Premiership - 28th October 2012

Newcastle (1) v West Brom (3)

Newcastle haven’t quite hit the heights of last season but have been playing as well as any of the dies around them and after a strong showing at Sunderland last week, should be capable of getting all three pints from a West Brom side who’s strong start to the season has been based upon their form at home. Newcastle have struggled to beat West Brom in the past though, so backing both teams to score – an occurrence in the last nine meetings between the clubs – might be best, although the one goal winning margin in Newcastle’s favour does make appeal.

Advice: 1 pt Both teams to score (4/6 general)

Southampton (3) v Tottenham (evs)

Tottenham have found their feet under Andre Villas Boas very quickly and look excellent even money shots to win at Southampton. The Lilywhites put up a very strong fight but were downed by the extra class of Juan Mata in particular, but Southampton (for all their attacking intent) do not present anywhere near as much of a threat and the return of Bale and Demebele will be a massive lift to Spurs.

Advice: 4 pts Tottenham (evs general)

Chelsea (7/5) v Manchester United (9/4)

This is arguably the biggest game of the season so far and Chelsea can serve down the biggest notice of their title credentials by beating Manchester United. Roberto Di Matteo’s side were lethargic, unhappy and lacked coordination all through last year in the league but this year’s side, boosted by the additions of Eden Hazard and Oscar to the already hugely classy Juan Mata, who has been the best player in the league since being so wisely rested by his club. Manchester United’s remarkable strength in depth upfront, with Wayne Rooney rejuvenated since dropping into a deeper role and Robin Van Persie both scoring and assisting for fun, has seen them win 6 games while losing two, but those defeats came against the most gifted midfield sides they’ve played this season in Everton and Tottenham, and there’s no doubting Chelsea are a better side than both on paper.

Advice: 5 pts Chelsea (7/5 general) 

Old Roan Chase 2012

3.30 Aintree

Betfred Monet's Garden Old Roan Chase (Grade 2 Limited Handicap) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £37,018

Advice: 1 pt win Noble Prince (11/2 general), 1 pt win For Non Stop (11/2 general)

Wishfull Thinking: Looked set for stardom at the end of novice campaign (which included 4 Graded wins, including a 10 lengths C&D Grade 2 romp here) but best efforts were second in season blighted by poor form last year (although breathing issues didn’t help him, and he has had 3 operations for that); If back to best this time around, must have big chance even off topweight.

Nacarat: Top class chaser coming towards backend of season, usually at 3m these days as his two Racing Plus Chases and 2011 Betfair Bowl win show; Well beaten on seasonal reappearance on first start last year and while he can front run at this trip, others preferred.

Gauvain: Peterborough Chase winner last year in very convincing style and very useful fresh, having won first time out in each of the last two seasons; Mark of 159 same he got for Peterborough Chase win so very fairly handicapped and interesting for Phillip Hobbs.

Noble Prince: Another former winner of the Jewson Novices who did well last season despite only winning once, finding Big Zeb just too good over inadequate 2 miles on two occasions before being injured in Ryanair Chase (pre Festival defeat came on ground far too soft for him); Relishes this trip and ground (two of three chase wins come on this surface, while 5 of eight over this trip) so must come into the reckoning here.

For Non Stop: Made into a classy novice chaser last season, notably when pushing Al Ferof all the way in Sandown Grade 2 Novice Chase although Scilly Isles win is also strong form and third to Gold Cup favourite Sir Des Champs reads very well in this context; This a bit tougher than that bet been lightly weighted considering and ha to be high on the list.

Hector’s Choice: Made a winning reappearance on this card last year and went from strength to strength since in handicaps, best efforts coming in mid-winter before his strong end of season win at April at Cheltenham; Should go well once again and can’t be dismissed.

Stagecoach Pearl: Reliable at his level wand was right there in handicaps last season, winning at Kelso and coming second and third at Doncaster and Wetherby, all at 2m or threreabouts; This a much more testing contest and may not stay.

