Giro d'Italia - Stage 14 2013 (Cervere → Bardonecchia)

With one week left of the Giro D’Italia, the battle for the Magalia Rosa has come down towards two main favourites. Not surprising, some might say, but to see Cadel Evans as the only rider within two minutes of Vincenzo Nibali, while testament to the Italian’s superb performance so far this year and that of a rider who many – yours truly included – fought was fading from the limelight, is a surprise at this moment, for all that with the brutal end of the second week in the Dolomites, there is plenty of time for rapid changes.

While just the second summit finish of the race, today’s 14^th stage takes into the Alps for what should be a festival of climbing, but thanks to adverse weather, has been modified. Tomorrow’s trek into France is under serious threat, and todays steady climb towards Sestire, a long 16KM ramp that would have shelled out plenty of non climbers, has already been taken out.

That’s not to say that with opportunities reduced until the coming weekend, plenty won’t go to attack Nibali and Evans – who themselves will throw a good couple of punches at eachother, and today’s climb to Jafferau (seen left), which puts the capital ‘s’ in ‘stiff finish’, gives great opportunity for firework, Although fairly short at 7.25KM, it averages 9%, never dropping below 8.6%, with sections of 14% in places – and even the finish doesn’t flatten out, sloping all the way towards the line.

It’s likely to be dominated by the GC contenders and hopefuls, who all have a lot of work to do if they want to threaten Vincenzo Nibali, but the Italian, quickly turning into a Grand Tour force, looks in complete control and will be hard to beat today regardless of whether he decides to trade blows with other contenders, or a team such as Astana or Sky can sit and make a pace to burn all others – difficult on such a short climb. While only third on the Altopiano Del Montasio, he looked comfortable at all times and was convicting in the sprint for thrird. At his best on climbs such as these, he won’t let himself be too far away from the action and all the evidence is here to suggest that he is very much still the best rider in this race.

Wether Rigoberto Uran will be given the same leeway as he was when such a convicting winner on Altopiano Del Montasio is up for debate, but he was explosive in the last 8KM’s and a climb like this – tough, but short, is crying out for another attack to give himself genuine designs’ on the race lead. With Team Sky working for him he has no end of tactical options, and at a generous 9/1 in places (8’s with Coral, who pay four places) he makes more appeal on a price basis that favourite Carlos Betancur, who heads a win threat for A2GR – who look to have prime future talents in him and Domenco Pozzovivo. Both, as well as Cadel Evans and youngers Santambrogio and Majaka, will be present on the finale.

Advice

1 pt each/way Vincenzo Nibali (7/1 general)

1 pt each/way Rigoberto Uran (8/1 Coral (4 places), 9/1 general)