Saturday 25 May 2013

Giro d'Italia 2013 - Stage 20 (Tre Cime di Lavaredo)

With today’s last – and arguably most fearsome – summit finish of the Giro D’Itala, the destination of the Magalia Rosa has been fairly certain for some time. Much like Bradley Wiggins in last year’s Tour De France, the first time trial and then summit finish has seen Vincenzo Nibali retain a vice like grip on the race, much to his credit usually on his own despite a strong Astana side. Today was meant to be the day to end all days, with three fearsome summits after a brutal stage 19, but the weather has put paid to all but the Tre Cime di Lavaredo, for all that it’s a brutal test which should have everybody on guard.

While the Maglia Rosa looks safe – Nibali has four minutes in hand – the battles for second – with just 10 seconds separating Rigoberto Uran and Cadel Evans (currently second,  and also aiming to take the red jersey from our tip Mark Cavendish), and even less in the battle for the white jersey of best young rider between Carlos Betancur and Rafal Majka, which has been the best story of the race so far for many people’s money.

Tre Cime Lavaredo
The finish of today's stage 
Today’s finish (of which the profiles is pictured) can be seen in one of two ways; A 21KM slog or three separate climbs. The Passo De Croci ramps up sections of 12”% with an average of 7% overall, which will remove the wheat from the chaff as far as climbing is concerned, before a long and steady descent before the Dogana Vecchia, where there’s 1KM at 6.5%, false flats for another, the short but steep Col Sant’Angelo, which has an average of 10.6 and sections of 18, and then the truly brutal 3Km finish to Crime Di Lavaredo, which is never less than 11.2% and has extended sections of 18%. Put simply, whatever your style, an exceptional climber is needed for this.

The last 3KM of today, which is an average of 12.4%
The stage betting is dominated by the main men of the race, and one would think that given the bonus second on offer and the nature of the podium and white jersey battles, they’ll fight this out. Nibali’s Astana team has to do nothing but follow Cadel Evans and Uran – who themselves will fight for second and third today - to keep him safe, which does rains the question of a break going even though Betancur and Majka will surely want a time bonus to seal the jersey.

Thanks to the domination of Mark Cavendish and Movistar, each winning four stages - Ag2r La Mondiale, Androni Giocattoli, Blanco, BMC Racing, Cannondale, Euskaltel-Euskadi, FDJ, Lampre-Merida, Orica-GreenEdge, Radioshack-Leopard, Saxo-Tinkoff and Vacansoleil-DCM – are all yet to win a stage and depending on the makeup of the day they could get away on the flats – however the sheer brutality of the last climb will shell out all but the best going uphill. The best of the big prices looks to be Giovanni Visconti with two stages to his name already, but he was fortunate that the main group watched each-other on the Col Du Galiber and it mayt be best to look towards the top of the market.

Carlos Betancur – who has three second places so far this year, along with his third behind Santambrogio and Nibali on the Jafferau – is a worthy 3/1 favourite for this stage and essentially the white jersey with it, on a climb that gives numerous opportunities to attack and also stay away before the final fierce ramps. It’s a surprise to see Rafal Majka so much bigger than him, but through the Giro the results point only to one man he may have the help of Domenico Pozzovivo – out of the running for any prizes as well – to boot. Nibali’s 58 second win over Samuel Sanchez confirms that he’s the best climber in the race by some distance, but with that as a stage win, it remains to be seen how committed he is and he surely only wants to seal his victory today; That said, he is worth a small wager still. Rigoberto Uran has been fairly quiet since his win at Altopiano Del Montasio, but with 10 second separating him form the runners up spot he’s surely going to have a decent crack at him today and with Nibali being 4 minutes to the good, he won’t be in a hurry to chase down any attacks today, or at least shouldn’t. He makes more appeal than most at 18/1 with Bet365.

Samuel Sanchez was second in the MTT and if on that form will go close, plus he has the benefit of being unmarked from a winners percentage, but there’s a huge amount at stake for many today and he may not have the free role some expect.


Advice


2 pts Carlos Betancur (11/4 Boylesports)

1 pt Vincenzo Nibali (9/2 general)

1 pt each/way Rigoberto Uran (18/1 Bet365) 

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