Pacha Du Polder: Much hype about him as he came to top yard off the back of 9 length Chasing win and now 3-5 over fences here, although can’t help but feel that he’s failed his two toughest tests so far (only fifth in Grade 2 at Ascot, and going backwards when falling in race won well by For Non Stop); To be fair Grade 2 win at Ayr was very impressive and can offer more this season, for all that this is his toughest test yet.

Mad Max: Tons of potential and evident ability based on novice days but gone backwards and not been the easiest to train; Went like something still there when third behind Giorgio Quercus last year and better ground should really suit, but has to be

Giorgio Quercus: Wide margin  winner of a 21f minor event at Haydock in January on heavy ground (Mad Max, making return from layoff, well behind in third) but didn’t go on from that twice on better ground and hard to recommend.

Mahaogany Blaze: Third in cheekpieces at Market Rasen (2¾m) in September shows that he retains some of the ability that saw him rated as highly as 151, but not won since April 2008; Others preferred.

VERDICT: A cracking renewal which wouldn't be out of place as a standalone Graded chase. Sever have claims for differing reasons and any one of 7 can realistically win it  but NOBLE PRINCE’S liking for this trip and ground give him the vote, with all of his best performances having come with a sounder surface. Second season chases don’t have the great record in this but the weight that FOR NON STOP receives from his elders gives him a big shout if ready to go and he makes the most appeal of the others, although Philip Hobbs has a  very strong hand with the best fresh Gauvain and topweight Wishfull Thinking. Pacha Du Polder has been tipped for big things this year but failed his two stiffest tasks.

Racing Post Trophy 2012

3.05 Doncaster

Racing Post Trophy (Group 1) (Str) (Class 1)  (2YO only)

Winner £122,494

Advice: 2 pts place Trading Leather (10/11 Bet365), 1 pt Kingsbairns to win today and Derby (20/1 Blue Sq), 1 pt Trading Leather to win today and Derby (25/1 Blue Sq)

Birdman: Really effective on heavy ground, closing fast on Olympic Glory during the Superlative Stakes and then closing third in the Futurity Stakes without ever looking as if he’d get to the line in time; Fourth to Steeler latest and while ground in his favour, easily held by First Cornerstone.

First Cornerstone: Made impressive progress so far in just the three runs, landing Listed event at 33-1 and four runner Fruity Stakes at Curragh, both in testing conditions; This harder on ratings but handles soft ground and has commendable attitude, while notable that he travels from small yard in Ireland; Dangerous to dismiss.

Kingsbarns: Beat literally nothing in Navan maiden but impossible not the taken visually with the way that he shot clear late on in soft ground, and clearly extremely well liked given prohibitive starting price then and incessant market support leading upto this race; Trainer had 6 (including several better qualified) beforehand but fact only this representative shows says a lot for him; Has to be respected.

Sir Patrick Moore: Looked like a nice sort when winning at Newbury and Compiegne on first two stars and hardly disgraced when second in Longchamp listed contest, but long way behind standard needed to be winning this.

Steeler: Showed significant promise on first two starts when clearly crying out for a mile and best effort yet when runner up in York’s Acomb Stakes, coming from behind to give Champagne Stakes second Dundonell a good race in latter stages, where he wasn’t helped by the slow gallop; Unbeaten since, winning listed event cosily and then grinding down opposition in good style in strong Royal Lodge Stakes;

Trading Leather: Very encouraging debut when second to Battle Of Marengo (had experience, since won Beresford) and since bolted up in maiden at Gorwran before finding more to win hotly contested Autum Stakes latest; Will relish a step up in trip but form amongst the best here and has to be respected.

Van Der Neer: Looked good when landing 6f Yarmouth maiden and four runner conditions stakes at Leicester (soft), being far more in control than the winning margins suggested on both occasions but most notably last time; Deserves his place for all this is a steep step up in class.

