Breeders' Cup 2011 - Marathon

5.20 Churchill Downs

Breeders´ Cup Marathon (Grade 2) (3yo+) (Dirt) (3yo+)

Winner: £173,077 Runners: 11 Distance: 1m6f

Advice: 1 pt win A.U Miner (4/1 Ladbrokes), 1 pt each/way Brigantin (8/1 general)

Birdrun: Jumped into the picture for this event when running out a clear cut winner of the Brooklyn handicap, one of the best trials for this and also taken in by last year’s winner Eldaafer before his success; Seemingly beaten fair and square before AU Miner was DQ’d in the Greenwood Cup and while he should go well here, he seems held by the favourite here.

Baryshinkov: Has no wins in 6 Graded tries on Turf and Polytack, while being unable to place on his last 5 tries on the Dirt surface; Run a solid race every time but still suggested that you look elsewhere.

Meezenah: Found some of her best form this year, namely when coming home well clear (course record) in Goodwood Group 3 so disappointing she failed to back that up when well beaten at Newbury; Back to form big style when romping away with Doncaster Group 2; Would have every chance if taking to dirt and should be considered seriously.

Pleasant Prince: Seems to have two ways of running but brought his best to the track when coming comfortably away from Rail Trip, getting the benefit of a strong pace battle between favourite which left him ripe for the taking late on; Should come on a lot for the step up in trip and looks a player.

Giant Oak: Fifth when favourite for this last year (didn’t get a great trip) but has posted better efforts since, winning two Grade 1 handicaps and running in several high class races; Should go well again although last year’s effort hard to forget; Should still be a contender.

Brigantin: Has flourished as a stayer this season, getting the better of Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden before then staying on into third in Gold Cup and Prix Cadaran; Has some of the best form in the race, bottomless stamina, and booking of Julien Leparoux suggests connections are serious about his chances.

Harrison’s Cave: Useful in Ireland over staying trips and improving for the step up in trip on each occasion, taking handicap with plenty to spare last time out; Unexposed but not in same class as some of these and nothing in pedigree suggests that he’ll handle dirt switch (much like stable’s classier Bright Horizon last year), so others preferred.

Afleet Again: Beaten in claimer getting 2lbs from runner up and also held by Birdrun on last three meetings; Look elsewhere.

Cease: Steadily improving throughout this year and would hold big chance on his third in the Hawthorne Gold Cup, when infront of Giant Oak (weighted to be close today); Seemed to have no problems with stamina that day, kicking a long way out and not folding until late; One of many who should go well.

 

Eldaafer: Clear cut winner of this last year when getting the perfect trip and avoiding the carnage that occurred in behind while also not being given too much ground to make up; Been in good heart since and foolish to rule out a repeat though, for all that things could be much harder here.

A.U Miner: Desperately unlucky when third in this race, having been hampered badly and then forced to go wide around the turn for home; Looked deeply impressive when landing the Greenwood Cup from far back and his tune up last time, when fifth behind Flat Out in the Belmont Gold Cup, was more than fair; Should go well.

VERDICT: A really tight and competitive renewal of the Marathon but the outstanding candidate looks to be A.U MINER is his compensation bid for an awful run in last year’s event. His win in the Greenwood Cup, with Birdrun well behind, is the most impressive staying performance in the US this season, while even his run in the Jockey Club Gold Cup was of a high standard. Europeans have not won more than twice on this dirt course but this is their best chance and a strong challenge of Mezzenah and BRIGANTIN should have a good chance if handling dirt, while Cease is an interesting contender.