St Leger Stakes 2012

3.40 Doncaster

Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £311,905

Advice: 2 pts place Main Sequence (11/10 general), 1 pt place Thomas Chippendale (7/2 general)

Camelot: Long been touted as future superstar since last Autumn and lived upto those expectations with superb wins in Guineas and Derby, utterly thrashing opponents in latter, which leaves him on verge of historical Triple Crown today (would be  the first in 42 years); Struggled badly in Irish Derby on heavy ground, but that same situation will not arise again granted biblican downpour;  Some worry about trip, but he was strongest at the end in the Derby when not pushed out fully despite being asked to make up a lot of ground through the straight; Holds all of this field on that form and rightly a very strong favourite for this today; Hopes that he can make history.

Dartford: In as a pacemaker to ensure a strong gallop for John Gosden’s other pair of contenders.

Encke: Extremely promising as a 2yo, missing Racing Post Trophy after deeply impressive win at Newmarket; Truncated season so far but seemed to have retained all ability when winning handicap on return at Sandown and then pushed Noble Mission to a nose in Goodwood’s Gordon Stakes; Third in Great Voltigeur even better effort and come forward again but hard to see him reversing that form with the first two from there and others make much more appeal.

Guarantee: Impressed many when coming from well off the pace to land hat trick competitive edition of the Melrose handicap at York; Way he won there suggests he’s a Group horse and no surprise to see him coming into play with guaranteed stamina in what should be well run race, but expect to find at least one or too good for him.

Main Sequence: Highly progressive for racing and stepping up in trip, winning two good handicaps at Newmarket and then the Lingfield Derby trial before second in the main event, snatching second on the line from tired runner up; Underlined his class with desperately unlucky fourth in Grand Prix De Paris where he may well have won according to some with clear run; Beaten by a superb ride when a neck second to Thought Worthy at York last time but well capable of turning tables with a strong pace guaranteed; Pedigree doesn’t scream stamina but looked nothing but stayer so very strong show anticipated.

Michaelangelo: Major promise when third behind Nible Mission on debut at Newmarket in Listed events and built on that majorly when then winning Listed event and valuable sales race dropped down in trip to an inadequate 1m2f; Widely expected to win Gordon Stakes off back of that but only third when behind Encke (himself a nose second); Has to do better but get the feeling this trip will really help and Gosden had Masked Marvel come through similar route last year – as well as Artic Cosmos, so respected.

Thomas Chippendale: Improved dramatically with racing to take Newmarket handicap and then King Edward Stakes (where he beat three opponents here) at Ascot; Only fifth in Great Volitgeur but he’s a real stayer at heart, had a 3lbs penalty, pulled too much and then may have found the ground too fast as well; This trip sure to suit him down to the ground (Dam won the Park Hill in 2006), yard in sterling form and should be taken very seriously.

Thought Worthy: Comes here with almost exact profile to brother Lucarno, who came here and won having taken the Great Voltigeur beforehand; Can’t deny his class here although he owes much of his Great Voltigeur win to the superb ride by William Buick (who has kept the faith) in dictating a slow pace and then kicking on at the top of the straight, which caught all of his rivals unaware before he had enough to hold on by a neck; Can go well again even off the stronger gallop but his rivals will represent much more of a threat with today’s gallop.

Ursa Major: Made it four wins from 6 starts when landing a hat trick of wins at the Curragh, all of them in testing conditions around 1m4f upwards; Will stay this trip just fine and his defeat of Hartani deserves a lot of respect, but wonder how he’ll cope with this ground and this a significant step up in class as well; Others preferred.

VERDICT: All eyes are on Camelot to cap off a stunning summer of British racing by taking the Triple Crown and if all goes well – the ground especially has stayed dry to help his cause –he should be capable of making history and it would be brilliant for racing if he does it. The trip might well be a problem if an extreme pace is applied early – likely with John Gosden’s Dartford as a pacemaker here - but he’s never lacked for stamina before and was at his best towards the end of the Derby. His Irish Derby struggle showed that he’s not unbeatable but he hates it heavy and the run inbetween the Derby and now will have done him a world of good, so I’m not looking to get him beat here. The race for the other two places and the runner up spot (if Camelot is actually home and hosed) is a fierce one but with a strong gallop it’s not hard to see MAIN SEQUENCE thriving, having always looked a stayer in waiting since the start of the season. Beaten by Thought Worthy thanks to a masterful ride from William Buick, he can turn the tables over 2 extra furlongs, with a stronger gallop turning the tables in his favour. John Gosden’s charge must be respected and is sure to stay, but I get the feeling Main Sequence lost more than a neck through the pace last time out and can do better here. THOMAS CHIPPENDALE was behind three of these at York but would have hated the slow gallop and will stay this trip as well as any, while he’s3lbs better off. He should really settle better off today’s pace and with the only danger to his chances being quick ground, he looks worth supporting for a place at least today. Michaelangelo should enjoy this trip, and bearing a similarity to the Artic Cosmos from the same stable, he might be worth backing at 8/11 to beat Ursa Major, who’s taking a big step up in class on much quicker ground.