They say that all good things must come to an end and the Vuelta A Espana sees the last meaningful stage – there’s no real racing tomorrow into Madrid barring a sprint finish – for anyone wanting to win the race, and it should go out with a gigantic bang fitting of the spectacle we’ve had throughought the two weeks.
Today’s finish is the Bola Del Mundo, “a very difficult, dangerous climb, according to none less than Alberto Contador with 23-percent ramps up a narrow, concrete service road north of Madrid which has been used just once before – and that when Vincenzo Nibali fought off constant attacks from Ezequiel Mosquera in a tantalising preview of the kind of fight that we could see in today’s stage. Before that, there are not one, not two, but four categorized climbs, two of them Category 1 affairs with a Category two stuck inbetween for good measure.
This should come down to the three riders who have dominated all of the Vuelta so far – Joaquim Rodriguez, Alberto Contador, and Alejandro Valverede – with Purito, who had been so dominant until Contador’s brilliance on Stage 17 marginal favourite for today’s climb, which is fair given that he’s beaten him 9 times so far in this Vuelta and won 3 stages himself. The harder, more drawn out climbs are meant to suit Contador over Purito but Cuitu Negru - seen pictured- (an average gradient of 13.5 % inside the final 3 kilometres that in places were as steep as 25 per cent) told us differently and with today’s stage more than long enough to decide this Vuelta, nothing will be left in the tank. You’d hope that a stiff finish such as this should leave the elite fighting hard at the top, but with the descent allowing to help large groups for the breakaway, the match bets might well be the safer option for today, so take the position with Rodriguez at 4/5 to beat his rival, although the 7/4 on a stage win (he has 3 and two second already) is also tempting.
Ajenadro Valverde took 17 seconds out of Contador in a statement of intent yesterday and make no mistake, if El Pistolero shows any weakness the gap (1.35) is more than reducible, while Purito too will be fighting incredibly hard to take any last digs that he can. Valverde has had a tough time since coming back from suspension but has enjoyed a real renaissance of late in this Vuelta and his Movistar teammate Nairo Quintana has proven to be a more than good enough replacement for absent influential team-mate Jose Joaquin Rojas, giving extra push towards his mountain challenges. At 9/1 for this stage he’s really quite tempting, although the 9/10 offered on a top three finish also looks good.
Of the others, Igor Anton and Thomas De Gendt have the profile to succeed, with both knowing theses mountains well and possessing the strength to get up the final climbs, but it’s hard to imagine them being in a position to win the stage without being behind the GC Contenders.
Advice
3 pts Joaquim Rodriguez to beat Alberto Contador (4/5 general)
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