Japan Cup 2011

6.20 Tokyo

Japan Cup (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) (3yo+) Winner £2,000,663

Advice: 1 pt each/way Tosen Jordan,(12/1 Ladbrokes), Pelusa (12/1 Paddy Power, Hills, Boylesports)

Jaguar Mail: Last year’s fourth who found the drop back to 10f too short in the Tenno Sho last time out (real stayer, as shown by his Grade 1 win over 2 miles); Should be ready to run for his life (this his second run after decent comeback) but might lack the pace for a test like this.

Buena Vista: The winner by right (disqualified) of this last year, although she’s not run to the same form since; Probably not suited by dropping right down to a mile when beaten at long odds on by Anapane, and then finding trouble in Tarazuka Kinen/Tenno Shon; Should go as well as ever although some doubts now about how good she is.

Rose Kingdom: Benefitted from a controversial stewarding decision to win this last season, and first win since Group Two Kyoto Daishoten on return to the track to advertise his well-being; Tenno Sho disappointment leaves him with a  lot to find and others readily preferred.

 

Oken Bruce Lee: Saves his best for this event, having been fifth, second (by just a nose) and seventh in this three tries at the Cup; Very encouraging effort when beaten giving 8lbs to Trailblazer last time and that form makes him interesting, for all he’ll need to improve on all other efforts this season.

Trailblazer: Biggest win of carrer when taking Grade 2 Copa Republica Argentina but getting 8lbs from Oken Bruce Lee on that occasions and readily swerved here on that basis.

To The Glory: Steady improver throughout last year, finishing little more than quarter of a length behind Victoire Pisa and Buena Vista last year; Had started in same form this season but since lost his way a little; Big chance at his best following encouraging run behind Tosen Jordan latest, although still to reverse form with him and others behind him from that day.

Pelusa: Fifth in this last year following second to Buena Vista from last year, coming late on both occasions; Proven a little below par this year based on that form but ran a cracker when third in Tenno Sho, recording the fastest closing split from wide out of any horse in the race; Can run a big race with a good passage and high on any shortlist.

Victoire Pisa: Third in this last year but just not looked back since, winning Arima Kinen before being brilliantly ridden to win the Dubai World Cup; Has form that’s as good as any of these but so hard to recommend of a 246 day absence, despite his class.

Sarah Lynx: Enjoys testing ground, and used conditions to good effect when romping away with Canadian International, coming clear in straight after being given excellent ride by Cristophe Soumillion; This far tougher and won’t have the advantage that she did over some of her rivals last time.

King Top Gun: Very versatile, competing Grade 2 handicap double over 13 furlongs and a mile, receiving 11lbs from Heart Beat Song on one occasion; Shouldn’t be anywhere near good enough.

Mission Approved: Made Gio Ponti pull out all the stops when allowed to dictate a steady pace in last year’s renewal, and got away with it when gives same amount of rope on seasonal reappearance when pinching the  Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap; reversed with Gio Ponti on level terms next and then unplaced in Arlington Million; Hard to fancy.

Win Variation: Only member of Japanese classic generation here; Winner of the Aoba Sho Stakes before coming second to Triple Crown winner Orfevre on three occasions; Can’t be ruled out safely given that only that horse stood between him and 2 legs of Triple Crown; Interesting.

Danedream: Supplemented for Arc breathtaking victory in September 4 in Germany's top race, the Grosser Preis von Baden, where she beat the 2010 winner Night Magic by six lengths in very soft ground; Followed that with superb display in Arc De Triomphe, winning easily in course record time; Massive chance if literally repeating that form but been on the go since April and is short (despite it being deservedly so) for race of this nature; Best European performance was Alkaseed’s third in 2005.

Shareta: Was only having her second run when bumping into Galikova on seasonal debut, and has since improved quite a deal, gaining easy win before being third in Vermille; Grabbed second in Arc thanks to great trip and shouldn’t reverse form with Danedream.

Eishin Flash: Holds Rose Kingdom, Victoire Pisa, Pleusa, and To The Glory on last year’s Japanese Derby win and decent efforts afterwards, fast closing second on Hiruno D’Amour in 2m Grade 1 before chasing a ridiculously fast pace in Tenno Sho and ending up sixth; Could go well here with more restrained ride.

Tosen Jordan: Rapid improver this year, winning three of his four starts in 2011, including when brilliantly ridden to take the Tenno Sho, breaking the record for the 1m2f trip (a staggeringly quick time of 1:56); Should get a similarly strong pace to run at again and while others could have good claims to reversing the form, big chance if able to repeat that stretch run.

VERDICT: One of the most open renewals in a good while, although it’s not missing out on quality in any way, shape or form. A repeat of Dandedream’s superb Arc effort would see her take a major hand in this but there’s a possible worry about how long she’s been on the go for (she did start her season in April) and she’s a short price a just 9/4 to win the race, so each/way value can be found elsewhere. Star mare and rightful winner of this event last year Buena Vista is also given major respect despite the fact she’s not won since landing the last renewal, as circumstances have generally gone against her since. She’s just 5/1 (only with Hills) however, and more each/way value is offered by PELUSA, who was coming home with a wet sail in the Tenno Sho and should be able to repeat his effort given a strong pace early on here. Exactly the same reasoning makes the winner that day, TOSEN JORDAN, who’s hold up style negates the widest draw here. There are many fascinating outsiders, including Win Variation, who’s form with Orfvere makes a top price of 33/1 look very big, while Eishin Flash also deserves a mention having chased an extraordinarily strong pace in the Tenno Sho.