into the tournament but that benefit has clearly shown us that Porto and Paris St Germain are by far the strongest teams in this group and should qualify easily ahead of the Dynamo pair of Kiev and Zagreb, both of whom hold poor records at this level. Carlo Ancelotti’s side are making their first appearance for eight years but are filled with midfield and attacking quality through the likes of Javier Pastore, Marco Veratti and Zlatan Ibrahimovic, and they should edge the race for top spot from Porto, who have an admirably strong team given their summer departures. There’s 8/11 with Hills for PSG to win the group and that could tempt some after their opening day romp over Kiev but the 7/5 on a straight forecast makes much more sense.

Advice: 2 pts PSG-Porto Straight Forecast (7/5 Paddy Power) 

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