Another day gone, another day closer towards Victory in
Madrid for Joaquim Rodriguez, who has carried our perspective ‘cash’ with pride
so far and made it safely with Contador in the finish yesterday. There was no
advice given yesterday, which as a happy coincidence as the break stayed away yesterday,
largely thanks to the harmless nature of the escapees – the best placed of them
was Kashechkin, at 22:34 down - combined with the winds that split the Peloton
before they kicked on approaching the climb.
Today’s stage may well be the of the queen stage of the
Vuelta and after yesterday’s stalemate between the big three today might be the
day for fireworks given the rest day tomorrow. Today’s finish is the uncategorized
and fearsome Cuitu Nigru with an average gradient of 13.5 % inside the final 3
kilometres that in places will be as steep as 25 per cent. While the past two
days have both featured climbs ahead of the final ascent, the two that precede
today's summit finish are both Category 1, so it’s the biggest, hardest,
longest stage of them all.
It looks tailor made for another epic battle between Alberto
Contador and Joaquin Rodriguez, with the two rightly made joint favourites at
around 2/1 for today’s stage. Being such a short, punchy, intense climber, it’s
often been thought that a long, drawn out, steep finish would suit Alberto who
to his credit has been the clear second best of this tour and been a highlight
of the action with his constant attacks, but he’s been beaten nine times in
stage head to heads by Rodriguez so far and may well be beaten again today, to
the 11/5 with Pinnacle for a Stage win and the 3/4 for him to beat Alberto in
the finish gives insurance over the threat of a breakaway as well, so he gets
the choice.
With Chris Froome dropping out badly – understandable after
the season he’s had – Alejandro Valverde is enjoying a wonderful renaissance,
carrying on from the Tour De France, and he looks a bit of value to finish in
the top 3 today it’s an elite finish, of which there is every possibility. Names
such as Igor Anton should also be there and thereabouts but look a step or two
behind the major names.
Advice
1 pt Joaquim Rodriguez (2/1 Paddy Power)
2 pts Joaquim Rodriguez to beat Alberto Contador (3/4
Ladbrokes)
1 pt Aljeandro Valverde to finish in top 3 (evs Bwin)
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