Korean Grand Prix 2012

It’s only been two races, but a lot has elapsed since we last covered F1 here. Fernando Alonso’s handy gap has tuned into a lead that on the face of things seems purely mathematical going by the pace that the Red Bulls have showed in the last two races, especially at Suzuka last weekend where Sebastian Vettel had a leisurely 15 seconds in hand at the end and Mark Webber managed to sneak a point from a first lap accident that should have put him out of the race.

One week on in Korea and that seems to be the same case once again, with the Red Bulls not only going 1-2 in FP2 but also dominating qualifying, and a front row forecast of Vettel and Webber is 6/4 going into tomorrow’s race. Given how they had 0.3 seconds in hand and have and an excellent record around tracks with long, sweeping corners – of which Korea contains plenty - then that must be tempting.

Sebastian Vettel – who was held up in his flying lap and lost out on pole by just a tenth of a second – is a strong favourite for a hat trick of wins and he looks a worthy one, considering that he has the skills to beat his team mate into the first corner and hold a lead, but also considering a possible team tactics move. 10/11 is fair enough considering but nothing’s guaranteed in these races and it’s another driver that has our interest.

Jenson Button may well be at the forefront of this championship had it not been for the long list of pitstop mistakes that blighted his early season charge when the McLaren was by some way the quickest car on the circuit, but a second half revival thanks to some very smart upgrades has seen him cat the forefront of the grid in nearly all the recent races and he looks value for a top 6 finish. Button starts only 11^th but was held up on his final qualifying lap of Q2 and judged on the third fastest lap of Lewis Hamilton and his own pace (his qualifying form since September reads 6-4-1-2-4-8), he would have been there or thereabouts near the front row, and there’s a feeling that he’s been unfairly ignored in the aftermath of Vettel’s searing pace over the last two days.

Button has always been a raceday specialist over a qualifying one and recorded the fastest high fuel lap in FP3, coming second only to Alonso on a lap by lap average (admittedly he did only 13 over the session), so we know that he has some of the best race pace on the grid, and this wouldn’t be the first time that he’s recovered a poor grid postion for a good result, having turned 6^th into second at Hockenheim and jumped four places from his eighth place on the grid in Suzuka (where he could easily have caught Kobayashi for third late on).

Since Hockenheim (the first GP for Mclaren’s updated car) he has form figures of 2-6-1-ret-2-4, even more impressive when you consider he looked booked for second in Monza before retirement, and while the initial value has gone out of his odds for a top 6 finish, 5/4 is still more than backable, along with the 10/11 on him winning Bet Victor’s Group B, which requires him to beat both Mercedes and Force India’s Nico Hulkenberg, something he’s more than capable of based on not only race pace but also driving ability. Either is good but we’ll split a hefty stake accordingly based on the perceived difficulty of the task at hand, and to win Group C Button may not even have to make the Top 6 based on grid spots, so that’ll get the biggest portion of our stake.

Advice

6 pts Jenson Button to win Bet Victor’s Group C (10/11)

3 pts Jenson Button Top 6 finish (5/4 general)