Sunday, 5 May 2013

1,000 Guineas 2012


QIPCO 1000 Guineas Stakes (200th Running) (British Champions Series) (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO only)
Winner £241,585 - 15 run


Advice: 1 pt win What A Name (5/1 general)



Agent Allison: Could never land a blow in behind Newfangled in Albany last year and then well below par in the Boussac but lot to like about what she did behind Maureeen on comeback in the Fred Darling, recovering from a bad early start to be fast finishing second behind Maureen there; Promises only to improve for step upto a mile and big chance of outrunning her odds; Should surely be best of the outsiders.


Celtic Filly: Won four from five starts in Italy and won claimer as favourite at Cagnes-Sur-Mer but well beaten in fillies event for new years and can’t imagine she’ll be strong enough.


Diamanda: Lot to like about the way that she won well at Ascot on second start as 2yo but work to do on the way that she was well beaten by Winning Express on last 2 year old start when fourth in Sailsbury Listed event; Step upto a mile sure to suit her lots but this might be a bridge too far.

Hot Snap: Looked as if she’d make better 3yo when landing 1m AW maiden in September but levels above that when a deeply impressive winner of Nell Gwyn, behind and outpaced early before coming with lighting run when switched two furlongs out and a comprehensive victor over Sky Lantern (reopposing); Is sure to improve for the furlong and should come on for run, so a worthy favourite and excellent prospect.


Just The Judge: One of the best juvenile fillies last season, shaping as if step upto 1m would be sure to suit when  landing all three of her races as a juvenile, impressive when taking measured success in Rockfel at this track on last 2yo start; Plenty to like about her and one of the main contenders.


Masrah: Beneficiary of a very strong Ryan Moore ride when landing five runner conditions event at Ascot, but that’s hardly ideal prep for event like this and others make more appeal.


Maureen: Quickly progressed into one of the leading two year old fillies last year, unlucky not to win at Newmarket July Festival, making amends in style at Ascot; Didn’t get a run here on final 2yo start, but smart win on reappearance in Fred Darling; Looked as if mile would be OK at Newbury and can play a hand at best, for all that Agent Allison looked to be the more suited of the two to a mile at the time.


Moth: Disappointing last season considering what connections throught of her, although she may not have liked the ground when beaten favourite at Navan (1m) and Naas (6f); Deeply impressive at the Curragh on her seasonal comeback when scything through field with no fuss there and has to be respected here despite huge step up in class.


Ollie Olga: Easy to forget the manner which she won her first three starts after her last placed finish in Fillies’ Mile, although she was in season for that event and previous form when beating Sky Lantern was impressive; Can outrun her odds for trainer who does well with top class fillies.


Rasmeyaa: Here instead of same stable’s Big Break (same connections as Hot Snap) but comes here as contender in her own right, having ran away with strong maiden at Leopardstown after debut third in Listed race on debut; Smart prospect and likely he has more to give.

Roz: No match for absent Certify but well ahead of the others in Fillies Mile over C&D as 2yo, that coming after big priced listed win; Needs to come on a lot from that but might improve for experience.

Sky Lantern: Progressive as 2yo, second to Certify after impressive Listed win in Ireland before second to Ollie Olga before winning the Moyglare Stakes in impressive style (didn’t handle the Breeders’ Cup when she never got a run); No match for Hot Snap but giving 3lbs that day and should do better here, so not without a chance.


What A Name: One of the top 2 year olds of both sexes last season based on her second to Olympic Glory in the Prix Jean Luc at Longchamp on ground which may well have blunted her speed; Only won her trial by a neck but hampered by slow pace and poor runs; Step upto a mile should suit and no qualms with good ground, so plenty to like about her chances with that behind her.

Winning Express: Very good as juvenile, winning Sailsbury listed event and then second in Cheveley Park; Beaten a long way behind Hot Snap and Sky Lantern latest but stayed on fairly well when not having the best of runs for an honourable third; Needs to find huge amounts to be competitive on that basis but not without her place here.


VERDICT: A strong looking renewal with plenty to like and a handful of horses who have yet more to give despite holding already strong form claims. After her deeply impressive reappearance win in the Nell Gwyn, Hot Snap is a more than worthy favourite stepped back upto a mile with that experience behind her, while Sky Lantern can get closer at better weights and is a viable each/way alternative, but WHAT A NAME’S second to Olympic Glory at Longchamp last year is arguably the strongest piece of form and when one considers that the Coventry second got first run on her in ground that blunted her speed, it was an outstanding effort and her reappearance win too was encouraging given that she failed to get a clear gap in a slowly run affair. Having already backed her at 7/1 and bigger, the 5/1 still on offer is still worth backing. Just The Judge looks sure to enjoy a mile with Rasmeyaa may be the best of the Irish, and those who are looking for a big price should look no further than Agent Allison and Ollie Olga.

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