2,000 Guineas 2013

3.50 Newbury

Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (205th Running) (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £226,840

Advice: 3 pts Cristforo Colombo to beat Garswood (4/5 Hills), 1 pt each/way Cristforo Colombo (14/1 Stan James, 12/1 general)

Already Advised: 2 pts Dawn Approach to win Dewhurst and the 2,000 Guineas (7/1 Ladbrokes, 13^th October 2012),1 pt each/way Toronado, Derby, (30^th April)

Correspondent: Strode away from opposition in maiden and novice on AW but beaten soundly by Mooojahim in Greenham and not good enough to consider backing him here.

Cristforo Colombo: Promising juvenile campaign last year, an easy winner on debut at Navan before never quite having things go his way afterwards, caught wide in Coventry behind Dawn Approach, not liking soft ground in Ireland afterwards, and then finding 6f far too short here in Middle Park; Steps upto a mile for the first time today back on a fast surface and that could be the making of this son to 2008 winner Henrythenavigator; Potential each/way value with cheekpieces for the first time.

Dawn Approach: Flagbearer of top class sire and part namesake New Approach (second in 2008 renewal), unbeaten in six races as a juvenile including very strong Coventry Stakes (beat Cristforo Colombo) and then National and Dewhurst Stakes in fine style, taking some time to pass pacemaker Letir Mor but never stronger than at the finish and sure to relish the extra mile; The one to beat.

Don’t Bother Me: Huge amount to find despite solid seconds in Listed events.

Garswood: The buzz horse of the last two weeks based on impressive Free Handicap win where he cruised through most of field and was able to idle at the end, and can improve still from that (should get a mile on visual evidence, although not guaranteed on pedigree); Goes without saying that this is a far harder test for him today though, exciting as he is.

George Vancouver: One of the best 2yos around by the end of last year after difficult mid season, but 1m and fast ground the making of him as impressive Breeders’ Cup win showed; Surprising to see him at such a big price given the nature of that success but well held behind Dawn Approach when pair last met.

 Glory Awaits: Out of his depth here despite solid efforts since winning maiden last June

Kyllachy Rise: Potentially one to note for the future given that Henry Cecil sees fit to put him in here, and plenty of promise in 1m maidens at Goodwood and Newbury, but this asks too much.

Letir Mor: Busy as a 2yo, making the pace to Dawn Approach in Coventry, National and Dewhurst Stakes and doing sound job on all three occasions; Same job today.

Mars: Carries reputation as big as any in this field and his yard and backed that up with deeply impressive 7f AW win last July (stablemate won as he liked next time out but couldn’t land a blow in the Dewhurst), although he’s not been seen since; No doubting his talent for all that this a huge change and may do better with time.

Moohaaajim: Impressive last year in Mill Reef and turned a 2 & ¼ length defeat into a half length defeat when close second in Mill Reef here (ahead of Cristforo Colombo, trip didn’t suit him); Went much the best in Greenham on return but found disappointingly little there and gave impression stamina a problem today.

Toronado: Deeply impressive winner of first two starts last year although he did look to have future over further when winner of Champagne Stakes last year (canny ride from front but the best horse on the day) but couldn’t fail to be more impressed with his return in the Craven when destrying two decent rivals giving 3lbs; Serious chance on that form and could improve further, so has to be serious player.

Van Der Neer: Only defeat in four starts came in Racing Post Trophy when he didn’t look in love with the surface and ran to similar level when winning Listed warm up with ease; Been dismissed rather soon given strength of that form and may be of potential interest especially if leaders overdo it early on.

VERDICT: A strong and exciting looking renewal for a classic crop that has it all to gain following the disappointments last year’s best had against their elders. If the betting and stables are to be believed then everyone’s placing for places behind Dawn Approach and Toronado, who have both shown signs of being exceptional at one time or another and have the best form. Having backed dawn Approach in a Dewhurst/Guineas double, and also Toronado for the Derby earlier this week, there’s no value in backing one of them again, and CRISTFORO COLOMBO, who never got the rub of the green as a juvenile, makes appeal to shake up the big two stepped up to a mile on fast ground for the first time, while also making appeal in a head to head bet with Free Handicap winner Garswood, who has a huge step up in class here. Aidan O’Brien’s other pair of Mars, who could be anything, and George Vancouver, who proved that he’ll love conditions when a clear cut Breeders’ Cup winner last year.