Giro d'Italia 2013 - Stage 18, Mori-Polsa MTT

This year’s Giro D’Italia looks to be in safekeeping for Vincenzo Nibali, but while the fat lady is yet to sing, if RCS’s grand finale in the dolomites tomorrow and on Saturday is raced in it’s full glory, it’s impossible to see defeat for Vincenzo Nibali in his bid to land his home tour.

The Shark, as he’s commonly known, enters today’s mountain time trial to Polsa with a lead of 1 minute and 26 seconds over his main rival Cadel Evans, with Rigoberto Uran now 2.46 off the Magalia Rosa; Michele Scarponi is now the only person within 4 minutes of the lead.

At just 20KM, the gaps here won’t be large enough to shake up the standings at the head of the GC – indeed at evens for today’s stage Nibali is a warm favourite to stretch out his lead before the Dolomites on the next two days – but it’s a test that could easily see those fighting to consolidate their top 10 positions suffer or make big gains, while the battle for the young riders’ jersey is also an ever present feature.

Today’s course is an uphill time trial, but the reality is that it’s no more testing than 10% and the general gradient is 6.6%, with a large irregular section at 1.6% before the final uphill hike – certainty not in the league of the Plan De Cornoes time trial in 2010 which had sections of 24%.

With a medium length, it’s a test of power, climbing ability and also pace judgement, with GC contenders expected to come towards the fore at the expense of those who are at their best on long, flat stretches of road. Stage 8’s time trial had a massive kick at the end, but over 56KM of roads, a good 15KM were flat, it was greatly in favour of pure time trialists who could build up a lead before hearmorraging time late on.

It will amaze many to see Alex Dowsett not quoted but his long odds are a nature of the test here. His Stage 8 performance was an exceptional one, but that was archived mainly over the flatter periods of the course, and the amount of time he haemorrhaged over the last 3KM suggests that today may not be his day. 

Stage 8’s top climbers (last 3KM)

EVANS Cadel 0:06:55
WIGGINS Bradley 0:07:00
POZZOVIVO Domenico 0:07:01
NIBALI Vincenzo 0:07:03
SCARPONI Michele 0:07:04
KESSIAKOFF Fredrik Carl W. 0:07:05
MAJKA Rafal 0:07:08
PELLIZOTTI Franco 0:07:09
ARU Fabio 0:07:12
GESINK Robert 0:07:13
NIEMIEC Przemyslaw 0:07:14
HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis 0:07:15
GARZELLI Stefano 0:07:15
SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel 0:07:16
SANTAMBROGIO Mauro 0:07:17

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An interesting point of reference may well be the actual time taken to complete the climb at the end of Salartare Mara  (seen above) (3KM at 11.2%, with slopes of 13%) for those today, of which Cadel Evans was actually fastest with a time of 6.55, some 8 seconds faster than Vincenzo Nibali, although the 18 seconds difference between the two suggests that Nibali suffered due to extensive efforts on the flatter periods of the 56KM trek and today he can stretch out his lead and rubber stamp the race.

Nibali’s team mate Tanel Kangert is third favourite and the only one for whom single figure quotes are available, and while he does make appeal, he looks to be one of many who is more favoured by flat periods rather than steady climbing.

Michele Scarponi’s performance when 10^th on Stage 8 got overlooked thanks to the Nibali -Wiggins battle but to lose less than a minute was excellent for him and he had the fifth fastest split for the last three KM’s, and today’s combination of steady climbing at tempo should suit him enough for him to make  a bold bid and 3/1 for a podium spot today appeals as value.

Advice

2 pts Vincenzo Nibali (evens general)

1 pt Michele Scarponi top 3 finish (3/1 Bwin)