VERDICT: One of the more intriguing renewals of a race which has produced 4 of the last 11 Derby winners. Aidan O’Brien alone has three winners since 2002 and his Kingsbairns, who comes here with only a maiden win to his name, like half of the 6 winners the stable has had. The incessant support he’s received for not only today but also the Derby next year, along with the fact he’s the only one of 6 Ballydoyle horses to run here, means he must be hugely respected but at just 2/1 (and possibly a telling 6/4 with Ladbrokes), he offers no value and the best way to get onside with him might be to back him to do the Racing Post Trophy Derby/Double at 20/1 with Blue Sq and 888Sport. Should he win tomorrow, the 14/1 left with Boylesports (which is well worth taking if you believe he’s as good as rumoured) may be chopped even further and with Dawn Approach the only horse to have won a Group 1 in the top 10 of the ante-post list, it makes sense, especially with Kingsbairns having won on soft ground already. The ground seems sure to dry out, with some strong winds forecast and no more rain expected, so TRADING LEATHER makes the most appeal for the actual race. Jim Bolger’s Autumn Stakes winner needed every yard that day but beat a highly regarded field and his second to Battle Of Marengo on debut underlines his strong form prospects, so should the ground turn good to soft his prospects would have to rise quite significantly. So too would those of Steeler, for all that the Bolger charge just gets preference for today. Van Der Neer is interesting although First Cornerstone has been overlooked to a point. 

Melbourne Cup 2012 Ante Post Preview

Anyone could tell you that it takes a truly special horse to win the Melbourne Cup carrying topweight- No horse has carried more than Think Big's 58.5kg in 1975 to win the Melbourne Cup since metrics were introduced in 1972 – so the task facing Dunaden in retaining his title is a historic one. However I could also tell you that it takes a special horse to win the Caufield Cup from the widest draw with top weight, and as such 6/1 quotes about Dunaden are understandable, for all that he’d have to break the weight carrying record.

Dunaden is thoroughly deserving of topweight in the Melbourne
Cup and should go close despite being too short for an ante-post
recommendation

That said Mikel Dezangles’ stayer is arguably better this time round than last year. Since winning last year in that dramatic stretch drive, he’s since taken the Hong Kong Vase and then shown up with the best of Europe over 12 furlongs in the Grand Prix De Chantilly, Hardwicke and King George. He’s been outpaced on all three occasions (including his Jockey Club fourth), but that’s understandable for such a stayer and it’ll take some performance to stop him winning again, for all that his giant weight and short price don’t make him much if an ante post proposition. 

Americain (far left, with white jacket)  is only a couple of points bigger than his conqueror in not only last year's renewal but the Caulfield Cup, but was as unlucky as any horse not to win last year and comes here significantly better off with his conqueror - to the tune of at least 2KG, or 1.5lbs for just over a length - over a trip which suits him down to the ground. Hopefully this year he isn't given as much to do by Gerald Mosse (who has had one of his finest seasons ever of late) in which case the 9/1 still offered by SkyBet, Boylesports, Stan James and Coral could look rather big by the morning if the first Tuesday in November.

Mount Athos has had the race earmarked since the summer, and coming from a stable that has done everything but win this race, so quotes of around 8/1 are fair, for all that our pick has been there and done it while having also had the required prep in the country which is such a help when it comes to International raiders.

We can’t do a proper Melbourne Cup preview of any kind without drawing attention to the fact that Red Cadeux – who could so easily have been the defending Champion for this year but for a nose – is around 3lbs better off with Dunaden, but their subsequent European meetings have suggested that Mikel Dezangles’s stayer is clearly the superior horse and while Ed Dunlop’s charge is double the price, A better drawn Americain looks to be a bigger threat.

