Champagne Stakes 2012

2.25 Doncaster

One Call Insurance Champagne Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1)  (2YO only)

Winner £46,559

Advice: 1 pt Maxientus to beat Birdman (9/10 Bet Victor)

Birdman: Impressive winner at Chepstow following clear Brighton maiden success; proved himself to be group class when chasing down Olympic Glory relentlessly to be beaten just a head in Superlative at Newmarket when just ahead of Maxientus (who really wasn’t enjoying the ground, possibly even moreso than Birdman); Since run well in Ireland and should run well again, although yet to race on ground faster than good.

Dundonnell: Third in July Course maiden on debut before smashing Lingfield maiden on AW (broke the track record which had been long standing) and confirmed merit of that when landing Acomb Stakes at York last time out, idling a little late on but always doing enough and moving really well late on; Should be respected as the one to bear here for all that stop start pace in such small fiueld could be of a major concern.

Maxientus: Had looked to be one of the more promising 2 year olds seen this year when romping his maiden and then dismissing opposition with consummate ease in novice event (beat three previous winners); Third in Superlative Stakes but had looked very good through the race (hit the front two furlongs out) and may have foundered in heavy ground late on; Far too free in the Vintage Stakes when he raced close to a strong pace and may well do much better here.

Tha’ir: Really quite impressive on second start when smashing stablemate and then winning Chesham at Royal Ascot; Surprising manner of last two defeats given how strong he was at finish but raced very close to hard pace in the Vintage Stakes while Solario Stakes winner clearly a class act in making and hard not to think he’s a tempting choice here at prices.

Tornado: 2-2 so far and sign of regard in which he is held that he was sent off just 1-3 for Ascot listed win last time; That was a cosy success although this is his first real acid test of credentials after major step up in class, but fact that he’s been entered in Derby since before debut speaks enough of him (also considered to be Guineas horse) and yard already landed Flying Childers Stakes this week; Should go close.

VERDICT: Dundonell is a popular choice after his Acomb Stakes win and rightly so, but in such a small field there’s the worry of a slow pace and it was clear that didn’t suit him at York last time (like Entifhadaa, who came here having won the Acomb in impressive style). Tornando is seen as one of the two most likely winners and has to be highly regarded, but it would be unwise to ignore Tha'ir – who holds some of the best form in the race – at 7/1 and MAXIENTUS, who ran a terrific race when third in the Superlative on ground he would have hated. He’s 9/10 to beat Birdman in a match bet, which seems like good value on today’s ground. He was last in the Vintage but raced too keenly close to a mentally strong pace, and today should be far different.