Breeders' Cup 2011 - Ladies' Classic

11:30 Churchill Downs

Breeders´ Cup Ladies´ Classic (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Dirt) (3yo+)

Winner: £692,308 Runners: 10 Distance: 1m1f

Advice: 0.5 pt each/way Ultra Blend (7/1 Sportingbet) 

Miss Match: Used stronger stamina to catch Switch, who is traditionally a sprinter, in the Santa Magarita Invitational; No win since and while third to Blind Luck reads well, she’s not been in the form to win this.

Pachattack: Came second to Ask The Moon in Personal Ensign Stakes, her best piece of form in relation to this prize; That was a weak race for the division and her turf and Polytrack form is better, so best left.

It’s Tricky: One of the most consistent horses this season, landing Grade 1 double with wins over top sprinting filly Turbulent Descent and favourite/Kentucky Oaks winner Plum Pretty; Outstayed by Royal Delta and then outsped by Plum Pretty, so very hard to see her winning based on last two; There if favourites should disappoint though.

 

Satan’s Quick Chick: Hammered fourteen lengths by Havre De Grace, when in turn 5 & ¾ lengths behind Royal Delta; Shouldn’t make an impression here.

Ask The Moon: Was running for claimers as recently as June but improved massively to take pair of weak Grade 1’s at Saratoga but exposed when only sixth in Lady’s Secret Stakes and passed over here.

Royal Delta: Been one of the top east coast filies this season, reversing form with  It’s Tricky from the Coaching Club Oaks when outstaying her at Saratoga in the Alabama; Put in her place by Havre De Grace last time out but no shame in that and should run very well here, with the more stamina the better for her.

 

Ultra Blend: Just failed for four timer when losing out to Irish Gypsy in the Gleam Handicap, and bettered that with tight win and then tight second over Zazu, giving weight to her on both occasions; That form should see her go close.

Plum Pretty: Kentucky Oaks winner who overcame stall 12 when racing prominently and holding off all comers from a strong pace in the Kentucky Oaks; Tired twice on late in tests of stamina (both at Saratoga) but once again uncatchable in the Cotillion Stakes, although given an easier lead; Will be very hard to beat again although pressure for lead would be her task very unenviable.

Megadalia D’Amour: Winner of the Wilshere handicap 4 starts back and unlucky when caught close home in the Palmomar handicap, but stamina failed her there and should fail her again based on her 0-2 record at further than 8.5f.

Super Espresso:  Recent form has her safely held by Pachattack, Aruna, and Ask The Moon on her last 4 starts; Shouldn’t be good enough.

VERDICT: The big stage is likely to be dominated by three top class East Coast Fillies that have been taking it in turns to beat each – other this year (Plum Pretty, It's Tricky, and Royal Delta). Plum Pretty has looked the best of them on two occasions but she’s short in a race where favourites have a poor recent record. The most successful age group has been four year olds but there aren't any decent representatives which gives the each/way vote to ULTRA BLEND, a super consistent filly who has a big chance based on her second in the Ladies’s Secret Stakes.