After all the rough and tumble action of the last few days,
we finally have what on paper ‘should’ be a fairly routine day, with no climbs
and a super flat run in towards the finish after a short stage compared to the
last two days at 169KM, ending with two laps of Magerita Di Savoia.
In another hectic finish John Degenkolb – a prime contender
for today – made fools of us by powering home and winning with a lot to spare,
but more importantly Bradley Wiggins avoiding the 10 rider pileup that ensued
around the last corners and not losing anymore time before Saturday’s time
trial.
Back to the traditional sprinters, and Mark Cavendish – who
tried as hard as he could yesterday but couldn’t keep up with the leaders over
the climbs and lumpy finish – is a worthy favourite even at just 8/11. Now
undisputedly the best sprinter in the world – with only Andre Gripel really
capable of coming close to matching him – he won the opener in Naples despite
more things going wrong than right, closing a significant gap with 500m to go
and launching a wide sprint straight afterwards to nail Elia Viviani and Nacer
Bouhanni (furthest left and green in picture) despite having little leadout support.
If Omega Pharma – who looked far more organised today and
were ready to give Cavendish every chance – do their job properly then he
should be well upto winning, but I see no reason not to repeat our stage 1
strategy of backing Viviani and Bouhanni each/way. Cannondale destroyed the
Peloton in Naples, being responsible for creating a spilt that had the main
riders as much as 18 seconds back, while Bouhanni has little problem getting a
position and following it with ease before launching his bid even without the
help of FDJ. Both were in contention turning for home yesterday but Viviani
couldn’t handle the sustained drag to the line alone while Bouhanni had all
realistic chance ended by the crash. Back to a sprint finish today, they’re
most likely to put it upto Cavendish, although Degenkolb and Goss deserve
serious respect.
Advice
1 pt each/way Elia Viviani (9/1 Bet365)
1 pt each/way Nacer Bouyhanni (11/1 Bet365)
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