8.01 Churchill Downs
Breeders´ Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Dirt) (3yo+)
Winner: £346,154 Runners: 9 Distance: 1m
Advice: 1 pt win Wilburn (4/1 Paddy Power), 0.5 pt each/way
Tapizar (16/1 VCBet)
The Factor: Has developed bog following since storming
maiden win and won three races since then, blowingout through injury in the
Arkansas Derby before coming back with impressive Pat O’Brien Stakes win;
Defeat last time rather disconcerting after setting crazy fractions; Distance
and harassment for lead are both worries here. 
Shackleford: Ran Dialed In to a head off a very strong
gallop (which he set) in the Florida Derby, and underlined that effort when
fourth in Kentucky Derby; Somehow managed to set fractions of 22.69, 46.87,
1:12.01, 1:37.22, & 1:56.47 but still win Preakness Stakes, and no shame in
being unable to do the same in Belmont; Haskell second followed by disappointment
in Travers but back to some sort of form when second (although well beaten by
Wilburn) and should be there or thereabouts. 
Tapizar: Touted as a serious Derby/Trip Crown contender
after a runaway victory at Sanita Anita, that having followed a 10 length romp
in maiden company here; Sadly sustained knee injury but looked as if he was
over that when winning conditions event at Belmont over 7 furlongs last time;
Very interesting contender. 
Tres Borrachos: Gained first win since 2008 when rallying
from between horses to win the San Diego handicap; Not won in 6 on dirt and
can’t be looking at horses with those credentials. 
Willburn: Developed into quality horse this fall, finishing hat
– trick with impressive Indiana Derby win, beating Shackleford and Caleb’s
Posse with more than something to spare; That sets him up perfectly for this
and with a strong pace surely likely to suit, hard not to see him going very
close.
Irrefutable: As talented as he is, it’s extremely hard to
think that he’s anything other than a sprinter after his two best efforts came
when second in the Ancient Title Stakes and then the Smile Sprint behind Giant
Ryan.
Jersey Town: Thanks to injury, has only run 3 times since
winning the Cigar Mile handicap last year; Ran an extremely good race when
second in the Forego but dropped like a stone when third behind Uncle Mo and
Jackson Bend at Belmont and hard to know how he’ll run.
Caleb’s Posse: A ready winner of the Amsterdam Handicap
retuned to sprinting for the first time since last November, under a big weight
as well; Then came from deep to nail Uncle Mo in King’s Bishop Stakes, a career
best; Seemed not to stay when beaten into third by Shackleford and Wilburn last
time out and needs more at this trip.
Trappe Shot: 3 for 4 at Belmont and transformed as a
sprinter, despite agonising defeat to longshot Sean Avery on surprisingly speed
favouring Saratoga track; Slow break didn’t help him in Vosbrugh Stakes, where
he stuck on gamely for fourth; This trip could suit him OK and has to be
considered.
VERDICT: A quality renewal of the ideal American dirt event.
The horse that seems most suited to this is WILBURN, who should be able to get
a good sit off a frenetic early pace and strike late, and he holds Caleb’s
Posse and Shackleford on his latest win. There’s a worry that The Factor could
burn himself out on the lead early which would leave him vulnerable late on to a
deep closer. If one horse is to last off strong early fractions it could be
Wilburn’s stablemate TAPIZAR, who looked over an injury last time that had seen
him off the Triple Crown route.
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