Breeders' Cup 2011 - Juvenile

9.25 Churchill Downs

Grey Goose Breeders´ Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) (2yo Colts & Geldings) (Dirt) (2yo)

Winner: £692,308 Runners: 13 Distance: 1m110y

Advice: 1 pt win Union Rags (5/2 Ladbrokes), 1 pt each/way Daddy Long Legs (12/1 Ladbrokes)

Take Charge Indy: Showed lots of early dash when on the lead and drawing away to win 6 furlong maiden with ease; Has run well on next two starts but faded badly late on both his next starts and first try at dirt another question.

Dullahan: Sprung a real shock in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity, that being his first Polytrack start having finished third in minor turf; Switch back to dirt is interesting, because he ran very poorly on all tries earlier this season; Improvement of late might also coincide with step up in trip in which case he becomes far more interesting but can’t help but think he’s still got more on his plate in any case.  

Crusade: Benefitted from experience gained in York maiden when winning Curragh maiden over 6 furlongs; Faded late on after looking like he could play a part in the finish when fourth in Tattersall Stakes, a run that now looks a lot better with the form majorly boosted; Won Middle Park Stakes in game style last time out (decent looking renewal) and dirt breeding offers real hope for his chances but staying may be a major problem for him.

Drill: Already made himself into a useful juvenile, coming on in leaps and bounds to land Del Mar Futuruity when getting far better run than Creative Cause, who beat him with ease in the Norfolk at Sanita Anita; Should run a game race but can’t see him overturning the form.

Hansen: Debuted with a 12 & ¼ romp in Turfway over fellow maiden and followed that up with a win in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile at one mile by 13 & 1/4 lengths , earning a BRIS Speed Figure of 94 in each of his two starts; This a big step up but has shown he deserves his place and would not be a surprise winner.

Prospective: Front of a 1-2-3 for his trainer when winning the Grey Stakes at Woodbine on the Polytrack, although breeding says he should handle the dirt; Stronger pace may also suit here but the step up in class could find him out.

Creative Cause: Made deeply impressive Cushion track debut before following that up with easy win in Grade 1; Never got a chance to show what he was all about in Del Mar Futurity (behind Drill) but put that right when a hugely impressive winner of the Norfolk Stakes, putting lengths between himself and Drill in straight; Surely goes close.

Speightscity: Bounced back from first time out maiden claiming defeat in some style when blowing away his opposition in good style at Saratoga; Can’t blame connections for taking a shot despite the fact there may have been nothing in that race.

Alpha: Won his maiden with ease at Saratoga despite being a little flat footed and green early but couldn’t afford those mistakes when second to Union Rags in the Champagne Stakes; Could never quite get into it but needs to improve hugely to get into serious contention of reversing form here.

Union Rags: Unbeaten in three starts, following impressive maiden win with dazzling performances on East Coastt juvenile circuit, drawing away for wide margin wins in the Special Stakes and then the Champagne, despite finding a little trouble in stretch latest; That makes him the one they have to beat here.

Daddy Long Legs: Excellent long term prospect who found things happening too slowly early on for him in the Champagne Stakes, and put that right with a very clear cut win in Royal Lodge Stakes, always sitting in the van and then just going away from 2 stablemates; Bred to handle the dirt (Sire/Dam/Siblings all dirt performers) and big chance here.

Fort Loudon: Homebred for same connections that produced Awesome Feather to win Juvenile Filles last year; swept the three-race Florida Stallion Series at Calder Casino & Race Course and can’t be disrespected but hard to see him beating the country’s best.

Optimizer: Came from some way back to win turf maiden on debut and then only half-length second to Sate Of Play (got his own way out in front); Again miles out of his ground when third to Dullhahan in Grade 1 last time and might be a springer here, although a worry he’ll be too far back around the home turn.

VERDICT: Another top renewal which, like last year, holds a showdown between the top 2 juveniles this season in the US, Creative Cause and UNION RAGS, who was so impressive when overcoming trouble mid stretch to win the Champagne Stakes, which has produced 2 winners, a third and a fourth in this race over the past decade. Despite his impressive profile, I cannot leave out DADDY LONG LEGS, who was so impressive last time at Newmakret, is bred to handle dirt, and should love a strong pace here, while having better stamina credentials than his stablemate and Middle Park winner Crusade.  I can’t find any fault with Creative Cause, while Alpha might be next year’s horse, even with improvement.