Friday, 19 October 2012

Heineken Cup - 19th - 21st October 2012


Glasgow (9/4) v Ulster (1/2)

Glasgow’s powerful scrum and offloading game had Northampton in a lot of trouble despite the bonus point loss, and back on home turf you can expect them to give Ulster, who themselves had to use all their nous to gain a bonus point win over Castres, a mighty game. The away side have plenty in reverse though, and can edge this tie by the smallest of margins.

Advice: 2 pts Ulster by 1-12 points (13/8 Stan James)

Castres (4/6) v Northampton (8/5)

Castres were awful at Ravenhill last week but are a different animal at home, where they boast an exceptional record not only in their hometown but also at Toulouse’s Stade Ernest Wallon, where they beat Montpellier easily in the Top 14 playoff, and where Munster needed a last gasp drop goal to escape with a win last season. Northampton used their speed out wide well to gain a bonus point win last week but may be give a rude awakening this week, although whatever way this goes is expected to be very tight.

Advice: 1 pt Castres by 1-12 points (7/4 Stan James)

Llanelli Scarlets (15/8) v Leinster (3/5)

Scarlets were given a heavy thumping by Clermont but a trip to the Stade Marcel Michelin is one that usually ends in failure for even the best of European sides, and they were on top before the red carding of Morgan Stoddard. They can give Leinster, who only just sneaked past Exeter last week in a game that it’s easy to say should have gone the other way, a tight match although the extra experience and class of the holders can just see them through, along with the boost of having Rob Kearney and Gordon D’arcy back in the fold.

Advice: 1 pt Leinster to win by 1-12 points (7/4 Ladbrokes)

Treviso (8) v Toulouse (1/7)

Toulouse used a mixture of powerful forward graft and experience to deny Leicester a losing bonus point on Sunday (although better conditions would have also helped them) although the naivety of the visitors on that occasion did help them a lot. The way that Treviso pushed Ospreys towards the end on matchday one suggests that Toulouse will be given a very tough time if not on their game, so the 1-12 point winning margin is of interest, certainly more so than the 11 point headstart the Italians are getting. With several changes made, Timoci Matanavou is back into the starting XV and looks terrific value at 9/1 for first Tryscorer (I would also advise the 7/1 each/way with Bet365 valuable for ¼ of 4 places), given that he opened the scoring on three occasions in the Group stages last season and has eight tries in France already.

Advice: 1 pt Timonici Matanavou first Tryscorer (9/1 Skybet)


Saracens (4/11) v Racing Metro (9/2)

Saracens made a huge statement when pummelling an admittedly poor Edinburgh at Murrayfield and they should have more than enough to run out ready winners against Racing Metro, who had more than their fair share of fortune in beating Munster in France. A home handicap of just 6 points with Stan James has to be the call.

Advice: 3 pts Saracens -6 (10/11 Stan James)

Biarritz (1/100) v Zebre (33)

Zebre have lost every single game they’ve played this season and are likely to get a real hammering at Biarritz, who have the perfect game to build some momentum after being well beaten by Harlequins at the Stoop last week. A 30 point handicap should be just about in reach.

Advice: 1 pt Biarritz -28 Draw no bet handicap (4/5 general)

Connacht (3) v Harlequins (1/3)

Harlequins already know of the dangers that Connacht present, a 9-6 defeat having knocked them out of the competition last year, and the best value in this game might be a tight away win. Quins were probably beaten by the conditions as much as anything last year but Connacht still present a real threat which shouldn’t be ignored.

Advice: 1 pt Harlequins to win by 1-12 points (8/5 Bet365)

Exeter (5/2) v Clermont (5/11)

Clermont sit at the top of the pool with a bonus point win over Scarlets to thank for that but Morgan Stoddard’s red card gave them the game on a plate and they’ll need all of their might to get past Exeter Chiegs at Sandy Park. The Chiefs were exceptional at the RDS last week and deserved better than to lose, so it will be interesting to see if they can beat Clermont on the road, where they’re usally at their weakest.  Vern Cotter’s men lost by 1-5 points on both their trips to elite clubs last year, although should they turn up in the form that saw them belt Saracens 22-3 last year, then Exeter will be in serious trouble. This looks best avoided

Advice: No bet, consider the 1-5 and especially 1-12 winning margins for either side

Cardiff (5/2) v Toulon (4/11)

Everything had been going swimmingly for Cardiff until a 20 point start turn from Danny Cipriani robbed them of a previous victory at Sale, having led by 15 points. Such ineptness is extremely worrying with the visit of Toulon, who have been beaten only by Toulouse this year and have scored 150 points on the road. A 6 point handicap looks generous.

Advice: 3 pts Toulon -6 (10/11 Paddy Power, Stan James)


Munster (1/8) v Edinburgh (8)

Edinbrugh were blessed with a soft pool last year in hindsight despite their great run to the semi-finals, and while Saracens were excellent in their win up in Scotland, they were disastrously poor and got dominated at the breakdown and in defence, areas Munster traditionally dominate. They were woeful against Racing Metro but had the pitch to blame for Racing’s only try and Conor Murray for the late penalty. Back on home turf, they should be capable of giving Edinbrugh a good beating.

Advice: 1 pt Munster -13 (10/11 Ladbrokes)

Leicester (1/3) v Ospreys (3)

Leicester were poor against Toulouse in week one, for all that the score is a harsh reflection of how the game went – the Tigers were right in it for long periods of the game and would most likely have taken at least a point from the affair had Ben Youngs went for the posts instead of the tap and go. Ospreys had to push and push hard to get their bonus point against Treviso but sealed it late in commendable style and can give Leicester a good game, for all that they should be beaten.

Advice: 2 pts Leicester to win by 1-12 points (13/8 Ladbrokes)

Montpellier (1/7) v Sale (6)

Sale should have plenty of confidence after their last gaps win over Cardiff, but a trip to Montpellier may well bring them back down to earth with a bang. Montpellier beat Clermont in week two of the Top 14 and have won three of their 4 home games so far this season. They were admittedly awful in Europe last year but showed enough at Toulon to think they can be a tough test for any side in this Pool.

Advice: 1 pt Montpellier -11 (4/5 general) 

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