Pool 1: Edinburgh, Munster, Racing Métro, Saracens
This isn’t even the strongest pool on rankings but it’s arguably the most competitive – any one of the four could be considered well capable of taking top spot. Munster may have gone out at the quarter finals last season but they had won all 6 of their pool games beforehand, including a spectacular 51-36 thrashing of Northampton Saints. They come into this campaign with some indifferent form, but those three defeats have all come to the Pro 12’s elite on the road (Ulster, Leinster, Ospreys).Saracens are joint favourites in the betting and should present an obdurate challenge although this is much harder than facing an in and out Biarritz side and will take a superhuman effort to beat Munster at Ravenhill. Edinbrugh are more than good enough if showing up on their day as their semi-final run last season shows, although they’ve won just twice so far and have a much harder task than last year. Racing Metro won just one game and lost their three matches at home last season so look vulnerable anyway despite an arguable case for improvement.
Advice: 2 pts Munster (7/4 Bet Victor)
Pool 2: Treviso, Leicester, Ospreys, Toulouse
Arguably the group of death with Top 14 Champions and 4 time winners Toulouse, Premiership regular season winners Leicester, and last season’s Pro 12 winners Ospreys, while the supposed ‘whipping boys’ Treviso are arguably the strongest minows in the tournament, so this is one of the toughest groups of the lot. - Toulouse haven’t been beaten in the pools since the 2008-09 season but look vulnerable here based on their performance from last year when Harlequins and Gloucester beat them fair and square last year. Leicester, traditionally the strongest of the English sides on a game to game basis and overall in the competition, are tempting at 6/5 to make the quarter finals (either a winner or a best runners up spot will do it), although you wouldn’t want to count out Ospreys even though they’ve made a poor start to the Pro 12 season. The value might be with Leicester to qualify if they can take a bonus point off Toulouse on Sunday, which happened on two occasions with English sides last season.
Advice: 1 pt Leicester to qualify (6/5 Ladbrokes)
Pool 3: Biarritz, Connacht, Harlequins, Zebre
This looks like a straight toss between Harlequins and Biarritz, with the Englishmen making far more appeal to seal a quarter final place ahead of their French counterparts. Quins should have beaten Toulouse to the quarters last season but fell to Connacht in the most awful conditions. Biarritz have been showing the same poor form that they were last season when they finished ninth and flirtired with relgation in the Top 14. Lying eighth, they seem to be struggling once again,, enough to give Quins the vote.
Advice: 3 pts Harlequins (4/5 general)
Pool 4: Castres, Glasgow, Northampton, Ulster
Respective leaders and the last two beaten finalists Northampton and Ulster are hard to split but given the superior European pedigree of the Irishmen, Ulster are a must bet at slightly bigger prices than Northampton, who were twice beaten by rivals Munster at this stage last season. With 5 wins from 5 and an impeccable home record – Clermont, Stade Francais and Leicester have been beaten here in the past two seasons – the Irishmen look to be a top bet, with Glasgow and Castres not in the same class.
Advice: 4 pts Ulster (6/4 general)
Pool 5: Clermont Auvergne, Exeter, Leinster, Scarlets
Plenty will be tempted by the 8/11 about Leinster given their amazing record but Clermont are one of the few sides in Europe that can hope to beat them and can make it into the latter stages through either winning or coming runner up in the Pool. Leinster lead 5-1 on head to head match stats but the points total between the two in those 5 games reads 120-100 & 9-7 in points and tries scored, so this isn’t guaranteed for either side. Exeter have improved hugely and can’t be dismissed easily, while Scarelt too are no pushovers, but the December double headers should decide this and be a thing of beauty. Evens about Clermont going through to the quarters seems like too generous a price given that we think they can win the tournament, and while there’s the risk of them falling at the first hurdle, they can just as easily beat Leinster.
Advice: 10 pts Clermont to qualify (evs Ladbrokes)
Pool 6: Cardiff Blues, Montpellier, Sale, Toulon
Anything less than a walkover for Toulon would be a major surprise and the 4/7 on them with Bwin is too generous. They have one of the strongest sides in their history this season and the big names seem to be gellling just fine based on their awesome start to the Top 14, where they beat Montpellier on the road. Cardiff aren’t the same side that snuck through an easy pool last year with several experience players leaving, and Sale have more pressing issues lying at the bottom of the Premiership.
Advice: 6 pts Toulon (4/7 Bwin)
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