A quite terrific year of Cycling comes to an end – with only minor UCI Tour events to go – when the men take off for the Elite Road Race in the World Championship. Often a difficult event to predict – barring last year’s sprint finish where the course allowed for it - this year’s parcours is one of the most competitive yet.
The main decider is the Cauberg, renowned for its prominent role in the Amstel Gold Race, used in both the TTT and ITT so far this week, used 10 times with a maximum gradient of 12%, part of a leg sapping 265km, which also features 7 short and sharp climbs beforehand over the 100km loop through the province of Limburg, before part two sees us take in winding Bemelerberg (900m with a max gradient of 7%) and the game-changing Cauberg (1.5km with an average gradient of 5.8%), all used 10 times.
To start with finding the winner, the first thing to be done is to exclude the pure sprinters. There may be a 1.7KM flat section to the finish but the sheer amount of climbing done is enough to discount them, with the flat section coming after the 10th use of the Cauberg. The second is to be looking for riders who have a strong record in the Ardennes classics – long races which take in climbing and sprinting, usually like the Amstel Gold, La Fleche Walonne, and Liege Bastogne-Liege – as they bear the most similarities towards a race like today’s instead of pure sprint or mountain stages.
Second is the team strategy and team strength. Mark Cavendish’s victory last year was down to huge amount of work from team GB on the front of the Peloton, and all this had been planned for a good year beforehand (‘Operation Rainbow Jersey’).
Taking all this into account, it’s easy to see why Philippe Gilbert, a two time winner of the Amstel Gold, one of two winners of all three spring classics – and numerous stage races across the world, is a heavy favourite. Gilbert has had a troubled year, yet still won two stages of the Vuelta a Espana with relative ease, beating off a talented cross section of sprinters and punchers including Alejandro Valverde on Stage 19. After an incredible year which brought 18 wins, he’d suffered a huge loss of form and condition, but a successful attack on Stage 9 of the Vuelta was just the tonic. His Belgian team is one of the strongest in the race – De Weert, Devenyns, Meersman, Vansummer, Rolendants, and Boonen if he decided to ride in the team – so the 3/1 avlaible on him winning is fair, if not a little short.
Peter Sagan, a relatively unknown sprinter a couple of years ago, has undoubtedly been one of the highlights of the Tour De France this year with his three stage wins, but he’s got the attitude and skills needed for classics as well. We’ve already seen him on steep uphill climbs, we know he can break, and we know he can outsprint everyone here if it comes down to a bunch sprint, but he’s lost some of the condition that he’d held from his Tour De France exploits by his own admission and does look a touch short.
It’s 10/1 the field bar them, andAlejandro Valverde (far left) looks to be a solid wager at a general 10/1. Second in the Vuelta A Espana this year, Valverde lost a lot of time in the red jersey after crashing early on Stage 3 but was rarely not seen on the finish of a stage afterwards, including relatively flat ending to stages 9, 17, 19, and 21, and as a three time medallist here, he looks like a very solid shout to lead the Spainish challenge and claim his first rainbow jersey today. The Spainish team – most of which may well be riding in support of him- is just incredibly strong with Contador, Rodrgiuez, Friere, Moreno, Sanchez, Flecha and Castroviejo all potentially in support – while we know he’s capable of attacking hard up a climb and sprinting on the flat, so 10/1 – especially with Brefred offering 4 places at ¼ the odds and 9/4 for a medal seem generous.
Simon Gerrans - fourth in the GP De Montreal when trying to follow up from his Québec win -has nothing like the support that Valverde can count upon but his punchy style – a win at the Milan-San Remo is a testament to his ability while he does have Porte, Rogers and Clarke supporting him, so he is worth having in the portfolio both win and place. The Australian team has secured a place on the world championship podium for the last three years, so we have a team with a proven track record
If we’re talking about puncheurs, then the one man who comes to mind instantly has to beThomas Voeckler. One of the most popular riders in World Cycling, Voeckler was one of the highlights of this year’s Tour De France with his ultra-attacking style and heart on his sleeve mentality, and has had the whole of the French team (barring Jerome Coppel, who is in the break ) to help his cause.
Manager Laurent Jalabert has used his full allocation just to create a team that’s set completely around him, which could prove to be a wise move given how well we know Vockler can handle the most brutal stages of the Tour, while he also has a strong classics profile. Fourth and fifth in Amstel Gold and Liege Bastone Liege, he could be massively overpriced at 20’s having talent a real interest in the event.
Advice
1 pt each/way Alejandro Valverde (10/1 Betfred)
1 pt each/way Simon Gerrans (16/1 Betfred)
1 pt each/way Thomas Vockeler (25/1 Betfred)
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