Breeders´ Cup 2011 - Filly & Mare Sprint

9.30 Churchill Downs

Sentient Jet Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Dirt) (3yo+)

Winner: £346,154 Runners: 13 Distance: 7f

Advice: 1 pt win Switch (9/2 general)

Irish Gypsy: Had found some of her best form earlier this year, making graded hat – trick with wins in the Valid Expectations at Lone Star Park, the Desert Stormer Handicap at Hollywood Park, and then the Gleam handicap at Hollywood; Needs far more than that to be winning here and beaten twice since so passed over.

Great Hot: All out to land the Torey Pines Stakes before then stepping up on that form when third to Zazu in the Lady’s Secret, always in the van and then when getting the benefit if a ground saving ride to win the Raven Run Stakes at Keenland; Holds a decent chance on the best of his fork and  interesting to see how he goes with rail an option once again.

Turbulent Descent:  Probably the most consistent three year old filly in the country after 6 excellent runs this season, notably when beating Lady’s Secret winner Zazu before easy Grade 2 win at Keenland; Turned over on the slop at Belmont before a rousing Test Stakes win and should make a mighty bid to land this prize; The one they all have to beat, although a 3 month break means her fitness will be tested to the max. 

Champagne D’Oro: Hasn’t won since last year, where she took the Acorn and Test Stakes before solid runner up efforts behind Dubai Majesty; Just not repeated that form in any start this year and not hard to refuse.

Musical Romance: Caught by Sassy Image in the Pirncess Rooney handicap to add to three other stakes wins, and no shame that she wasn’t able to concede the weight to Holiday For Kitten last time out, in turn getting 2lbs from Switch; Should run respectable race.

Switch: Even with the fillies in this field, she is phenomenally consistent with 10 top three efforts in her last ten starts; Had tough tasks on her plate, doing well to get close to Havre De Grace and Blind Luck off levels, before being shackled with lumps of weight in the Club Of America Stakes, where she was too far back to get up in time; Second in this last year after tracking slow pace and must have big chance of going one better.

 

Tar Heel Mom: Didn’t have to be asked to land the Honourable Miss handicap but received a smilar beating by Hilda’s Passion and Pomeroy’s Pistol, who should really confirm the from from their last meeting.

Tanda:  Close up third to Irish Gypsy when receiving four pounds from her in Gleam Handicap; Subsequent efforts when winning Racho Bernando handicap and then third in Seantor Ken Maddy Stakes have seen her in same heart, but this should be too good for her.

Golden Mystery: Been consistent since switching yards, winning her last two races for new trainer (minor stakes and allowance) but only try in graded company has seen her place tenth.

Tamarind Hall: Has improved out of all recognition to land Grade 2 by big margin at Belmont but held in Grade 1 and 2 company since; Would only have 1lb to find on literal reading of her meeting with Pomeroy’s Pistol last time out 

Her Smile: Gained a half length win over Pomeroy’s Pistol when getting 4lbs, although she must be respected having nearly blown all chance at the start (a pace battle really helped her); Failed to match that form last twice and may find a few too good.

Pomeroy’s Pistol: Couldn’t give the weight away to Her Smile in the Prioress and then put aside with ease by Turbulent Descent in the Test Stakes; Impressive Grade 2 win puts her in scene as an each/way shout if ignoring her shocking run here when fairly well fancied for Grade 3 handicap; Interesting.

Shotgun Gulch: Only one placed effort since her Vinery Madison Stakes win in the Presque Isle Stakes, but doesn’t look nearly good enough.

VERDICT: The obvious one to beat is Turbulent Descent, a true star filly who faces older horses for the first time after winning 6 from eight - with three Grade 1’s – against her own crop. She holds a major shot here but it’s deeply off putting that no 3 year old has ever won this and all four favourites have been beaten. In any case, it’s hard not to argue that SWITCH is at least as good as her and at nearly double the price, she gets the vote to avenge an unlucky looking second last year when struggling for room at the top of the straight. Best of the rest could be Pomeroy’s Pistol if she handles the track and her draw.