The first mountain stage in a Grand Tour is normally where
the fireworks start but this year’s Giro D’Italia has been an edge of your seat thriller from the get go, and only now, 10 days in, do we have the first proper
summit finish of the Giro, and it’s a belter of a stage in prospect.
The Altopianio Del Montasio (pictured with percentages) is a giant end towards this
stage, but before that the Passo Cason Di Lanza will sort the wheat from the
chaff. A bumpy climb with a technical descent that drops by 6% for a whole
kilometre before 5 KM’s of climbing which never drops below 10%, with some
parts reaching 16%. Then comes a fearsome drop – again technical – which lasts
until the Altopiano Del Montasino.
The climb is listed to be some 20KM, but the first 10 are
just false flats, although at 2.5% there’s a top chance for a strong pace to be
set – here’s looking at you, Team Sky. Bradley Wiggins’s chances of another
Grand Tour look fairly remote at this moment in time, but these are the kind of
climbs his team is built around – even taking into account a less than regular
gradient. Danny Pate, Kanstantsin Siutsou and Christian Knees are all capable
of setting a very high pace, and with health permitting, Dario Catalado could
set up Henao and Uran for some power pacing when the road kicks up, and while
Sky haven’t been able to control the race so far, this is their terrain – they
were dormant in France until La Planche Des Belles Fillies.
Before the race, we mentioned just how Nibali hadn’t gained
any successful time on Wiggins in the Tour during the mountains, actually
losing 27 seconds over the three weeks. Now Chris Froome was the man who did
most of the damage there, but Sky have any number of riders capable of shutting
down attacks, and putting even the best under immense pressure. It makes
Wiggins a tempting 25/1 shot when some bookamkers have him at 11’s, but the
giant descent after the Passo Cion may be his biggest obsctable mentally and
physically, even though as we speak, it’s dry for the whole stage.
As we speak, the break’s advantage is coming down rapidly –
it’s 4.10 with 56KM left to go – and it’s fair to assume that this will go to
one of the main men in the peloton. A win for Vincenzo Nibali may well end the
race in some people’s opinion, but there’s everything to say that he’s the best
climber in the Peloton and with a team that has plenty of power behind it, he
should be well capable of putting the
squeeze on, while it will take a frankly exceptional team performance to put
him into difficultly. There’s 12’s generally on offer and that has to be worth
a pop. One of the main outsiders mentioned for this race beforehand, Michele
Scarponi’s time trial performance was almost as good as Nibali’s, and sitting
just 1.24 off the lead, he will now feel that the podium is surely a realistic
chance and today he can make a bold bid to start a serious challenge today, and
he makes just slightly more appeal than Cadel Evans, who will be a marked man
for sure in in the closing stages.
Advice
1 pt each/way Michele Scarponi (10/1 Betfred)
1 pt each/way Vincenzo Nibali (12/1 Coral, 10/1 general)
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