‘Good things come to those who wait’ is not a phrase you’d
associate with Bayern Munich but their astonishing season has been very much
focused upon making amends for their Champions League heartbreak of recent
seasons. Twice beaten finalists in the last three years, Jupp Heynckes’ side
were leading until the very last minutes in their final on home soil last year
only for Didger Drogba’s header to draw them into extra time – the rest, as
they say, is history.
In hot new things Borussia Dortmund – seemingly everybody’s
favourite second team following g three magical seasons in Germany and their
epic run to this season’s final - they face their newest and bitterest rivals
in what should be tremendous final for all to see and the first with two German
teams, and also one which the men in red are widely expected to win.
And a look at this season makes it easy to see why. In their
one man Bundesliga romp this season, Bayern Munich have broken or at least
equalled a phenomenal 25 standing records. Jupp Henyckes side have the most points
in a Bundesliga season, (91, beating the 81 set by Borussia Dortmund in 2011/12),
most wins in a season (29, beating Dortmund’s 25 that they set in 2011/12 and
Bayern’s of 1972/73, best goal difference in a season (80), Fewest goals
conceded in a season (18), fewest away goals conceded in a season (7), Biggest
winning margin, (25 points), fewest defeats in a season (having lost just once,
while never losing on the road), the quickest confirmed title win with 28/34
matches played, the earliest confirmed title win (6th April), the most
away wins and points (15/47), and the most matches without conceding a goal in
a season (21); An exhaustive list, but one that shows just how good they’ve
been. Their progression through the knockout stages, barring one defeat against Arsenal when complacency snuck in for the only time this season, has been equally as startling. Wide margin Serie A Champions Juventus were dismantled both home and away, with the double axis of Javi Martinez and Bastian Schewinsteiger setting up a platform for two 2-0 successes, although that was to be nothing on the destruction of Barcelona both home and away in a remarkable 7-0 aggregate success, taking apart Barcelona like no other team has in their famed Guardola era (even taking into account Barcelona’s managerial problems).
It all leads to them being hot favourites for tonight’s win –
5/6 is the best you will get for a win in 90 minutes – but there’s no way that
tonight’s affair will be as cut and dry as that. Dortmund may have finished 25
points behind Bayern but in the three matches played between them this season
they have lost only once – a 1-0 defeat
in the German Cup – the others being a pair of 1-1 draws in the league.
Many will associate Bayern’s name with European prestige but
Dortmund – who had won the last two
Bundesligas by wide margins – have lost just one in their last 8 competitive
matches against Bayern, the German Cup quarter final, which was conveniently
held at the Allianz Arena.
The 25 point gap between the two in league standings is an
indication of Bayern’s relentless consistency, alongside their obvious class,
but in relation to this game it bears little significance. Dortmund’s previous experiences
with Bayern make them the one side best equipped to handle the hot favourites
and while many are point towards the absence of to be Bayern player Mario
Gotze, Kevin Grosskreutz could help
prevent Bayern going wide, where they’re unquestionably at their most
dangerous, and Marco Reus and Ilkay Gundogan’s direct approach will test Javi
Martinez and Bastian Schweinsteiger to the limit, while Robert Lewanovski’s remarkable
performance against Real Madrid tells us all we need to know about his capabilities.
Dortmund’s aggressive approach could well leave them vulnerable
on the break to the likes of Robben, Ribery, Lahm and especially Thomas Muller,
but there’s no reason to think that Bayern – our ante post tips at 14/1 - should
be odds on and a much more appealing price would be the 14/5 offered by
Ladbrokes that Munich win by one goal, and the 16/5 with Bwin on the game
ending as a draw.
Advice
1 pt Bayern Munich to win by one goal (14/5 Ladbrokes)
1 pt Draw (16/5 Bwin)
Man of the Match: A brief history of Champions League finals
suggests that the Champions League man of the match will come from the player
who scores or assists the winning goal, and to cover both sides winning it
makes sense to cover either side. Since 2005, the man of the match has been
Gerrard (the inspiration behind Liverpool’s comeback), Eto (the scorer of
Barcelona’s equaliser against Arsenal),Inzaighi, (the scorer of Milan’s two goals),
Van Der Sar (who made crucial saves in the penalty shootout), Xavi (assisted
Messi’s goal against United and also Eto’s opener), Miltio (socred both goals
for Inter), Messi (scored Barcelona’s second goal against United), Drogba
(scored Chelsea’s equaliser).
Bayern have no end of candidates but Thomas Muller has
played an integral role for the team for two years, and scored seven goals in
his last eight Champions League matches. With Javi Martinez providing such
stable support at the base of the midfield, Muller has had more freedom than
ever to roam forward and arrive on the scene late, and with Ribery and Robben
cutting inside he can get some excellent opportunities. Capable from the set
piece – he’s headed twice in the Champions League this season – and also
providing great assists, he is appealing at 8/1 for man of the match honours.
So too is Dortmund’s Robert Lewandowski, who just edges
Marco Reus – who has a strong case to be made for him as first goalscorer given
that he’s done so 8 times in the Bundesliga this season – on the basis that he’s
scored 10 Champions League goals this season and has scored 22 in his last 24 appearance
for Dortmund, who try to put everything through him when going forward. If they’re
to win, one imagines that he would have a strong chance of scoring and 9/1 with
Bet Victor appeals.
Advice:
1 pt Thomas Muller (8/1 general)
1 pt Robert Lewandowski (9/1 Bet Victor, 8/1 general)
No comments:
Post a Comment