10.50 Churchill Downs
Emirates Airline Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade
1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Turf) (3yo+)
Winner: £692,308 Runners: 12 Distance: 1m3f Going: Firm
Advice: 1 pt win Announce (5/1 general), 1 pt each/way Misty
For Me (8/1 general)
Dubawi Heights: Has been terrific for her new trainer Simon
Callaghan, winning two Grade 1’s, a heavy defeat to Stacelita inbetween them
(although that is on Yielding ground, a surface she doesn’t prefer); Solid
chance here despite the fact this will be much harder for her than previous
efforts.
Stacelita: Top class when with Jean Claude Rouget a couple
of years back, drawing comparisons with Zarkava when winning her first 7 races
(one by DQ); That seems a long time ago but been at that level recently when
winning pair of Grade 1 races in impressive style; Many people’s first choice
but might want cut in the ground to show her best and this offers far stiffer
competition and was beaten on last try at this distance in United Nations
Stakes (albeit with a fairly poor rider).
Harmonious: Had an
excellent time of things against her own age group when winning two Grade 1’s
last year, but then disappointed in this event last year after being squeezed
out; Not been in same form this year and held by Dubawi Heights on recent form.
Cambina: Another European import who dead heated in weaker
than ususal American Oaks and didn’t have the speed for 10 furlongs when fifth
to Dubawi Heights last time out; Needs to improve massively for the longer
trip. 
Nahrain: Been immensely progressive this season, going from
maiden to Group 1 success in the L’Opera last time, getting better of a tight
finish with Announce, who comes here again; No reason why she can’t make it 5
from 5.
Announce: Looked as if she was set for successful season
when pipping useful Shamanova on seasonal debut and hen running into Sarafina
straight after; Beaten into second and then fourth by Cirrus Des Aigles and
form of win against Timepiece looks strong, as does L’Opera second to Nahrain,
which was by no more than a nose; One to go well.
Aruna: Had much success here after being moved from France,
where she had no wins at 10 furlongs or above; Won 5 of her 7 American starts
and not much wrong with the form for Grade 1 level in the US but feeling there
are a good few stronger than her. 
Perfect Shirl: Not much form to speak of and beaten at all
tries further than 9 furlongs, so passed over.
Shared Account: Denied Midday in this race last year,
although many were quick to claim favourite had an unlucky run (and she did);
Closer look at her profile reveals she’s a late blossomer but should still be
beaten this year. 
Distorted Legacy: Second to Stacelita but never actually
threatening to beat her when second in Flower Bowl, getting plenty of weight;
Far better than her in this field. 
Dynaslew: Front runner who got on the board at long odds in
the Flower Bowl Invitational, although she’s been well held by several of these
on many occasions; Look elsewhere.
Misty For Me: Multiple Group 1 winner who took tally at
highest level to 4 with romp over Midday in Pretty Polly Stakes; That form
dubious on basis that she got an easy lead and runner up below form; Well
beaten Emluous Stakes third suggests that a fluke but winner very progressive
and second since run to a high standard here (won a Grade 1), and no doubting
she’s talented enough/has tactical speed for this; Widest draw a horror
situation but tight track with possibly easy fractions here would suit and
foolish to dismiss.
VERDICT: Stacelita is a strong favourite after two
impressive Grade 1 wins and understandably so but this will be a tougher test
and it remains to be seen just how well she copes with 11 furlongs on firm
ground, the conditions which saw her defeated on her US debut in July. A more
restrained ride will be given to her on this occasions but how she deals with
top European raiders remains to be seen. Stamina doubts remain over MISTY FOR
ME, especially from a wide draw, but her capacity to sprint when on an easy
pace was shown with a special win over Midday earlier this season and she may
well have been targeted at this race since her Matron Stakes defeat. Of the raiders,
Nahrain will be rightly popular after her L’Opera win, but it’s hard to see why
ANNOUNCE should be two points bigger when just a nose separated them at
Longchamp and the extra furlong should prove no problem at all.
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