Tuesday, 7 May 2013

Giro d'Italia 2013 - Stage 4 (Policastro Bussentino › Serra San Bruno (246k/152.9m)


Last year’s Tour De France didn’t get going until Stage 7 but this year’s Giro D’Italia has already been set well alight with the first of 6 medium mountain stages yesterday seeing plenty of fireworks from the top climbers in this race, with most of the main contenders for this year’s Magalia Rosa in the lead group of 16 that finished the race after defending champion Ryder Hesedjal’s attacks (pictured) going uphill and downhill with the help of a strong looking Garmin-Sharp team blew the race apart.


At the end of the day it was actually Cadel Evans, who snatched second in his typical fighting style and took the time bonus towards the end of the line, that gained most, but the stage looks deliciously set for some rapid-fire racing given today’s tasty affair.

This isn’t a summit finish, but there are only 6.7 kilometeres to go to the line after the second category climb of Croce Ferrate – which stretches for over 12KM with parts over 10% and an average of %5.6 and position at the top will be crucial for the run down, which isn’t as fearsome as yesterday (the drop is listed to be just -%2.9).


There’s plenty of flat for a break to get away but the GC riders may well dominate with time up for grabs and the length of the last climb and the men who dominate the Magalia Rosa betting were to the fore yesterday and should exaggerate their superiority this time around on a more testing course.


Any number of riders can be considered, but Hesejdal's looked to be in the best shape yesterday going uphill and especially downhill, and with eight bonus seconds already taken, will want to take more time out of Bradley Wiggins, as he now sits just 17 seconds behind the favourite following yesterday and will consider himself a more proficient time trialist than Vincenzo Nibali, who wasn’t really seen yesterday in the sprit finish but should have his eyes upon today’s climb and descent. Both are solid each/way bets at 10 and 16/1 respectively for the three places – Betfred will give 9 and 14/1 for the pair, with the added incentive of the extra place for fourth as well.


Mauro Santambrogio of the ever present Viva Fantini was a strong fourth yesterday and is a worthy favourite, but presents little value at just 5/1 in a place and the tiger like attitude of Cadel Evans would be a better choice for us, while Samuel Sanchez and Benat Inaxusti will give everything to gain time before Saturday’s time trial and are also worth considering for all that their lack the helping firepower of Astana, Garmin and Sky. Bradley Wiggins is a better descender than most have given him credit for – he improved it hugely to help his successful Tour De France last year – and if he can surround himself with his powerhouses on a climb which is of considerable length then he could put off attacks and potentially get others into difficulty but there’s plenty of evidence to show that he’s not the strongest sprinter and as surprising as it would sound to some, he looks as if he'd be suited by an actual summit finish.

Advice


1 pt each/way Ryder Hesejdal (9/1 Betfred)


1 pt each/way Vincenzo Nibali (16/1 Bet365, 14/1 Betfred) 


Stage Guide (see left): A relatively flat stage until the Category 3 Vibo Valentina and then several lumps and rolling hills until the 12km Cat.2 Croce Ferrarta, the most testing climb seen so far, and then a slight drop before the finish. With Bonuses on offer of 20, 12 and 8 seconds for the first three places, and only 6.7KM from the summit until the finish, today is expected to be all about the GC contenders, who lit up the race yesterday on the final climb and descent and are likely to do the same today. 




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