Dewhurst Stakes 2012

2.55 Newmarket

Dubai Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1)  (2YO only)

Winner £170,130

Advice: 1 pt The Ferryman to beat George Vancouver (4/5 Bet Victor) 2 pts Dawn Approach to win today and the 2,000 Guineas (7/1 Ladbrokes)

Ashdan: Showed immense promise in two runs so far, winning Newmarket maiden in handy style before winning conditions event at Doncaster in handy style, drawing away from decent opposition despite not getting an awful lot of cover and conceding first run; Clearly very talented and while big step up in terms of opposition on paper, must be respected.

Dawn Approach: Flagbearer of top class sire and part namesake New Appraoch, unbeaten in fve races including very strong Coventry Stakes (9 different winners barring himself have come out of that race); National Stakes nowhere near as strong but still empathetic winner and hard to see him being beaten.

Funk Soul Brother: Looked to have a lot to do when winning York maiden in good style but not matched that form in pair of Group 2 contests since.

George Vancouver: Showed all his best form in good ground, following easy maiden win with good second in Prix Morny, although bitterly disappointing when no obvious excuse, and four and half lengths behind Leitir Mor latest; Even Morny second leaves him with bit to find and passed over.

Leitir Mor: Used as pacemaker for Dawn Approach but shown more than enough form to suggest that he could be Group class in his own right even before he won 6f Curragh Group 3; Minor role only today though.

The Ferryman: No chance with highly regarded stalemate on AW debut back in July and immediately confirmed that promise when winning Tipperary maiden just a week later despite having the bit come right through his mouth late on; Seen as stable second string but would be unwise to dismiss totally.

VERDICT: Jim Bolger’s remarkable record of success in this race has seen the beginning of some great carers and DAWN APPROACH looks as promising as any, having stamped his class on this year’s 2yos in style with 5 wins of the highest quality, his National Stakes win proving to be the outstanding performance of this year. He faces a pair very promising rivals today in Ashdan and notably The Ferryman, who could have doubled his winning margin at Tiperrary had he not had his bit slip through his mouth and looks to have been underrated in comparison to his stablemate George Vancouver, who looks exposed following a poor performance behind the consistent pacemaker Leitir Mor at the Curragh last time. Given the supposed paucity in opposition to his chances today, the best value might be to back Dawn Approach to win today and the 2,000 Guineas at 7/1 with Ladbrokes. Granted, it’s only a point bigger than the price they offer now but if he wins impressively the price could collapse and with many of his closest rivals in the ante post betting looking like middle distance types , it could prove to be a very smart investment.