Three quarters of the way through the Masters, swinging away
comfortably, tracking the leaders with aplomb despite several wayward drives of
the tee, I had made the decision that sooner rather than later, Tiger Woods would
win a major and that I would be onboard. Today’s Players Championship –
commonly known as the fifth major, and one of few tournaments which is played
on the same turf year in year out – is as good an opportunity as you’ll get to
back Tiger at a half decent price outside of majors, but one for which he makes
absolutely no appeal.
Woods was in a rich vein of form before the Masters and in
sensational form on the greens, with his game let down by some wayward driving,
which even his wonderful scrambling game couldn’t save, as he tied for fourth.
However the one thing that should really be bugging anyone over backing him
this weekend is his horrendous Sawgrass record. Since his one win 12 years ago,
he’s finished in the Top 10 just once, and hasx finished outside the top 20
three times as well. At just 15/2, he’s impossible to trust. So too is Rory
McIlroy, who didn’t have the compleling for of some before the Masters and had
a collapse after a turn. A 10th at Qualil Hollow last week does bode
well but he’s missed three cuts here in the last five years and can’t be
enthused about with such a dire track record. Adam Scott, who finally got the
break he deserved when landing his first major, is a past champion here and
should contend, but this is his first start since and while he could well contend,
we’re yet to see how he’ll go post Augusta.
One of Pete Dye’s most famous creations, Sawgrass polarizes
opinion amongst some, especially the iconic 17th hole with an island
finish, but there’s no doubting that it suits one type of player above all –
the short game expert. With no two holes playing the same way, only fairway
finders need apply and the better your tee to green game, the stronger your
chances. Sawgrass’s drainage ensures lightning fast greens, which makes
approach shots the gamebreakers here in no uncertain terms, and few are better
than that at Luke Donald, who was in contention for so much of the masters
before folding on the final day. That can take a lot out of a player mentally,
but his third at Quail Hollow was a very encouraging effort and few players go
better around this course than he does, so at a general 18/1 he makes appeal to
lead our challenge this week – he’s worth backing on the handicap with Paddy Power as well getting three shots.
If we’re going for course specialists, than you would think
that it’s a good idea to have a player who was eighth in 2006, fourth in 2010,
and seventh last year. Bo Van Pelt disappointed a little in the Masters, with
his putting game not quite holding up the excellent gains that he made off the
tee, but was right back to his best in the Wells Fargo Championship, where
nobody bettered his score for the last three rounds combined. At 50/1 (45 for
those who want the extra each/way place), he looks too generous for a really
big effort this week.
Lee Westwood is half the price of Van Pelt but well worth
having in any staking plan for a course that rewards a short game, and in any
case, is playing himself into tournament winning form. He’s a small stretch
away from winning a major yet, but the move towards the US has helped him game
no end and he’s now widely regarded as one of the most fearsome putters on
tour.
Phil Mickleson isn’t your idea of a Sawgrass player – at
least not a typical one – but it’s just impossible to ignore how well he
putted, making 36 straight within 10 feet last week. Bogeys in two of the last
three destroyed his chances but if over that – and he seems to be the type to
get over such a blow – he’s impossible to ignore.
The spot for our last place was a tough pick between Matt
Kuchar – champion last year and always threatening at Augusta until a dire last
round – and Nick Watney, who was tied for the lead after three rounds at Quail
Hollow last week and come tenth, despite slipping badly. With three top 15’s in
a row - including a 13th at Augusta – he looks to be on a real roll
of late and his fourth here two years ago gives us plenty to like.
Advice
1 pt each/way Luke Donald (18/1 general)
1 pt each/way Lee Westwood (25/1 general)
1 pt each/way Bo Van Pelt (50/1 Coral, Spreadex)
1 pt each/way Phil Mickleson (25/1 general)
1 pt each/way Nick Watney (40/1 general)
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