Kentucky Derby 2013

11.24 Churchill Downs

Kentucky Derby Presented By Yum! Brands (Grade 1) (3yo) (Dirt) (3yo)

Winner: £760,736 Runners: 20 Distance: 1m2f

Advice: 1 pt win Orb (5/1 general), 1 pt each/way Itsmyluckyday (12/1 general)

Oxbow: Unable to land a blow behind Violence in the Cashcall as a 2yo; Deeply impressive in Lecomte Stakes on seasonal reappearance and hasn’t had things quite go his way since, for all that he was well held behind Overanalyse last time; Hard to envisage on that form.

Revolutionary: One of Todd Pletcher’s five contenders and on a roll coming here, tenacious when getting better of Mylute in stretch battle for the Lousiana Derby latest (wide in the straight); Set for inside track ride from stall three and if getting all the gaps he needs, realistic contender; Breeding gives hope he’ll handle the off track and one to relish a hot pace.

Golden Soul: Looks to have a hard task given just how far he was behind Mylute and Revolutionary last time in the Lousisana Derby and others make more appeal.

Normady Invasion: Has only one win to his name but given his best on all occasions and far better than able to show when fifth in Risen Star Stakes (everything that could go wrong went wrong that day) and today’s pace setup will surely suit better than when unable to land a blow off fairly slow pace when second to Verzzano; Hard to judge if he’d have won but today should suit him more than most.

Mylute: Comes here as an outsider but would have to be given some sort of chance based on the form he showed even when outbattled by Revolutionary in the Louisaiana Derby; Needs to find more and others preferred even if not impossible to see him making improvement.

Giant Finish: Could only be third in the Sprial Stakes at Turfway Park (behind withdrawn Black Onyx); Maybe that he liked fast dirt the most but worst run came on sloppy and lot of work to do.

Goldencents: Minor upset in the Santa Anita Derby after Sham Stakes win, tracking only a fair pace (rival and runner up Flashback went too hard in the San Felipe before back) but drawing right away from third in company with Flashback; With gate of eight, could find himself in prime position early but mustn’t chase too hard; Still, one of the bigger chances in field and should go well.

Overanalyse: Below form for only previous start here but a better horse now, and lot to like about his win over 1m1f at Aquedutct as Juvenile, when he gave 2lbs and beating to Normady Invasion; Time was slow according to seasoned clockwatchers in Arkansas Derby but that was the only negative about dominant showing and may have better to offer still.

Palace Malice: Only start on sloppy was decent and nothing better; Third in the Risen Star after getting less than no run in the Luisana Derby but wouldn’t be a fan of the way that he was outbattled in the blue Grass and that looks weaker than a lot of form this year; Others proffered and weakest of Pletcher five.

Lines Of Battle: Taking the route that two other recent contenders from this yard made, and very good in winning UAE Derby latest even if tactically proficient ride and slowly run race flattered him to some extent; Big question is if he’ll handle sloppy dirt, although slight hope in pedigree; Needs more today but looks as if he had lots left to give at end of UAE Derby and no biggest suprise if he could go well.

Itsmyluckyday: Improved hand over fist this year, winning Gulfstream Park Derby and Holy Bull Stakes (broke track record there) in good style, beating Shanghai Bobby; No answer to Orb in Florida Derby but that his first run for two months and having won on sloppy track, entitled to get whole lot closer; Stamina only a slight question and one to go well.

Falling Sky: Hard to see him landing a proper blow given how he was well behind Overnalyse and Frac Daddy Latest, along with Verrazno and Java’s War the time behind that; Needs more.

Verrazano: The only unbeaten runner in the field, having won all four of his starts as a 3yo, deeply impressive on debut and then when coasting home to Tampa Bay Derby win; Kept his unbeaten record at Aqueduct but get the feeling that he must improve upon Wood Memorail win where Normady Invasion was closing hi down despite prominent sit off sedate pace; One of main contenders but others make more appeal.

Charming Kitten: Huge negative that this is his first start on dirt of any kind and even then, behind Java’s War and Palace Malice latest.

Orb: Only won one of four starts as 2 year old but tremendous improver upped in trip and also going with age, beating previously impressive Violence in Fountain Of Youth and then a clear cut winner of Florida Derby latest, never stronger than at the finish considering that the race was slowly run (Itsmyluckyday in second, had previously won well twice before); Must go close off the back of that and sloppy track on breeding should be no problem; Top chance.

Will Take Charge: Overcame a troubled run to nab stablemate Oxbow (himself drawn wide and tiring late) in Grade 2 latest; Not impossible if everything drops right for him but others look more soild.

Frac Daddy: Has form on muddy at least and nice bounce back from training issues and poor run (doubt he’d have beaten Orb though) when second to Overanalyse latest, although that a well beaten second; Needs more.

Java’s War: Second to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby and did more to frank his form than anything when landing Blue Grass Stakes latest by a head; Could get closer to prinicpals if they burnout upfront but others still suited to that and can do better.

Vyjack: On a roll, having won his last four starts including Grade 2 and 3 at Aqueduct before close third in Wood Memorial (excited race a sick horse, which gives him a lot of credit) Widest gate gives him all to do and hard to recommend from there.

VERDICT: A competitive running made even more difficult by the sloppy track. That does little to dampen enthusiasm for the chances of ORB, who was superb in the Florida Derby and promises to still improve more for the extra furlong and faster pace, while his breeding gives hope that he’ll be OK on this track. Ever impressive at the end of the Florida Derby, ITSMYLUCKYDAY was coming off a long break that day and as one of the few to be proven on sloppy, makes appeal as the saver here, beating Goldencents, who also looks sure to go well, to our runner up spot. Revolutionary and Overanalyse can also go well, while Verazzano has a stamina query after the wood and Normandy Invasion may enjoy this race more.