Considering Americain’s win two years ago, Shahwardi’s Herbert Power Stakes win has to be taken very seriously. Another testament of Alain De Royer Dupre’s remarkable skills when improving horses, the very fact he’s come from second in a 12 furlong amateur riders race at Chantilly to winning that Group 2 so well has to be respect, for all that Gatewood may well have won had he gotten a clear run that day.

Green Moon has run in the right races to be considered on a trends basis – three winners in the last 11 years ran in the Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes, while the four Turnbull Stakes winners have placings of 4014 – but he runs in the Cox Plate tomorrow and it remains to be seen if this is a target, and even then he might well leave his race at Monee Valley. Galileo’s Choice – ain impressive winner of both his starts on the Flat this year following a light campaign over hurdles during the winter is also tempting - given Dermot Weld’s brilliant season so far and is worth a second look.

I can’t see Maluckyday improving enough from his flat Geelong Cup showing to take a hand, so of the first 10 in the market, that leaves My Quest For Peace as the value alternative at 25/1. Fifth in the Caulfield Cup – a race that 5 of 10 winners ran in before last year, finishing 14230 – he’s been largely ignored despite his fifth in the Caulfield Cup. Admittedly he had a great draw compared to Duanden and Amercain, but it was his first run since winning at Glorious Goodwood, where he had Gatewood behind in a strong Group 3 field. With Cumani having such a great record in the race barring winning, 25/1 looks to be a generous offer.

Gatewood might not even get into the race but his effort in coming a close second to Masterstroke at Deauville was a marker for just how far he's come this season and his impressive Geelong Cup win – one of the strongest Cup trials for travelling raiders who want to have a crack at the race, having been taken Dunaden and Americain on their way to recent Cup glory, along with second Bauer in 2009 - over fellow traveller and strong Group 2 second Brigantin shows that Australian racing suits him down to the ground. Even the hastily reduced 12/1 would be worth having onside, as he'll be right at the bottom of the weights should he make the lineup, but he's only 36th on the list and needs more than 12 to drop out to make it into the race. Brigantin (30th)  wouldn't have enjoyed how the Geelong panned out and should enjoy a step back upto 2 miles, for all that he too needs a few to drop out,  along with Lost In The Moment (29th),  Prairie Star (31st), Shahwardi (32nd) and Ibicenco (42nd).

Advice

2 pts each/way Americain (9/1 general)

1 pt each/way My Quest For Peace (25/1 Bet365) 

Champions League Extra - Group F

We’ve only had two games in the Champions League, so some might argue that it’s hard to draw any conclusive lessons from what we’ve seen so far. With all of our outright fancies having shown the potential to go some way in this competition, our ante posts – with some having been tested more than others – look to be in pretty good shape.

As far as the group stage betting goes, there’s obvious potential for things to change with the difficulty of fixtures varying wildly for some teams – for example at the time of writing, Juventus have yet to play Nordsjelland before tonight, and Porto have a return trip to PSG to face despite their rather dominant 1-0 win over the French League Leaders – but history can often repeat itself and it’s surprising to see Bayern Munich readily available at 4/7 to win their Group considering that they’ve done so in 5 of the last 6 years they’ve been in the competition. They were unlucky to lose 3-1 to BATE on the last Matchday but a return trip to the Allianz should see them get the job done, while Lille look extremely vulnerable this season in Europe.

Advice:

7 pts Bayern Munich to win Group F (4/7 general)

Champions League - Matchday 3 (23rd October 2012)

Spartak Moscow (7/4) v Benfica (17/10)

Spartak have only won one of their last 15 Champions League matches and look vulnerable against Benfica if they defend as badly as they did when losing a lead against Celtic here when the two last met. The Russians have lost their next two games since, admittedly against strong Russian opposition, but Benfica can be placed in the same rank and showed their credentials for this kind of trip when going down bravely to Zenit in the away leg of their Last 16 last year. 

