Breeders' Cup 2011 - Turf

8.45 Churchill Downs

Emirates Airline Breeders´ Cup Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) (3yo+)

Winner: £1,038,462 Runners: 9 Distance: 1m4f

Advice: 2 pts win Sarafina (3/1 Hills), 1 pt win Sea Moon w/o Sarafina (11/4 Paddy Power)

St Nicholas Abbey: Looked set for big things at two, having shown great turn of foot to land Racing Post Trophy & recaptured that spark after disappointing period with wins in Ormonde Stakes (by 9 lengths) and Coronation Cup; Well beaten behind  Sarafina in Foy but front running Arc fifth was probably career best and should make a bold bid.

Sarafina: Emerged as best 3yo filly in France early last year and deeply unlucky in both Vermille and Arc, when coming too late on both occasions; Peerless in victory this year, especially when beating Cirrus Des Aigles with perfect timing in Grand Prix De Saint Cloud, same story when winning the Prix Foy from Hiruno D’Amour; Impossible Arc draw saw her seventh but should go better here and the one to beat.

Dean’s Kitten: Best recent form when third behind Cape Blanco in the Arlington Million before then pushing that rival even closer when second in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic; That form very solid but has several who should beat him again.

Stately Victor: Winner of the Toyota Blue Grass in 2010 but not won a stakes since September 2010, when winning the Ontario Derby at Woodbine; Not good enough.

Teaks North: Made it 4-4 at Monmouth when taking advantage of poorly/ridden underperforming Stacelita in United Nations, and didn’t back that up when fourth in Sword Dancer Invitational next time out; Beaten by better horses when fourth last time out and same task again here.

Await The Dawn: Shaped with potential at two & again bettered that at three, signing off last year with a 9 length Group 3 rout at Leopardstown & same story when storming clear at Chester under penalty on seasonal debut; Simply more impressive when blasting his way through heavy ground in the Hardwicke and looked set for campaign geared towards Classic, but then sadly feel travelsick; Has no end of possible talent but how he copes with layoff (no horse at the Breeders’ Cup has ever won off a break of 72+ days) and left alone on that basis.

Sea Moon: Cemented a high reputation earned last winter with deeply impressive handicap win under topweight on reappearance; Blew that out of water when cantering home with Great Voltigeur; Sent off short price for Ledger of back of that but given too much to do on Town Moor, finding trouble down straight; Should go well here and trainer’s other winners followed similar route.

Brilliant Speed:  Blue Grass winner who looked to have found his niche when switched back to turn following fair Tripe Crown campaign; Didn’t have any answer to Western Aristocrat (although he was allowed to set a crawl of a pace) and far better raiders here.

Midday: Remains as good as ever in her 5th season, and showed her class when retaining Nassau Stakes for the third year running after two defeats (had excuses both times) earlier on in season; Seemed to be beaten fair and square in International Stakes but Champion Stakes defeat  saw her coming wide off the turn; Can go well. 

VERDICT: A quality renewal. All favourites in this event have been beaten but that’s the only factor deterring me from SARAFINA, who was desperately unlucky in the Arc from a horror draw. She should have more than enough left in reserve for this having been given a very soft build up to the Arc, and the ground should also suit her. The same comments apply to Sea Moon, who should make a bold bid, while St Nicholas Abbey and Midday would not surprise. Await The Dawn may need this.