Breeders´ Cup 2011 - Juvenile Turf

6.02 Churchill Downs

Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) (2yo Colts & Geldings) (Turf) (2yo)

Winner: £346,154 Runners: 14 Distance: 1m

Advice: 1 pt each/way Majestic City (7/1 general),1 pt each/way Finale (7/1 Blue Sq)

Fantastic Song: Useful horse who’s overpriced based on his late running defeat when beating Grade 3 winner Animal Sprits on debut at Saratoga; Didn’t look like he was suited by a two furlong dash for home on soft ground when third as favourite in the Pilgrim Stakes and shouldn’t be thrown out based on that, with a stronger pace here likely to suit; Seemingly beaten fair and square then though.

Shakespeare Shaliyah: Unlucky on debut when finding all kinds of trouble but since won twice, including Grade 3 when just ahead of Fantastic Song; Would want to improve again to be taking this and others preffered.

Farraaj: Made steady improvement from his Sandown debut, beating Tell Dad (subsequent Group 3 winner) with ease in novice Stakes at Sandown; Beaten in Somerville Tattersall Stakes but that form has been boosted twice and he came wide that day before staying on late; Big chance here on that form.

Wrote: Didn’t seem suited by soft ground when showing inexperience on debut and maiden/nursery wins have him down as a progressive sort; Put in his place by two stablemates when third in the Royal Lodge but looked as if he didn’t handle dip; Doesn’t strike one as the ideal type for this test around two turns and handing a possible issue; Interesting and a contender but would want to step up again.

Coalport: Won a statebreds polytrack maiden after being well backed first time out before being left in lead and readily outgunned in the Bourbon Stakes, a race which was run at a crawl early; Probably not good enough.

Caspar Netscher: Desperately unlucky when fifth in the Middle Park Stakes, unable to find a gap before final furlong and finishing like a train late on; On that evidence, step up in trip should be no problem and holds as good a chance as any.

Majestic City: Won first three on bounce at Hollywood Park including the Hollywood Juvenile Championship, before then coming second in the Del Mar Futurity (extremely strong looking form) and the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity; That’s the best non turf form going here and should go well.

Daddy’s Nose Best: Suffered a bad trip at third maiden attempt but put that right with descisve win from behind in Saratoga maiden special weight; Never getting to Finale in Summer Stakes and has no reason to reverse that form.

Animal Sprits: Caught close home by Fantastic Song before then winning Bourbon Stakes, having been fifth and looking beaten when he ducked out; Good stamina shown that day but feeling is he was a little fortunate to win there.

Excaper: Impressive debut when giving plenty of weight and a beating to rivals on debut before then getting beaten by Finale having set his own pace in the Summer Stakes; Needs far more especially as he was beaten when favourite for Polytrack Grade 3.  

Lucky Chappy: Italian import who won maiden at Cannapanelle and Listed race at the San Siro before making lots of late ground when coming third in the Bourbon Stakes; Probably should have been one place behind at least and Team Valor have a better shot with State Of Play.

Finale: Has thrived for switch to turf from dirt, unbeaten in three starts on the grass, one of them by 10 lengths; That saw him sent off odds on for the Summer Stakes, which he won despite going wide and found plenty for pressure; Should go well if negating his poor draw, something that Pluck did after winning the Summer Stakes last year.

State Of Play: Broke his maiden over a short trip with something to spare and used that same speed when winning the With Anticipation Stakes having set his own pace from the front; Not short of speed but will be hassled wherever he goes and that’s a worry.

Tequila Factor: Broke maiden in a $4,000 claimer at Arlington and won a minor Stakes at minor Texas track, so safe to say he’s not good enough.

VERDICT: A race with a US challenge just as strong as the raiding party so look anywhere for the winner and don’t let nationality sway you. Even in a field this big, the draw shouldn’t be a massive put off – the first four in this race last year were drawn 12, 8, 6 & 9 – which leads me to think FINALE has a big shot here following the route of last year’s winner Pluck and he can reward each/way support here if getting a good break. MAJESTIC CITY has never run on turf but should handle the switch and if doing so, holds the strongest form here out of the US contenders. Of the raiders, Farraj’s probably the main contender after his solid second in the Tattersall Stakes, while Caspar Netscher should enjoy the step up to a mile. Wrote could have trouble handling the track.