Advice: 1 pt Benfica (17/10 general)

BATE (13/5) v Valencia (6/5)

Given their travel woes – they’ve lost four and drawn one of their 5 games on the road this season, albeit with three of them being Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Barcelona – Valencia don’t make for great looking 6/5 favourites on the road to BATE, who showed their credentials for this competition when beating Bayern Munich 3-1. A similar performance against the Spanish, who haven’t shown their best on the road and don’t boast the side of old thanks to financial difficulties, would see Los Che in for an uncomfortable night.

Advice: 1 pt BATE (13/5 general)

Barcelona (1/10) v Celtic (33)

Even with the fact that they’re free to target this completion above all others, a start of 4 points from their opening two games is a dream start for Celtic. On paper Barcelona are miles clear of the Scots and despite the incredible results of the past for Celtic in Europe, this might be a mismatch. Barcelona could well be more than one infront before half time.

Advice: 1 pt Barcelona -1 on half time handicap (5/4 general)

Nordsjaelland (21/5)  v Juventus (2/5)

Juventus have a crucial chance to get their foot in the race for Group E qualification with a win over Nordsjelland. The Italian Champions haven’t quite hit the same form in Europe that they have been at home but they’re still unbeaten in a staggering 25 away games and deserved a point at the least from their trip to Stamford Bridge, even if Shakhtar should have gotten more than a point from their trip to Turin. The Danish debutants haven’t disgraced themselves so far, but have lost by two goals or more in both matches.  

Advice: 1 pt Juventus -1 (21/20 general)

Galatasaray (8/11) v Cluj (9/2)

Galatasaray suffered a hammer blow for their qualification hopes when they were beaten by Braga, but Cluj have lost 4 of their last 5 and if they can’t be beaten at home, then it’s truly curtains for the Turks. They should have just enough to gain a home win, but they’re not for anything more than small stakes.

Advice: 1 pt Galatasaray (8/11 Coral)

Lille (6) v Bayern (4/7)

Missed chances cost Bayern dear when they went down for the first time this season in a 3-1 loss at BATE, but they had 13 shots, 14 corners and 66 per cent possession against a side that beat hapless Lille 3-1 on the first Matchday. They’ve not failed to cover a 1 goal start in the Bundesliga so far this season and look excellent value to do so once again at 13/8.

Advice: 2 pts Bayern -1 (13/8 Ladbrokes)

                                                               Manchester United (4/11) v Braga (9)                               

The way in which Braga beat Galatasaray the last time the two met is a serious marker for Manchester United, who were lucky to beat Galatasaray and failed create anything of note for long period of their game against Cluj. Their Premier League games have been a different matter with Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie causing havoc, but this is a tougher test and this is sure to prove yet harder so the 1 goal winning margin might be the best value.

Advice: 1 pt Manchester United to win by one goal (3/1 Ladbrokes)

Shaktar (6/4) v Chelsea (85/40)

This is the tie of the night with Shaktar unbeaten in 28 games, winning 26 of those, and having scored in all of their 16 games this season, taking on Premier League leaders Chelsea, who stormed to an impressive 4-2 win over Tottenham in midweek to make it seven wins in eight games so far including trips to Arsenal and Tottenham. Shaktar will be a hellish away trip for Di Matteo’s Blues, but this season’s vintage looks to be one of their finest teams and in what looks sure to a cracking encounter, can make a statement of their European intentions as well as their domestic ones. Both teams to score looks to be a staple but Chelsea are far too temptingly priced to take all the points from Ukraine.

Advice: 3 pts Both Teams to Score (3/4 Bwin, 8/11 general), 2 pts Chelsea to win and both teams to score (24/5 Coral) 

British Champions Long Distance Cup 2012

1.45 Ascot 

Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 3) (Class 1)  (3YO plus) 
Winner £113,42

Advice: 1 pt win Aiken (4/1 general) 

Aiken: One of the most progressive horses seen this season and completed six-timer when beating Dunaden in tactical Group 2 at Chantilly on penultimate start; Since beaten into fourth on next two occasions but chased too hard a gallop in Hardwicke,  while Irish St Ledger showed his potential for longer trips even if he was outstayed a bit late on; Ground has come rips for him, so worth even more consideration.

