Glasgow (9/4) v
Ulster (1/2)
Glasgow’s powerful scrum and offloading game had Northampton
in a lot of trouble despite the bonus point loss, and back on home turf you can
expect them to give Ulster, who themselves had to use all their nous to gain a
bonus point win over Castres, a mighty game. The away side have plenty in
reverse though, and can edge this tie by the smallest of margins.
Advice: 2 pts Ulster by 1-12 points (13/8 Stan James)
Castres (4/6) v
Northampton (8/5)
Castres were awful at Ravenhill last week but are a
different animal at home, where they boast an exceptional record not only in
their hometown but also at Toulouse’s Stade Ernest Wallon, where they beat
Montpellier easily in the Top 14 playoff, and where Munster needed a last gasp drop
goal to escape with a win last season. Northampton used their speed out wide
well to gain a bonus point win last week but may be give a rude awakening this
week, although whatever way this goes is expected to be very tight.
Advice: 1 pt Castres by 1-12 points (7/4 Stan James)
Llanelli Scarlets
(15/8) v Leinster (3/5)
Scarlets were given a heavy thumping by Clermont but a trip
to the Stade Marcel Michelin is one that usually ends in failure for even the
best of European sides, and they were on top before the red carding of Morgan
Stoddard. They can give Leinster, who only just sneaked past Exeter last week
in a game that it’s easy to say should have gone the other way, a tight match
although the extra experience and class of the holders can just see them
through, along with the boost of having Rob Kearney and Gordon D’arcy back in
the fold.
Advice: 1 pt Leinster to win by 1-12 points (7/4 Ladbrokes)
Treviso (8) v
Toulouse (1/7)
Toulouse used a mixture of powerful forward graft and
experience to deny Leicester a losing bonus point on Sunday (although better
conditions would have also helped them) although the naivety of the visitors on
that occasion did help them a lot. The way that Treviso pushed Ospreys towards
the end on matchday one suggests that Toulouse will be given a very tough time
if not on their game, so the 1-12 point winning margin is of interest,
certainly more so than the 11 point headstart the Italians are getting. With
several changes made, Timoci Matanavou is back into the starting XV and looks
terrific value at 9/1 for first Tryscorer (I would also advise the 7/1 each/way
with Bet365 valuable for ¼ of 4 places), given that he opened the scoring on
three occasions in the Group stages last season and has eight tries in France
already.
Advice: 1 pt Timonici Matanavou first Tryscorer (9/1 Skybet)
Saracens (4/11) v
Racing Metro (9/2)
Saracens made a huge
statement when pummelling an admittedly poor Edinburgh at Murrayfield and they
should have more than enough to run out ready winners against Racing Metro, who
had more than their fair share of fortune in beating Munster in France. A home
handicap of just 6 points with Stan James has to be the call.
Advice: 3 pts Saracens -6 (10/11 Stan James)
Biarritz (1/100) v
Zebre (33)
Zebre have lost every single game they’ve played this season
and are likely to get a real hammering at Biarritz, who have the perfect game
to build some momentum after being well beaten by Harlequins at the Stoop last
week. A 30 point handicap should be just about in reach.
Advice: 1 pt Biarritz -28 Draw no bet handicap (4/5 general)
Connacht (3) v
Harlequins (1/3)
Harlequins already know of the dangers that Connacht
present, a 9-6 defeat having knocked them out of the competition last year, and
the best value in this game might be a tight away win. Quins were probably
beaten by the conditions as much as anything last year but Connacht still
present a real threat which shouldn’t be ignored.
Advice: 1 pt Harlequins to win by 1-12 points (8/5 Bet365)
Exeter (5/2) v
Clermont (5/11)
Clermont sit at the top of the pool with a bonus point win
over Scarlets to thank for that but Morgan Stoddard’s red card gave them the
game on a plate and they’ll need all of their might to get past Exeter Chiegs
at Sandy Park. The Chiefs were exceptional at the RDS last week and deserved
better than to lose, so it will be interesting to see if they can beat Clermont
on the road, where they’re usally at their weakest. Vern Cotter’s men lost by 1-5 points on both
their trips to elite clubs last year, although should they turn up in the form
that saw them belt Saracens 22-3 last year, then Exeter will be in serious
trouble. This looks best avoided
Advice: No bet, consider the 1-5 and especially 1-12 winning
margins for either side
Cardiff (5/2) v Toulon
(4/11)
Everything had been going swimmingly for Cardiff until a 20
point start turn from Danny Cipriani robbed them of a previous victory at Sale,
having led by 15 points. Such ineptness is extremely worrying with the visit of
Toulon, who have been beaten only by Toulouse this year and have scored 150
points on the road. A 6 point handicap looks generous.
Advice: 3 pts Toulon -6 (10/11 Paddy Power, Stan James)
Munster (1/8) v Edinburgh
(8)
Edinbrugh were blessed with a soft pool last year in
hindsight despite their great run to the semi-finals, and while Saracens were
excellent in their win up in Scotland, they were disastrously poor and got
dominated at the breakdown and in defence, areas Munster traditionally dominate.
They were woeful against Racing Metro but had the pitch to blame for Racing’s
only try and Conor Murray for the late penalty. Back on home turf, they should
be capable of giving Edinbrugh a good beating.
Advice: 1 pt Munster -13 (10/11 Ladbrokes)
Leicester (1/3) v
Ospreys (3)
Leicester were poor against Toulouse in week one, for all
that the score is a harsh reflection of how the game went – the Tigers were
right in it for long periods of the game and would most likely have taken at least
a point from the affair had Ben Youngs went for the posts instead of the tap
and go. Ospreys had to push and push hard to get their bonus point against
Treviso but sealed it late in commendable style and can give Leicester a good
game, for all that they should be beaten.
Advice: 2 pts Leicester to win by 1-12 points (13/8
Ladbrokes)
Montpellier (1/7) v
Sale (6)
Sale should have
plenty of confidence after their last gaps win over Cardiff, but a trip to
Montpellier may well bring them back down to earth with a bang. Montpellier
beat Clermont in week two of the Top 14 and have won three of their 4 home
games so far this season. They were admittedly awful in Europe last year but
showed enough at Toulon to think they can be a tough test for any side in this
Pool.
Advice: 1 pt Montpellier -11 (4/5 general)
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