With today’s last – and arguably most fearsome – summit finish
of the Giro D’Itala, the destination of the Magalia Rosa has been fairly
certain for some time. Much like Bradley Wiggins in last year’s Tour De France,
the first time trial and then summit finish has seen Vincenzo Nibali retain a vice like
grip on the race, much to his credit usually on his own despite a strong Astana
side. Today was meant to be the day to end all days, with three fearsome
summits after a brutal stage 19, but the weather has put paid to all but the
Tre Cime di Lavaredo, for all that it’s a brutal test which should have
everybody on guard.
While the Maglia Rosa looks safe – Nibali has four minutes
in hand – the battles for second – with just 10 seconds separating Rigoberto
Uran and Cadel Evans (currently second,
and also aiming to take the red jersey from our tip Mark Cavendish), and
even less in the battle for the white jersey of best young rider between Carlos
Betancur and Rafal Majka, which has been the best story of the race so far for
many people’s money.
 |
| The finish of today's stage |
Today’s finish (of which the profiles is pictured) can be seen in one of two ways; A 21KM slog
or three separate climbs. The Passo De Croci ramps up sections of 12”% with an
average of 7% overall, which will remove the wheat from the chaff as far as
climbing is concerned, before a long and steady descent before the Dogana
Vecchia, where there’s 1KM at 6.5%, false flats for another, the short but
steep Col Sant’Angelo,
which has an average of 10.6 and sections of 18, and then the truly brutal 3Km
finish to Crime Di Lavaredo, which is never less than 11.2% and has extended
sections of 18%. Put simply, whatever your style, an exceptional climber is
needed for this.
 |
| The last 3KM of today, which is an average of 12.4% |
The stage
betting is dominated by the main men of the race, and one would think that
given the bonus second on offer and the nature of the podium and white jersey
battles, they’ll fight this out. Nibali’s Astana team has to do nothing but
follow Cadel Evans and Uran – who themselves will fight for second and third
today - to keep him safe, which does rains the question of a break going even
though Betancur and Majka will surely want a time bonus to seal the jersey.
Thanks to the
domination of Mark Cavendish and Movistar, each winning four stages - Ag2r La
Mondiale, Androni Giocattoli, Blanco, BMC Racing, Cannondale, Euskaltel-Euskadi,
FDJ, Lampre-Merida, Orica-GreenEdge, Radioshack-Leopard, Saxo-Tinkoff and
Vacansoleil-DCM – are all yet to win a stage and depending on the makeup
of the day they could get away on the flats – however the sheer brutality of
the last climb will shell out all but the best going uphill. The best of the
big prices looks to be Giovanni Visconti with two stages to his name already,
but he was fortunate that the main group watched each-other on the Col Du
Galiber and it mayt be best to look towards the top of the market.
Carlos Betancur
– who has three second places so far this year, along with his third behind
Santambrogio and Nibali on the Jafferau – is a worthy 3/1 favourite for this
stage and essentially the white jersey with it, on a climb that gives numerous opportunities
to attack and also stay away before the final fierce ramps. It’s a surprise to
see Rafal Majka so much bigger than him, but through the Giro the results point
only to one man he may have the help of Domenico Pozzovivo – out of the running
for any prizes as well – to boot. Nibali’s 58 second win over Samuel Sanchez
confirms that he’s the best climber in the race by some distance, but with that
as a stage win, it remains to be seen how committed he is and he surely only
wants to seal his victory today; That said, he is worth a small wager still.
Rigoberto Uran has been fairly quiet since his win at Altopiano Del Montasio,
but with 10 second separating him form the runners up spot he’s surely going to
have a decent crack at him today and with Nibali being 4 minutes to the good,
he won’t be in a hurry to chase down any attacks today, or at least shouldn’t. He
makes more appeal than most at 18/1 with Bet365.
Samuel Sanchez
was second in the MTT and if on that form will go close, plus he has the benefit
of being unmarked from a winners percentage, but there’s a huge amount at stake
for many today and he may not have the free role some expect.
Advice
2 pts Carlos
Betancur (11/4 Boylesports)
1 pt Vincenzo
Nibali (9/2 general)
1 pt each/way
Rigoberto Uran (18/1 Bet365)
No comments:
Post a Comment