Askar Tau: Not quite recovered the form that saw him win Doncaster and Yorkshire Cups in 2009, but still shown talent remains when second to Saddlers Rock in Goodwood Cup; That alone won ‘t suffice here though and ground could have turned out faster.

Colour Vision: Third in this last year; Winner of epic duel to win Gold Cup here in June on ground which bears similar resemblance to today, and while he’s not reached that form since, did put Doncaster disappointment behind him when third in heavy ground Cadaran two weeks ago; Condtions of this race see him given strong chance at weights and has to be taken seriously.

Electrolyser: None from 11 in group company and best effort this season (a front running Nottingham listed event) still leaves him very short.

Fame And Glory: Top class middle distance horse turned stayer, winner of Gold Cup in 2011 and arguably the best horse in this race based on his best form, which also saw him win this in 2011; Not been at best since, especially when posting poor efforts in Gold Cup and Irish St Ledger; More in and out since 2011 Gold Cup win so if caught on a good day, can beat them all, but hard to guess that nowdays.

Ile De Re: Solid novice hurdler but reached new heights as staying handicapper in near bottomless ground, winning Chester Cup and Northumberland Plate

Opinion Poll: Arguably the most consistent stayer in training, having been second in the last two Gold Cups and in this very race last time; Should go close today with no obvious reason for him not to post big effort.

Rite Of Passage: Much vaunted dual purpose runner, who won 2010 Gold Cup after coming third in 2010 Neptune Novices Hurdle; That form would give hi big chance and no worries with ground, but has run just once in the last two years; Hard to know if ready but market not showing any signs, and left alone today.

Saddlers Rock: Proven himself to be top class stayer with Ascot Gold Cup third (unlucky) and Goodwood Cup win, and not hand things drop right for him since so latest form figures best ignored; Only worry is ground gone against him yet again.

VERDICT: A wet Autumn and deluge of rain have thrown open this contest, with all of the likely principals having the ability to win, although only Opinion Poll has had what could be called a blemish free season. AIKEN has an exceptional record on soft ground and as such, gets the vote. 

Qipco British Champions Fillies' And Mares' Stakes 2012

2.55 Ascot

Qipco British Champions Fillies' And Mares' Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner £151,702

Advice: 1 pt win Sapphire (5/2 general)

Dancing Rain: Best 3yo filly of what has turned out to be a very strong crop last year when winning not only Oaks at Epsom and Germany, but also last year’s renewal of this; This first run since being well held in Japan last November (not right then) and while no surprise to see big effort, lack of fitness may count against her at business end.

Jehanedarc: Gone from Deauville AW winner to Group class performer in last two races, staying on into second at Goodwood behind Wild Coco and then fourth in strong Listed event at Newmarket; Needs more.

La Pomme d’Amour: Progressive in typical Andre Fabre style to win three of her four starts this year, including 1m4f Group 2 at Deavuille latest where she ran down strong yardstick late on in good style; That form gives her great chance despite his disappointment in Vermille last time, and has to be respected having come over from Fabre yard.

Sapphire: Improved hand over fist this season, romping home both times she’s won over 12f, taking her record to 3-3 over this distance, all of them on ground soft or worse; That makes her extremely attractive choice today with ground as it is and stable having already plundered three big prizes from UK this season.

Testosterone: Last season’s best (second in the Vermellie after winning two Group races at 1m4f last season, both from the front, one on very deep ground) gives her chance but not shown anything in two runs this season and hard to recommend after fairly long break.

Great Heavens: Has to be arguably the most progressive filly seen this season, winning 4 in a row on teting ground including the Irish Oaks (beat Shirocco Star and was convcingly), and no shame in Arc sixth; Only worry is if the Arc exertions haven taken their toll, which has to be big danger having had just two weeks in-between the races.

