Breeders' Cup 2011 - Classic

11.00 Churchill Downs

Breeders´ Cup Classic (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Dirt) (3yo+)

Winner: £1,730,769 Runners: 13 Distance: 1m2f

Advice: 2 pts win Havre De Grace (9/2 Hills, Boylesports, Sportingbet), 0.5 pt each/way Ruler On Ice (16/1 Paddy Power)

Flat Out: Found the form of his life this season after fractures and quarters cracks threatened to curtail his career; Knocking at the door long before his win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, where stamina came to fore; Still to reverse form with Havre De Grace but stamina test in his favour.

Drosselmeyer: Last year’s Belmont winner who ran to that kind of form for the first time since when second to Flat Out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup; Needs 2 furlongs more to be fully effective and held here.

Ruler On Ice: Third in the Sunland Derby & beaten in the Tesio Stakes, but sprung a shock when winning the Belmont Stakes and backed that up when third in the Haskell; Best when stamina’s the forte, so all of his placed efforts have been solid to say the least, but might need a faster pace than possible today.

So You Think: Australian sensation who has shown what he’s all about with Coral Eclipse success, atoning for his controversial defeat in Prince Of Wales’s Stakes beforehand; Made to work hard for his win in the Irish Champions Stakes before Arc fourth, which was hindered by his poor draw (14 out of 16, leaving him wider than he needed to be in a race where it paid to be prominent coming into straight) and only just caught by top class Cirrus Des Aigles in Champion Stakes at Ascot; If he handles dirt and isn’t over the top, major chance; Both previous questions need to be answered but no doubting class or constitution.

 

Ice Box: Hasn’t made the top two since arguably unlucky second in the Kentucky Derby a year ago and more than 10 lengths behind Havre De Grace and Flaat Out on both his last 2 starts.

Rattlesnake Bridge: Has shown steady improvement since been handing a beating (received weight) from Uncle Mo at Gulfstream Park, and subsequent Graded efforts confirm this; Second but well held behind Stay Thirsty in Travers and then easily beaten by Ruler On Ice and To Honour And Serve at Parx last time; More needed.

Game On Dude: Showed real sprit when holding off Awesome Gem to take the Goodwood handicap, having been nosed out by another contender (First Dude, out injured) earlier on this year; Should give it his all although some others are preferred.

Stay Thirsty: Found his best form towards late summer with wins in the Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes, but seemed to have nothing left to answer when asked to go with Flat Out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and better alternatives can be found despite his love for stamina.

Havre De Grace: Developed into a stellar distaffer this season, her only defeat coming when giving 2lbs to Blind Luck in the Delaware Handicap; Got the better of Flat Out when winning the Woodward Stakes and not even asked to defeat Royal Delta (winner of yesterday’s Ladies Classic) and not overdoing things to suggest she is the divisional leader here.

Headache: Smashed by Flat Out and Tizway when fifth in the Whitney handicap and while his Hawthorne Gold Cup win is a Grade 2, he needs much more than that to be having any sort of impact here.

 

Uncle Mo: Threated to be a Triple Crown contender when following up Champagne Stakes victory with rousing Breeders Cup juvenile success by four lengths; Exciting reappearance seemed to confirm him having trained on until disappointing run in Wood Memorial, after which he was found to have serious illness (cholangiohepatitis, a bacterial disease of the liver); Shown he trains all ability with two excellent runs, firstly when caught late on in the King’s Bishop Stakes and then when running ridiculously fast time in Kelso Handicap; Has the ability to be the best of these but possible stamina query.

To Honor And Serve: Should hold a big chance based on his win at Parx last time, where he beat Ruler on Ice with something to spare; Only problem with that form is the 10lbs turnaround for a 2 length beating, and while he’s unexposed, this should prove too good for him.

VERDICT: Not for the first time, the spotlight is on Uncle Mo who attempts to show the world what he’s about. If he gets an easy lead his chances of doing a “Ghostzapper” would really increase but that’s not so likely in a race of this quality and the vote goes to HAVRE DE GRACE to become only the second filly to win this prize, following on from Zenyatta in 2009, who arguably should have won it twice. I’ve got no problem with her 0-2 record at 10 furlongs – Blind Luck is a serious racehorse – and she’s got a serious chance of upholding form with Flat Out (who is also a serious contender) at this longer trip. So You Think has a serious chance if adapting to dirt, while those looking at longshots could do worse than RULER ON ICE and Stay Thirsty.