Breeders' Cup 2011 - Filly & Mare Turf

10.50 Churchill Downs

Emirates Airline Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Turf) (3yo+)

Winner: £692,308 Runners: 12 Distance: 1m3f Going: Firm

Advice: 1 pt win Announce (5/1 general), 1 pt each/way Misty For Me (8/1 general)

Dubawi Heights: Has been terrific for her new trainer Simon Callaghan, winning two Grade 1’s, a heavy defeat to Stacelita inbetween them (although that is on Yielding ground, a surface she doesn’t prefer); Solid chance here despite the fact this will be much harder for her than previous efforts.

Stacelita: Top class when with Jean Claude Rouget a couple of years back, drawing comparisons with Zarkava when winning her first 7 races (one by DQ); That seems a long time ago but been at that level recently when winning pair of Grade 1 races in impressive style; Many people’s first choice but might want cut in the ground to show her best and this offers far stiffer competition and was beaten on last try at this distance in United Nations Stakes (albeit with a fairly poor rider).

Harmonious:  Had an excellent time of things against her own age group when winning two Grade 1’s last year, but then disappointed in this event last year after being squeezed out; Not been in same form this year and held by Dubawi Heights on recent form.

Cambina: Another European import who dead heated in weaker than ususal American Oaks and didn’t have the speed for 10 furlongs when fifth to Dubawi Heights last time out; Needs to improve massively for the longer trip.

Nahrain: Been immensely progressive this season, going from maiden to Group 1 success in the L’Opera last time, getting better of a tight finish with Announce, who comes here again; No reason why she can’t make it 5 from 5.

Announce: Looked as if she was set for successful season when pipping useful Shamanova on seasonal debut and hen running into Sarafina straight after; Beaten into second and then fourth by Cirrus Des Aigles and form of win against Timepiece looks strong, as does L’Opera second to Nahrain, which was by no more than a nose; One to go well.

Aruna: Had much success here after being moved from France, where she had no wins at 10 furlongs or above; Won 5 of her 7 American starts and not much wrong with the form for Grade 1 level in the US but feeling there are a good few stronger than her.

Perfect Shirl: Not much form to speak of and beaten at all tries further than 9 furlongs, so passed over.

Shared Account: Denied Midday in this race last year, although many were quick to claim favourite had an unlucky run (and she did); Closer look at her profile reveals she’s a late blossomer but should still be beaten this year.

Distorted Legacy: Second to Stacelita but never actually threatening to beat her when second in Flower Bowl, getting plenty of weight; Far better than her in this field.

Dynaslew: Front runner who got on the board at long odds in the Flower Bowl Invitational, although she’s been well held by several of these on many occasions; Look elsewhere.

Misty For Me: Multiple Group 1 winner who took tally at highest level to 4 with romp over Midday in Pretty Polly Stakes; That form dubious on basis that she got an easy lead and runner up below form; Well beaten Emluous Stakes third suggests that a fluke but winner very progressive and second since run to a high standard here (won a Grade 1), and no doubting she’s talented enough/has tactical speed for this; Widest draw a horror situation but tight track with possibly easy fractions here would suit and foolish to dismiss.

VERDICT: Stacelita is a strong favourite after two impressive Grade 1 wins and understandably so but this will be a tougher test and it remains to be seen just how well she copes with 11 furlongs on firm ground, the conditions which saw her defeated on her US debut in July. A more restrained ride will be given to her on this occasions but how she deals with top European raiders remains to be seen. Stamina doubts remain over MISTY FOR ME, especially from a wide draw, but her capacity to sprint when on an easy pace was shown with a special win over Midday earlier this season and she may well have been targeted at this race since her Matron Stakes defeat. Of the raiders, Nahrain will be rightly popular after her L’Opera win, but it’s hard to see why ANNOUNCE should be two points bigger when just a nose separated them at Longchamp and the extra furlong should prove no problem at all.