Semayyel: Impressive winner latest but that was a weak event to say the least, and no gruantee she enjoys this ground today; Class will find her out.

Shirocco Star: Ran a blinder in Oaks when second to Was, having been too keen and interrupted at the top of Epsom Hill before failing to get past was by a neck; Slammed into second by Princess Highway at Ascot although she was drawn poorly and had little to no cover all the way ground; Since gone well in Irish and Yorkshire Oaks, and addition of blinkers did looked to have worked when going down by just a head at Longchamp in Group 2; Needs more here.

Vow: Not gone on from huge promise of first three starts, where she won first two by combined total of 10 lengths and then was fourth in Oaks (only just behind Was and Shirocco Star); If back to best, interesting, but hard to foresee her winning today and no market moves to suggest so.

Was: Enterprising ride to become winner of Oaks in tactical affair but to her credit, has run to same level of form in Irish Oaks, Nassau Stakes and Yorkshire Oaks since, and would have been interesting here had it not been for worsening of ground; Gone on heavy when fourth in Irish Oaks but wants it fast to be effective enough to have serious winning shot, so others preffered.

VERDICT: A competitive renewal of this race at it’s current spot in calendar, with last year’s winner Dancing Rain returning. William Haggas’s filly is as good as any but hasn't run since last November, which gives the onus to Great Heavens and SAPPHIRE for this race given the soft ground. Great Heavens could be called the better of the two, but a hard race in the Arc may have taken it’s toll (with only two weeks inbetween) and Dermot Weld’s filly gets the vote. L'Pomme D'Amour should also go well. 

QEII Stakes 2012

3.30 Ascot

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Sponsored By Qipco (British Champions Mile) (Group 1) (Str) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner £567,100

Advice: 3 pts Elusive Kate w/o Excelebration and Cityscape (13/8 Hills), 2 pts win Excelebration (10/11 general)

Carlton House: Not quite reaped the riches that his 4yo campaign has threatened to deliver, although he’s only had three runs and no shame in being beaten by So You Think in Prince Of Wales’s Stakes here; Poor when fourth in Summer Mile but no pace that day proabaly did for his chances and this been the target since; Worries about his speed but on hold by ground, which he has won maiden by eight lengths on; Interesting if not with bit to find.

Cityscape: Top class miler who came good with spectacular Dubai romp; Not won since but had valid excuses on all occasions apart from second to Excelebration (ahead of Elusive Kate by just a neck) in Jacques Le Marois; Firm ground and concession of 3lbs to Wise Dan proabaly did for him at Woodbine latest but soft ground not a worry, and has to be taken seriously here.

Excelebration: One of the most talented milers around, generally regarded as second best miler in the world behind Frankel last season; Since been destroyed twice this season by Frankel, notably when trying to match strides with him in Queen Anne (tired badly on to be beaten 11 lengths); Won seven of his last eight starts without him in the field and with Group 1 wins on ground bordering on heavy, the one they all have to beat, especially after Jacques Le Marois win, when he beat Cityscape and Elusive Kate fair and square.

Indomito: Flattered to be fourth in the Queen Anne, where many paid for trying to chase Frankel (not least Excelebration); Probably better than he was able to show at Deauville but Turkish Group 2 third as good as he is.

Side Glance: Arguably had best ever season, highlight being Queen Anne third (big effort but flattered) and third in York Stakes, form of which has since been boosted by Asfare coming an excellent second in Arlington Million; Since come second twice and others make more appeal here.

Most Improved: Built on earlier promise of Dewhurst third when tough winner of St James’s Palace Stakes (chased strong pace but always doing enough) but substandard 3yo crop and disappointed since, mostly when behind Excelebration and others when last in the Jacques Le Marois; Poorly ridden latest but

Sovereign Debt: Improved hand over first this season, announcing himself as Group performer when close, but in no way unlucky second to Tulius group 3; Eighth in Joel Stakes, but so much more needed.

