The Premiership has long been a closed shop in terms of the
winners – Wasps, Sharks and Leicester Tigers had dominated the scene until Saracens
won the Grand Final of 2011 and Harlequins won last year – and the Tigers can
end the champions reign at the top and re-assert their status at the knockout
kings of English rugby. Leicester found only Saracens too strong in the
traditional season, finishing 5 points clear of Harlequins thanks mainly to
losing and try bonus points, but have finished their season – in traditional
Tigers style – in far stronger fashion than their opponents.
Since March – coming of the back of losses to Harlequins at
the Stoop and Saracens when their Internationals were away – Leicester have
lost just one game, and that in itself was a last a gap one point defeat
against Bath at the Rec, with a 36-8 romp against Northampton at Franklins
Gardens being their outstanding performance, not to mention a seven point
defeat to Heineken Cup finalists and European giants Toulon in a game that could
easily have gone their way.
Harlequins have found some form late in the season when they
needed it but they’ve had a limp ending to the season going by their high
standards. Two of their three defeats in Febuary were totally understandable –
Saracens have been nigh on impossible to beat at their new home of the Allianz
and Gloucester edged a very tight encounter – but their Heineken Cup quarter
final defeat to Munster exposed them physically and bough about that age old
problem of being unable to do anything different than their wonderful
offloading game.
Taken apart then at the breakdown by Tommy O’Donnell,
Donnacha O’Ryan and Co, and in Julian Salvi and Tom Croft they face a similar
challenge today, and in Leicesters’ backline, also one that has total flexibility
with play. International halfbacks Toby
Flood and Ben Youngs have had a superb end to the season and are comfortable
either running or kicking the ball to great effect, making the possibility of a
second half barrage after a pack fight in the first 40 a great possibility.
With rain around, handling conditions could become tricky, and while Nick Evans
is excellent at controlling play, it looks as if Leicester have the advantage
on that end, even if Danny Care has been in a rich vein of form.
There’s also a concern about Quins in the tight 5. Ed Slater
maybe around but Geoff Parling is one of the finest locks in the northern
hemisphere, and the same goes for Dan Cole at tighthead while Tom Youngs too
can make a huge impact. If anything should happen to Cole, Martin
Castrogiovanni is a fine replacement.
Quins have won the last three meetings and four of the five
between the sides including last season's final, but only once have they played
the Flood/Youngs combination and at this stage (any semi final) they’re looking
for their 13th straight win against a resurgent side which if
anything, looks to have improved since last year. There’s a handicap of 6
points and that can be passed, but a home win by 1-12 points seems better value
– it’s hard to imagine them winning by 13 points especially if it rains at some
point during the game – but the real bet of the week is the home win double of
Leicester and Saracens – Saracens haven’t been beaten at the Allianz yet and
finished 12 points clear of Saints in the regular season.
Advice
2 pts Leciester to win by 1 -12 points (11/8 general)
6 pts Leicester-Saracens final (10/11 Skybet)
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