Racing Post Trophy 2012

3.05 Doncaster

Racing Post Trophy (Group 1) (Str) (Class 1)  (2YO only)

Winner £122,494

Advice: 2 pts place Trading Leather (10/11 Bet365), 1 pt Kingsbairns to win today and Derby (20/1 Blue Sq), 1 pt Trading Leather to win today and Derby (25/1 Blue Sq)

Birdman: Really effective on heavy ground, closing fast on Olympic Glory during the Superlative Stakes and then closing third in the Futurity Stakes without ever looking as if he’d get to the line in time; Fourth to Steeler latest and while ground in his favour, easily held by First Cornerstone.

First Cornerstone: Made impressive progress so far in just the three runs, landing Listed event at 33-1 and four runner Fruity Stakes at Curragh, both in testing conditions; This harder on ratings but handles soft ground and has commendable attitude, while notable that he travels from small yard in Ireland; Dangerous to dismiss.

Kingsbarns: Beat literally nothing in Navan maiden but impossible not the taken visually with the way that he shot clear late on in soft ground, and clearly extremely well liked given prohibitive starting price then and incessant market support leading upto this race; Trainer had 6 (including several better qualified) beforehand but fact only this representative shows says a lot for him; Has to be respected.

Sir Patrick Moore: Looked like a nice sort when winning at Newbury and Compiegne on first two stars and hardly disgraced when second in Longchamp listed contest, but long way behind standard needed to be winning this.

Steeler: Showed significant promise on first two starts when clearly crying out for a mile and best effort yet when runner up in York’s Acomb Stakes, coming from behind to give Champagne Stakes second Dundonell a good race in latter stages, where he wasn’t helped by the slow gallop; Unbeaten since, winning listed event cosily and then grinding down opposition in good style in strong Royal Lodge Stakes;

Trading Leather: Very encouraging debut when second to Battle Of Marengo (had experience, since won Beresford) and since bolted up in maiden at Gorwran before finding more to win hotly contested Autum Stakes latest; Will relish a step up in trip but form amongst the best here and has to be respected.

Van Der Neer: Looked good when landing 6f Yarmouth maiden and four runner conditions stakes at Leicester (soft), being far more in control than the winning margins suggested on both occasions but most notably last time; Deserves his place for all this is a steep step up in class.

VERDICT: One of the more intriguing renewals of a race which has produced 4 of the last 11 Derby winners. Aidan O’Brien alone has three winners since 2002 and his Kingsbairns, who comes here with only a maiden win to his name, like half of the 6 winners the stable has had. The incessant support he’s received for not only today but also the Derby next year, along with the fact he’s the only one of 6 Ballydoyle horses to run here, means he must be hugely respected but at just 2/1 (and possibly a telling 6/4 with Ladbrokes), he offers no value and the best way to get onside with him might be to back him to do the Racing Post Trophy Derby/Double at 20/1 with Blue Sq and 888Sport. Should he win tomorrow, the 14/1 left with Boylesports (which is well worth taking if you believe he’s as good as rumoured) may be chopped even further and with Dawn Approach the only horse to have won a Group 1 in the top 10 of the ante-post list, it makes sense, especially with Kingsbairns having won on soft ground already. The ground seems sure to dry out, with some strong winds forecast and no more rain expected, so TRADING LEATHER makes the most appeal for the actual race. Jim Bolger’s Autumn Stakes winner needed every yard that day but beat a highly regarded field and his second to Battle Of Marengo on debut underlines his strong form prospects, so should the ground turn good to soft his prospects would have to rise quite significantly. So too would those of Steeler, for all that the Bolger charge just gets preference for today. Van Der Neer is interesting although First Cornerstone has been overlooked to a point.