Elusive Kate:  Had promised much when clear cut winner of Prix Marcel Boussac last year but return had been put back at least two months by soft ground, so incredible effort to come second in Falmouth on seasonal comeback on ground bordering on heavy; Then given excellent ride when completely dictating terms in Rotschild to beat Golden Lilac and once again excellent from the front when third in Jacques Le Marois behind Excelebration and Cityscape; Should go well again.

VERDICT: The only time that EXCELEBRATION has been beaten without Frankel is on his 2yo debut, and he has won two Group 1’s from seven races on all other occasions. He has three wins on soft ground or worse, and when last seen, beat Cityscape and Elusive Kate convincingly, fair and square in the Jacques Le Marois, so is a very strong and deserving favourite even at odds on. Some have anticipated improvement from Carlton House with a strong pace and soft ground, but Elusive Kate was only a neck behind Cityscape in the Jacques Le Marois and looks a very strong favourite in a market without the top 2. 

Champion Stakes 2012

4.05 Ascot

QIPCO Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner £737,230

Advice: 3 pts Cirrus Des Aigles w/o Frankel (4/6 Hills), 2 pts Frankel, Cirrus Des Aigles, Nathaniel straight tricast (6/4 Ladbrokes)

Bullet Train: Pacemaker for Frankel who has done fine job; Same asked of him again.

Cirrus Des Aigles: Announced himself as the top class Group 1 performer he’d been threatening to be for some time with victory in this last year and gone from strength to strength since, winning Dubai Sheema Classic and Prix Ganay in equally impressive style despite winning distances being vastly different; As impressive as he’s ever been when winning Prix Dollar from comeback by 9 lengths in heavy ground, and has his conditions today for all that it’s not going to be that bad again; Facing greatest test in Frankel but frightening to think that he might improve for his comeback after while off and can throw down big challenge.

Frankel: Has confirmed himself to be one of the greats this year with 4 more Group 1 wins, including a truly special demolition of top class Excelebration (runs in QE11 earlier, winner of Jacques Le Marois) in Queen Anne and first and only win at 10f in Juddmonte International latest; Far and away clear of these on form and testing ground the only real obstacle, but should retire (if he does so after this) unbeaten as one of the all-time greats with 14 wins from 14 starts.

Master Of Hounds: Ran on strongly to win valuable 1m prize on debut for this yard last month in Turkey but never run on slower than good and huge amount to find anyway; Huge amount to find.

Nathaniel: Proven every bit as good at four as he was last year when winning King George (also fifth in this behind Cirrus Des Aigles), putting in unbelievable shift to win Eclipse on seasonal debut, before second in King George (to last year’s Arc winner Danedream) and in Irish Champion (to the top class Snow Fairy) before poor blood test robbed him of Arc chance. Goes on this ground but third best on form and hard to see him reversing last year’s form despite fact he’s a better horse this time around.

Pastorious: Shock winner of Germany derby but has proven himself to be the best of his age Group in that nation by far, winning all aged Group 1 by 8 lengths and then pushing Danedream as close as 1 length; 3yos been sub-standard this year but deserving of this accolade

VERDICT: Despite soft ground his should be a memorable end to the career of FRANKEL, who can retire as one of the great horses of all time with 14 wins under his belt. Fittingly, his last race against French machine CIRRUS DES AIGLES may be the one which tests him most of all, with Corrine Barande Barbe’s mare having won his last four races on testing ground by long margins totalling 36 lengths. Nathaniel should take third, so the tricast at 6/4 looks to be the best value in this race, with Cirrus now 8/15 in the “without Frankel” market, although he's already been advised beforehand during the week. Those looking for some extra value should consider Frankel to win by under 6 lengths at 11/10 with Ladbrokes.  

*Cirrus is now back to 4/6 in the "Without Frankel Market"  with Hills and that price is deserving of big support.