It was an outstanding moment in a year of sporting years
when Sir Bradley Wiggins crossed the finish line in Paris last year to become
the first British Tour De France winner and now he looks to broaden his
palmares and the appeal of British road cycling with a victory in the Giro
D’Italia.
And if the bookmakers are right, then Britain will once
again be taking note of cycling in 24 days and celebrating a famous victory,
but winning this year’s Magalia Rosa could well be Wiggins’ biggest achievement
of his career. That would sound absurd to those who watched the Tour De France
last year, where Wiggins beat second favourite and main rival Vincenzo Nibali
into third by 6 minutes, but in hindsight, Wiggins would never have had a finer
opportunity to win any Grand Tour. With 101KM of mostly flat individual time
trialling, and only three summit finishes – with the first one coming a week
into the race, it was tailor made for Wiggins alone, although to have a rider
capable of winning a Grand Tour riding for him in Chris Froome along with the
incredibly powerful ‘Sky Train’ was always going to make taking time off him
nigh impossible.
Wiggins has only recently declared an ambition to defending
his title but this has been the target primarily because it was seen as being a
much more manageable target – as well as one of the open gaps on his Palmares
at 32 – but everything points to this being a far harder individual task than
last year’s tour. There are a total of seven listed summit finishes, and all of
them are there to be won by main rival Vincenzo Nibali – the superior climber
of the two main favourites and probably the best in this field – with each
offering a 20 second bonus for winning. It should also be noted that the 6
medium mountain stages – far harder to control and always suited towards
attackers – are steep enough to create significant gaps.
Wiggins has not been carrying all before him in the way that
he did last year, with a pair of fifth placed finishes in the Volta a Catalunya
and Giro Del Trentino. However it’s clear that he’s been aiming for this all
season and the absence of a time trial in either of those two races probably
put him at an advantage, and a bigger worry would be the lack of velocity he
showed after kickstarting an exciting finish towards the first summit finish in
Spain, but we all know about the wealth of physical aid that he possess and to
see him in anything other than peak conditions would be a massive shock, and we
had yet to see Wiggins come out of the saddle when an gearing problem ended his
Giro before it started – he’s switched to mechanical gears.
At 55KM, next Saturday’s time trial is longer than either of
the two where – excluding Froome – he put upwards of a minute into the field,
including taking 2.09 from Nibali on the roads from Arc-et-Senans to Besançon –
in last year’s Tour, and despite the time trial prowess of defending champion
Ryder Hesjedal and the notable improvements Nibali has strived to make against
the clock, he should be able to build up a significant lead against his rivals
to take into the rest of the Giro, although it will need to be far bigger than
in France given the nature of the last two weeks – the Dolomites present
similar circumstances to the 2010 Vuelta where Wiggins cracked even with Froome
in attendance. The team time trial on stage two could also allow him to take
time out of Nibali though – Sky won that event at Trentino recently and while
the last time trial is a punishing one, he has previous form going uphill
against the clock, including a win in Paris-Nice last year.
Nibali has probably been the most in form grand tour rider
so far this season - barring Froome - since coming back into Europe from Oman, taking Tirreno Adriatico
from Froome after a brutal three time loop of a climb at well over 20%, while
then destroying everyone but Viva Fantini’s Santambrigogio in the Trentino
finale to win well, and this is a golden chance for a win on home soil with
summit finishes galore backed up by time bonuses. The key factor for him
however, will be being able to break a train that includes last year’s seventh
and ninth Rigoberto Uran and Sergio Henao, along with strongmen Dario Cataldo
and Kanstanstin Siutsou – something he was unable to do last year. He should be
able to get away once or twice – although with such strength in depth Sky may
well send riders to snap extra bonus seconds from him – but if in in top shape,
Wiggins can complete step two of a mission to win cycling’s three Grand Tours
and looks the bet. In any case, Nibali looks to be a better bet at 3/1 for the
points jersey, which works for intermediate sprints and stage wins, with points
given to the top 15 cyclists going down from 20, 16, 14, 12, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5,
4, 3, 2 and 1 regardless of the stage’s finish. With seven summit finishes and the
6 medium mountain stages well up his street, 3/1 looks to be a far stronger
shout than him winning. With seven stages marked as ‘flat’ – Mark Cavendish may
be too big at 12/1 for this jersey, given that it’s his clear aim for this
year, and if his Omega Pharma outfit is in good form – like at the beginning of
the season – then he could take a hatful of wins and give himself a chance.
The defending champion Ryder Hesjedal has been scarcely
mentioned to this point but logically looks to be the only real contender
towards the top 2. A surprise winner last year, his excellent showing in Liege
Bastone Liege for Dan Martin gives assurance he’ll be ready, although he comes
into this race a marked man for Sky and Astana and it’s hard to see a situation
like last year when he was let go on the road to Monte Cervinia arising again.
That said, he’s strong against the clock – he won the title that way last year
– capable of at least sitting with the best on summit finishes, and has a
Garmin squad that won last year’s team time trial and the last event in the
Tour De France, so looks to be each/way thievery at 8/1 and a rock solid bet
for a top 3 finish. These are the only three in single figures and that looks
fair given their respective pedigrees.
Samuel Sanchez is capable of launching a bold bid up the
climbs but is badly out of form and will need to take huge amounts to consider
pink with Eusktatel likely to lose a lot of time on Stage 2, and finishes of 15th
in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and 18th in Tirreno-Adriatico suggest this won’t be
his year. Michele Scarponi has been in decent nick of late but he’s been so
soundly beaten by Nibali it’s hard to envisage him pushing the big three, and
Cadel Evans’s best days look to be behind him based on his form since an
infection last year.
For a big priced contender, look to Robert Gesink, an
extremely talented Dutchman who was fifth in the 2010 Tour De France and would
be much more highly rated has it not been for injury and illness. Sixth in last
year’s Vuleta after a huge Tour De France crash, it’s surprising to see him
making his Giro debut but he looks a steal at 8/11 for a top 10 finish with
Betfred for those who don't think his podium chances are big enough to touch 40/1. Strong against the clock, he can easily keep pace with the best in the
mountains and may even be a surprise contender if staying upright, with the
mountain time trial and Dolomites holding no fears for him and a solid all
round team – including white jersey contender Wilco Kelderman – he should feel
good about his chances.
Advice - Pink Jersey
5 pts Bradley Wiggins (11/10 Boylesports, 10/11 general)
Advice – Points Jersey
3 pts Vincenzo Nibali (3/1 general)
1 pt each/way Mark Cavendish (12/1 general)
Advice – Top 10 finish
3 pts Robert Gesink (8/11 Betfred)
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