Lockinge Stakes 2013

3.50 Newbury

JLT Lockinge Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Str) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £110,159

Advice: 1 pt win Cityscape (5/1 Paddypower)

Ajamaaheer: Closely matched with Trumpet Major on last August’s form, when he got no run until too late; Creditable appearance in Listed event but ran down by inferior type and will need to find a huge amount of improvement to be involved here.

  

Amaron: Frontrunning winner of Group 1 in Italy on final start of last year but better form when third at Saint-Cloud on reappearance, but this far removed from either of those.

Chil The Kite: Progressive over a mile last year, winning two valuable handicaps and Chantilly listed race, and arguable that his third in Bet365 Mile was an improvement once again, for all that he needs far more than that to challenge today; Headgear enlisted but likely fighting losing battle.

Cityscape: One of the premier milers around, destroying his field at Meydan nearly a year ago and following that up with plenty of decent efforts, behind Farhh by 8 lenghts at Sandown when failing to stay Coral Eclipse trip, and then posting three excellent efforts; Now 7 but with Frankel and Excelebration gone, this season as crucial for him as ever.

Declaration Of War: Rich promise before move to Ballydoyle, and shown no end of promise in three wins since stable debut fourth in Curragh Group 3, winning twice at 10f in good style; Reappearance win (1m, second win on ground worse than good) was also deeply impressive, and no doubting that he should come on greatly for that reappearance, as well as a well run race on good ground, but this an acid test of his potential.

Farhh: Rapidly progressive last year, winning first four starts in style including Thirsk Hunt Cup, and arrived at top level with unlucky third in Prince of Wales’s Stakes; Way he pulled clear with Nathaniel (well ahead of Cityscape in third) in Eclipse suggests that he’s a 10 furlong horse, but lacks no small amount of speed and should be thereabouts at finish.

Fencing: Didn’t go on as sixth in the 2,000 Guineas suggested that he could do, but that a very poor renewal from weak crop; Gelded over winter, and that looked to have made a difference based on comprehensive win from Sovereign Debt in 1m Listed race at Ascot latest; Possible he can improve more but would really need to find something to land this.

Libranno: Frontrunning win over 7f at Newmarket now made it group wins at two, three and four, but that very different situation to one given here and get the feeling he doesn’t stay 1m properly, or at least not well enough to win race of this nature.

Penitent: Outsider here after two disappointing runs this season, but if back to the form that saw him land Group 2 and then come second at Longchamp, then not without place chance, for all he needs far more here.

Reply: Here to make good pace for stablemate.

Soverign Debt: Promise about him last year, especially when second in Group 3 at Sailisbury, and good return here, for all that Fencing had well and truly had race sown up when he made his run and he’s behind Cityscape on Ascot form last year; Needs more here.

Trumpet Major: Can be on and off form, noted by his fourth in Guineas, and then Group 3 at Goodwood; Disappointing since, but return in Bet365 Mile one of promise; Looks exposed as below top class however.

VERDICT: A strong renewal considering that last year’s 1-2 of Frankel and Excelebration are now retired. Declaration of War brings endless promise to the table for Ballydoyle, with a well run race on good ground promising to suit an unexposed type who had been touted as a Breeders’ Cup Classic horse last year, such was the regard in which he was held, but the reality is that he’s faced nothing like this before and his price owes far too much to repuatation. Farhh and CITYSCAPE are both Group 1 performers, and are closely matched on their best form, with slight performance for Roger Charlton’s charge on the basis that a purely well-run mile when fresh will bring out the best in him.