The phrase ‘good things come to those who wait’ is very true
for many sportsmen and sporting teams, and that phrase runs particularly deep
for today’s Heineken Cup final, with both Clermont and Toulon well versed in
the hurt that knockout rugby can so often provide in recent seasons.
Clermont, tournament favourites ever since knocking out
Challenge Cup winners and reigning champions Leinster with two defeats in the
pool stages, won their first French Championship in 2010, after 10 defeats in
the final before, and in Europe the story has been a similar one, as since
their Challenge cup win they’ve been unlucky enough to twice face Leinster in
the knockout stages, having been desperately unlucky not to win their semi
final last year when Fofana’s failure to ground the ball on the lie in the last
minute cost them the semi final.
Toulon, reinvigorated by Mourad Bouejdall’s heavy investment
since he arrived in 2006, have become one of the best sides in Europe thanks to
an influx of new stars. Beaten by a total of just 6 points in two championship
finals last year, one gets the feeling that trophies are tantalisingly close
for the men from the south coast.
This year, the pair drew 13 points clear of the previous
years’ winners Toulose and the rest of the Top 14, while no team has been able
to beat either of the two in Europe except Montpellier, who themselves need the
win for a quarter final spot while Toulon were through – fair to say that these
two teams are closely matched.
Bookmakers give Clermont, who have been the strong
tournament favourites since the pool stages, a 3 point handicap but there’s
good reason to think that the gap should be even tighter. In their two league
meetings this season Clermont needed a last minute Brock James penalty – given
for infringement – to edge a hard fought home encounter and Toulon salvaged a
draw at Marsellie thanks to a long range Matt Giteau penalty, although had Alexis
Palission not had an intercept one could argue that a ‘second string’ Clermont
would have won in Toulon’s backyard.
Clermont, the most impressive side in this year’s
tournament, are rightful favourites, even if only slightly, and boast the
greater attacking capabilities based on what we’ve seen of them in this
season’s knockout stages, for all that Toulon’s methodical approach is more
down to a preferred gameplan and the strongest club pack in Europe giving the
evergreen Johnny Wilkinson – boasting a 100% kick rate at this late stage of
the competition. To assume that Clermont don’t have the same capabilities would
be ridiculous, but if the weather stays reasonably dry then they’ll look to cut
loose like they did for the first half of their semi final against Munster and
for most of their quarter against Clermont. If they can build similar momentum
here, the question of them winning today won’t be about if they can make the
chances, but how many they can take.
Clermont threatened to destroy Munster at one point in their
semi but only ever had a lead of 13 points, after which they were on the
retreat to end a game where they were inferior at the breakdown and seriously
threatened by Ronan O’Gara’s game management – Toulon will bring the same
threat to the table but with far more quality in their ranks.
However Toulon, as strong as they are, have been unable to
beat Clermont recently and will go head to head against a pack able to match
them, along with a backline capable of cutting anyone apart. Readers and
followers of this blog – written very much by a Clermont man – are already
sitting pretty, with a lumpy stake on Clermont to win supplemented by wagers on
Toulon and also Clermont to reach the final, but this game looks too tight to
call and a small wager on the draw – either to trade is an absolute must.
With two of the best defences in Europe going head to head,
along with the high stakes nature of the match, there may be an absence of
tries and under 2.5 tries makes appeal at 8/11 with Ladbrokes. Both of Toulon’s
games in the knockouts have been tryless – a little short but not without its
merit at 7/1 with Ladbrokes - while Clermont scored only once against Munster.
Should the heavens open, then the appeal becomes even greater.
Advice
1 pt Draw (20/1 Bet365)
1 pt No tryscorer (7/1 Labdrokes)
3 pts Under 2.5 tries (8/11 Ladbrokes)
2 pts Toulon (7/1 general)
2 pts Clermont to reach final (5/1 Skybet, Ladbrokes)
1 pt Dylan Armitage (16/1 Ladbrokes)
1 pt Mike Brown (50/1 general)
1 pt Wesley Fofana (66/1 general)
1 pt Naipolioni Nalaga (14/1 Ladbrokes)
1 pt Timonici Matanavou (20/1 Paddy Power)
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